US embassy cable - 01HARARE2970

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002970 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 09/28/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT: MDC MP PREDICTS JANUARY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.  REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN JANUARY? 
--------------------------------- 
 
1.  (C) IN A BRIEF SEPTEMBER 27 CONVERSATION WITH POLITICAL 
SECTION CHIEF, MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) MEMBER OF 
PARLIAMENT DAVID COLTART SHARED HIS VIEWS ON SEVERAL SIMMERING 
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS.  REGARDING THE STILL UNSCHEDULED 2002 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THE MDC MP SAID IT WOULD BE VERY CLOSE, AND 
MOBILIZATION OF VOTERS WAS CRUCIAL FOR BOTH ZANU-PF AND THE MDC. 
HE NOTED THAT THE CONSTITUTION REQUIRES THAT THE ELECTION BE HELD 
WITHIN 90 DAYS PRIOR TO THE EXPIRATION OF THE CURRENT PRESIDENT'S 
MANDATE.  SINCE MUGABE'S MANDATE EXPIRES ON APRIL 1, 2002, THE 
ELECTION MUST BE HELD BETWEEN JANUARY 1 AND MARCH 31.   CURRENT 
ELECTORAL LAW REQUIRES ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE ELECTION BETWEEN FIVE 
AND EIGHT WEEKS IN ADVANCE, AND COLTART SAID SEVERAL SIGNS POINTED 
TO AN EARLY JANUARY ELECTION.  FIRST, IT WILL BE EASIER FOR RURAL 
VOTERS -- ZANU-PF'S TRADITIONAL STRONGHOLD -- TO GET TO POLLING 
STATIONS IN JANUARY, WHEN THERE IS NORMALLY A LAPSE IN THE RAINY 
SEASON, AS OPPOSED TO FEBRUARY AND MARCH, WHEN THE RAINS ARE 
HEAVIEST.  IN ADDITION, THE IMPENDING MAIZE SHORTAGE IS EXPECTED 
TO HIT HARDEST TOWARD THE END OF THE 90-DAY PERIOD.  THIRD, IT 
MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO MOUNT AN EFFECTIVE INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION 
EFFORT SO SOON AFTER THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS.  LAST, IF THE RESULTS 
OF A JANUARY ELECTION ARE INCONCLUSIVE, MUGABE WOULD HAVE TWO 
MONTHS -- UNTIL HIS TERM EXPIRES -- TO MANIPULATE THE PROCESS IN 
HIS FAVOR. 
 
ELECTORAL MISCHIEF 
------------------ 
 
2.  (C) ACCORDING TO COLTART, ZANU-PF'S BOTTOM-LINE STRATEGY IS TO 
INCREASE THE VOTE IN COMMUNAL FARMING AREAS --- WHERE ITS SUPPORT 
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IS STRONGEST -- AND TO SUPPRESS THE URBAN, COMMERCIAL FARMER, AND 
FARMWORKER VOTE -- AMONG WHOM THE MDC ENJOYS SOLID SUPPORT. 
COLTART HAD THE DAY BEFORE VISITED HWEDZA, A TOWN APPROXIMATELY 
150 KM SOUTHEAST OF HARARE TORN IN RECENT WEEKS BY AN INTENSIFIED 
CAMPAIGN AGAINST FARMERS AND FARMWORKERS.  FARMING ACTIVITY HAD 
CEASED ENTIRELY ON 24 OF THE 45 COMMERCIAL FARMS IN THE AREA, 
COLTART REPORTED.  ON 19 OF THOSE 24, THERE WERE NO WORKERS LEFT, 
AS THEY HAD BEEN FORCQINTO HIDING BY ZANU-PF'S MILITIA.  COLTART 
SAID HE HAS TOLD THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) LEADERSHIP 
THAT THEY MUST DO MORE TO PUBLICIZE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN HWEDZA 
AND IN OTHER AREAS.  TOWARD THAT END, HE SUGGESTED THAT THE CFU 
HOLD WEEKLY NEWS CONFERENCES AT WHICH THEY SHOW VIDEO FOOTAGE, BUT 
HE SAID THE ORGANIZATION PREFERS TO KEEP A LOW PROFILE AND AVOID 
BURNING ITS BRIDGES WITH GOVERNMENT. 
 
