US embassy cable - 04FRANKFURT7642

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 007642 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, GM 
SUBJECT: Christian Democrats Likely to Win Absolute Majority 
in Upcoming Saarland Elections 
 
REF: a) Berlin 2736, b) 2003 Frankfurt 3946, c) Frankfurt 
 
4964 d) Frankfurt 5178 e) Frankfurt 5692 f) Frankfurt 5927 
 
Sensitive but unclassified - not for internet distribution 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (SBU) Bolstered by the popularity of Minister-President 
Peter Mueller, the Saarland CDU (Christian Democrats) likely 
will retain its majority in September 5 state elections and 
improve on the party's 1999 result, when they won 45 percent 
of the vote.  Opposition Social Democrats (SPD) could see 
their support decline to around 30 percent (from 44% in 
1999).  Fueled by a successful campaign against genetically 
modified organisms (GMOs), Saarland's Greens should return 
to Parliament after a poor 1999 showing, while the Free 
Democrats (FDP) have a smaller chance of crossing the five- 
percent threshold.  Observers warn of a possibility, albeit 
remote, that disenchantment with economic reform could 
propel the far-right National Democrats (NPD) into 
Parliament.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Opinion Polls Indicate Decisive Victory for CDU 
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2. (U) Recent polls indicate a commanding lead for Minister- 
President Peter Mueller and the CDU.  A September 26 poll by 
Saarlaendischer Rundfunk and Infratest Dimap predicts a 51% 
return for the CDU (up from 48% in a May 2004 poll), 30% for 
the SPD (down 3%), 7% for the Greens (up 2%), 5% for the FDP 
(down 2%), and 7% for other small parties (up 2%). 
Minister-President Mueller polls 62%, far outstripping SPD 
challenger Heiko Maas (27%). 
 
3.  (SBU) CDU General Secretary Stephan Toscani told a 
Consulate representative the CDU's clear lead is due to a 
focus on its candidate (Mueller) as well as an appeal to the 
electorate's growing pride in Saarland and its 
accomplishments (NOTE: Mueller's focus on flexible high-tech 
ventures utilizing Saarland's small size and low 
unemployment within the state has been a central feature of 
the CDU platform.  END NOTE).  He added that former 
Minister-President and SPD left-wing activist Oskar 
Lafontaine's criticism of the Agenda 2010 reforms has 
complicated the Saarland SPD's campaign because of the 
increasingly unpopular Lafontaine's association with the 
party (NOTE: Polls indicate that a majority of Saarland 
voters perceive Lafontaine's criticism as an attempt to 
regain the national spotlight rather than genuine opposition 
to Schroeder reforms.  END NOTE).  Toscani also noted an 
alarming growth of anti-Americanism during the campaign, 
citing as an example a CDU poster with an English-language 
slogan ("Best of Politik") that was withdrawn after 
widespread criticism of the advertisement as "too American." 
 
4.  (SBU) The election for Saarbruecken mayor (regarded as 
the second-most powerful post in the state) could be a 
potential bright spot for the SPD.  Popular SPD challenger 
Charlotte Britz is the favorite to unseat interim Green 
incumbent Kajo Breuer (who assumed the seat after the 
resignation of Social Democrat Hajo Hoffman due to 
allegations of fraud).  An SPD victory in Saarbruecken could 
preserve SPD chairman Heiko Maas's standing within the party 
despite a defeat at the state level. 
 
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Smaller Parties See Greens Surge, NPD Threaten 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5.  (SBU) Saarland's Greens are the clear favorite among 
smaller parties to enter the Saarland Landtag, currently the 
only two-party (CDU/SPD) state parliament in Germany.  Green 
party manager Marcus Tressel credits much of the increase in 
popularity to the party's vigorous campaign against 
genetically modified organisms and notes the Greens netted 
15,000 signatures for a "GMO-Free Saarland" during their 
campaign.  Tressel does not expect an SPD-Green coalition 
(his preferred option) and calls a coalition with the CDU an 
option of last resort (assuming the CDU cannot form its own 
majority). 
 
6.  (SBU) The FDP has a smaller chance of re-entering 
Parliament, plagued by low visibility and the migration of 
some of its voters to the CDU.  A strong FDP showing could 
complicate CDU efforts to keep its absolute majority, as the 
CDU would need to get 50 percent of the popular vote (versus 
around 47 percent in a legislature including only the CDU, 
SPD, and Greens). 
 
7.  (SBU) Some observers speculate that dissatisfaction with 
Hartz IV reforms could herald the entry of the far-right 
National Democrats into parliament.  NPD national chairman 
Udo Voight has mounted a symbolic bid for mayor of 
Saarbruecken accompanied by a blitz of advertisements. 
Christian Democrat youth chairman Alexander Funk pointed to 
significant numbers of anti-Hartz IV NPD protesters at 
recent CDU rallies as well as surprising returns in some 
cities in recent Saarland local elections as signs of NPD 
support.  While Green manager Tressel also expressed 
apprehension at the NPD surge in popularity, he sees its 
entry into Parliament as unlikely.  He noted that most of 
the party's core support structure remains in east Germany 
and predicts the few votes the NPD receives would be 
protests against Hartz IV and other unpopular recent 
reforms.  At the opposite end of the spectrum, the left-wing 
Party for Democratic Socialism (PDS) remains a long shot to 
enter parliament despite months of vigorous campaigning. 
 
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COMMENT 
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8. (SBU) Current controversy over Hartz IV has erased any 
bounce the Saarland SPD might have enjoyed after an 
unexpectedly strong showing in this summer's local and 
European elections.  Oskar Lafontaine's vocal criticism of 
Schroeder and Agenda 2010 reforms has also hurt the party, 
scaring away voters repelled by Lafontaine's perceived 
obsession with the spotlight.  While SPD candidate Heiko 
Maas is a savvy politician and party manager, he is unable 
to compete with Mueller's broad personal appeal.  The SPD's 
best chance for good news on September 5 remains 
Saarbruecken mayoral candidate Charlotte Britz. 
 
9.  (SBU) A vigorous campaign by Saarland's Greens 
highlighting weaknesses in the CDU's environmental and 
education policy should yield them seats in Parliament. 
Mueller's co-opting of Free Democrat core voters through an 
FDP-style economic policy makes it somewhat unlikely the FDP 
will re-enter Parliament.  Opposition to economic reform may 
yield increased support for the NPD (they polled 1% of the 
vote in 1999).  Lacking an extensive support structure 
within the state, however, Saarland pundits predict the 
party will be unlikely to cross the five-percent mark and 
enter the legislature.  END COMMENT. 
 
PASI