US embassy cable - 04RANGOON1151

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001151 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AID/ANE 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EB, AND IO 
BANGKOK FOR AID 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2014 
TAGS: SENV, EAGR, ECON, PGOV, BM, Economy 
SUBJECT: GOB INDIFFERENT TO HISTORIC FLOODING 
 
REF: RANGOON 625 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Record rainfall in July and August led to 
historic flooding throughout Burma, rendering thousands 
homeless and causing severe damage to rice crops.  The 
Burmese regime denied that any flooding occurred and arrested 
individuals for distributing video footage of flooded towns. 
GOB efforts to reclaim damaged fields and replant rice will 
do little to thwart the likelihood of a decline in national 
rice production for 2004.  However, the GOB could prolong an 
ongoing rice export ban to avoid social unrest stemming from 
shortages or price increases.  End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Unusually heavy monsoon rains in July and August led 
to severe flooding in most low-lying areas of Burma.  The 
Irrawaddy river peaked on July 27 at 1.4 meters in Mandalay, 
the highest recorded level in 30 years, rendering thousands 
of people homeless and temporarily cutting off the Mandalay 
International airport.  Water levels in Bago Division were 
still well above the danger mark at the end of August, after 
reaching the second highest recorded level in history.  The 
Chindwin and Thanlwin rivers also rose above the danger 
level, flooding dozens of towns, submerging aquaculture 
farms, and pushing dams and reservoirs beyond capacity. 
According to NGOs and local officials, farmers lost homes, 
livestock, and acres of rice fields, as well as rice stored 
for domestic consumption. 
 
3. (C) Sources at the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation 
tell us privately that over 200,000 acres of rice may have 
been seriously damaged or lost.  Although casualties were 
minimal, local villagers report that as waters recede they 
face fouled wells, infectious diseases, and poisonous snakes 
forced into inhabited areas.  Neither the GOB nor the Myanmar 
Red Cross (MRC) have released official damage figures, but 
Embassy sources report that floods may have displaced over 
100,000 households. 
 
4. (C) The Burmese regime has reacted predictably to this 
latest natural disaster.  Several senior GOB officials denied 
to Embassy officers than any flooding had occurred or 
downplayed the impact by describing rising rivers as a 
seasonal phenomenon ("A little water won't hurt anyone" said 
one MFA official).   In late August we received credible 
reports that military intelligence had arrested several 
individuals for distributing videos of flooding in Kachin 
State. 
 
5. (U) SPDC Secretary 2, Lt. Gen Thein Sein, emerged 
mid-flooding to inspect affected areas, but official press 
coverage made no mention of damage or casualties.  Private 
journals refrained from covering the flooding for fear of 
political backlash, although one obscure health magazine 
cited the distribution of lunch packets to flood victims in 
Sagaing, providing some Burmese with the only domestic 
reports of the flooding.  The Myanmar Times, a 
government-affiliated weekly newspaper, devoted some coverage 
in late August to flooding, but minimized the damage by 
emphasizing casualties in neighboring India and Bangladesh. 
 
6. (C) UN agencies, who concede they were caught off guard by 
a cyclone that hit Rakhine State in May, tell us that they 
have been prepared for the past two months to provide 
emergency flood relief at a moment's notice.  However, the 
regime has declined to request foreign assistance.  The MRC 
provided evacuation assistance and privately admits that 
farmers who lost rice crops may require long-term aid. 
Additional groups that mobilized with assistance include 
Swiss Aid, the Metta Foundation (a reputable and independent 
Burmese NGO to which U.S. mission employees and FSNs have 
privately contributed funds and clothing to help flood 
victims), the Kachin Baptist Convention, World Vision, and 
the National League for Democracy.  These organizations have 
assisted with cleaning wells and procuring mosquito netting, 
sand bags, oral rehydration packets, rice, and drinking 
water. 
 
7. (C) Comment: Officially, the GOB says that efforts are 
underway to reclaim flooded farmlands and replant damaged 
rice crops.  With only two months left in the growing season, 
these efforts will do little to thwart the likelihood of a 
drastically reduced rice yield and a corresponding fall in 
national rice production for 2004.  However, due to the GOB's 
rice export ban (reftel), there are considerable stocks of 
rice in the hands of traders and millers (an estimated 
300,000 metric tons).  The GOB will certainly not admit to a 
fall in production and could prolong the export ban to avoid 
social unrest stemming from a shortage or an increase in 
price.  "Creative" exemptions to the export ban, however, 
will permit the GOB to continue to earn much-needed foreign 
exchange.  End Comment. 
Martinez