3.  (C) ASKED WHETHER VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION WOULD KEEP URBAN 
VOTERS AWAY FROM THE POLLS, COLTART SAID NO, BUT MENTIONED OTHER 
TACTICS WHICH COULD KEEP THEM AT HOME ON ELECTION DAY.  ONE WOULD 
BE TO REDUCE SIGNIFICANTLY THE NUMBER OF POLLING STATIONS IN URBAN 
AREAS, MAKING ACCESS TO THE BALLOT BOX DIFFICULT FOR THOSE WITHOUT 
RELIABLE MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION.  HE NOTED THAT 170 POLLING 
STATIONS WERE USED IN BULAWAYO FOR THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN 
JUNE 2000, IN CONTRAST TO 71 FOR THE SEPTEMBER 2001 MAYORAL VOTE, 
ONE POSSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR THE LOW TURNOUT IN THE LATTER 
ELECTION.  COLTART ALSO EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT ZANU-PF MIGHT 
ARRANGE FOR ITS SUPPORTERS TO DOUBLE- OR TRIPLE-VOTE.  ONE 
APPROACH THEY MIGHT EMPLOY, COLTART SURMISED, WOULD BE TO ENSURE 
THAT SELECTED POLLING STATIONS ARE SUPERVISED BY SYMPATHETIC 
PRESIDING OFFICERS WILLING TO OVERLOOK THE INDELIBLE INK PLACED ON 
VOTERS' HANDS WHEN THEY CAST A BALLOT. 
 
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U.S. TRIP 
--------- 
 
4.  (U) COLTART MENTIONED THAT HE WOULD BE IN NEW YORK ON PERSONAL 
BUSINESS FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING OCTOBER 9.  HE ALSO PLANS TO 
VISIT WASHINGTON OCTOBER 15-16, WHEN HE WOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR 
MEETINGS WITH USG OFFICIALS. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5.  (C) THE RULING PARTY'S STRATEGY OF INCREASING TURNOUT IN RURAL 
COMMUNAL AREAS AND SUPPRESSING THE URBAN VOTE IS PROBABLY THE BEST 
METHOD AVAILABLE TO ZANU-PF IN ITS QUEST TO RETAIN POWER.  URBAN 
VOTERS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE DETERRED, HOWEVER, BY MANY OF THE 
OBSTACLES THROWN IN THEIR WAY, AND WE EXPECT THEM TO TURN OUT IN 
LARGE NUMBERS ON ELECTION DAY.  THE RESIDENTS OF CITIES AND TOWNS 
HAVE THUS FAR BORNE THE BRUNT OF ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, AND 
THEY ARE ANXIOUSLY AWAITING THE OPPORTUNITY TO CAST THEIR BALLOTS. 
 
6.  (C) REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE ELECTION, COLTART MAKES A 
LOGICAL CASE FOR EARLY JANUARY.  HOWEVER, A LAPSE IN THE RAINY 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8801 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  EUR-00   VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01   PA-00 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SS-00    TRSE-00 
      T-00     USIE-00  PMB-00   DRL-02   G-00     SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------2A5A7D  051317Z /07 
P 050807Z OCT 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9893 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002970 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 09/28/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT: MDC MP PREDICTS JANUARY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
 
SEASON IS FAR FROM A SURE THING; IN 2000, A DRY SPELL OCCURRED IN 
DECEMBER AND NONE AT ALL THE YEAR BEFORE THAT.  ZANU-PF'S CHIEF 
WHIP IN PARLIAMENT, JORAM GUMBO, TOLD US ON OCTOBER 2 THAT THE 
RULING PARTY WOULD NOT BE READY FOR A JANUARY ELECTION AND NOTED 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  02970  02 OF 02  051317Z 
THAT A THIRD OF THE COUNTRY LIKELY WOULD BE INACCESSIBLE THEN, 
MAKING CAMPAIGNING -- AND VOTING -- IMPOSSIBLE IN ZANU-PF'S 
HEARTLAND.  GUMBO SAID THE PARTY'S PREFERENCE WOULD BE APRIL (N.B. 
WHICH WOULD BE UNCONSTITUTIONAL), BY WHICH TIME THE RAINS USUALLY 
HAVE SLACKENED.  WE CAN ONLY SURMISE THAT GUMBO HAS YET TO FACTOR 
THE LOOMING FOOD SHORTAGES EXPECTED NEXT SPRING INTO HIS CALENDAR. 
 
SULLIVAN 
 
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