US embassy cable - 01HARARE2939

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002939 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/03/11 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: MFA DECLINES TO SAY "YES" OR "NO" ON ELECTION OBSERVERS 
BUT IMPLIES "NO" 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.  REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
REF: A) STATE 169690  B) HARARE 2743  C) HARARE 2690 
 
1.  (C) IN AN OCTOBER 2 MEETING WITH MFA EUROPE AND AMERICAS 
DIVISION DIRECTOR JONATHAN WUTAWUNASHE, CHARGE, ACCOMPANIED BY 
POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, REITERATED PREVIOUS EXPRESSIONS OF 
CONCERN OVER THE GOZ'S TREATMENT OF THE TEAM FROM THE 
INTERNATIONAL FOUNDATION FOR ELECTION SYSTEMS (IFES).  (N.B. THE 
MEETING WAS A FOLLOW-UP TO A/S KANSTEINER'S SEPTEMBER 27 
DISCUSSION IN WASHINGTON WITH AMBASSADOR MUBAKO -- REF A).  THE 
CHARGE STRESSED THE USG' S DISAPPOINTMENT THAT THE IFES TEAM HAD 
BEEN ASKED TO LEAVE AFTER IT HAD REQUESTED APPOINTMENTS WITH 
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERSEEING ELECTIONS.  IFES 
IS AN INTERNATIONALLY-RESPECTED ORGANIZATION THAT HAS OBSERVED 
ELECTIONS WORLD-WIDE, AND THE USG STRONGLY ENDORSES ITS PROPOSED 
ACTIVITIES IN ZIMBABWE.  THE CHARGE POINTED OUT THAT ASSESSMENTS 
OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS FROM ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS IFES WOULD BE 
CRUCIAL TO INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE 
LEGITIMACY OF THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  HE SAID HE 
UNDERSTOOD THAT IFES INTENDS TO SEND ANOTHER TEAM TO ZIMBABWE IN 
MID-OCTOBER, AND WE REQUESTED A SIMPLE "YES" OR "NO" AS TO WHETHER 
THEY WOULD BE WELCOME.  THE CHARGE STATED THAT WE WOULD INTERPRET 
A LACK OF RESPONSE AS A "NO." 
 
2.  (C) WUTAWUNASHE REPLIED THAT THE GOZ WAS "AT A GREAT 
DISADVANTAGE" LAST TIME BECAUSE IT DID NOT KNOW THE IFES TEAM WAS 
COMING.  HE SAID IT WOULD BE "PRUDENT" FOR ANYONE CONTEMPLATING A 
VISIT TO A "SOVEREIGN COUNTRY" TO FAMILIARIZE HIMSELF WITH THE 
NECESSARY PROCEDURES TO FOLLOW.  THIS WAS NOT A VISIT THAT OUR TWO 
GOVERNMENTS HAD DISCUSSED IN ADVANCE.  THE CHARGE ACKNOWLEDGED THE 
POINT BUT NOTED THAT IFES IS AN NGO, IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH THE 
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UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, AND DID NOT REQUEST THE EMBASSY'S 
ASSISTANCE PRIOR TO ITS TEAM'S VISIT IN EARLY SEPTEMBER. 
WUTAWUNASHE SAID HE WAS NOT FAMILIAR WITH WHAT THE TEAM MEMBERS 
HAD PUT ON THEIR VISA APPLICATIONS.  PERHAPS THEY WERE NOT HONEST 
ABOUT THEIR INTENDED WORK IN ZIMBABWE, AND IT MIGHT HAVE LOOKED TO 
IMMIGRATION OFFICIALS LIKE A "SURREPTITIOUS ENTRY." IMMIGRATION 
OFFICIALS ARE THE SAME THE WORLD OVER, WUTAWUNASHE ADDED. 
 
3.  (C) THE USG, THE CHARGE AFFIRMED, IS MORE INTERESTED IN 
DETERMINING NEXT STEPS THAN IN REHASHING PAST DIFFICULTIES.  HE 
REMINDED WUTAWUNASHE THAT SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT MNANGAGWA HAD 
ASSURED US THAT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS WOULD BE WELCOMED BECAUSE 
THAT WAS A TRADITION IN ZIMBABWE. THE USG IS NOW REQUESTING A 
SIMPLE "YES" OR "NO" ON WHETHER THEY WOULD BE ALLOWED TO WORK 
UNHINDERED.  IN RESPONSE, WUTAWUNASHE STATED THAT HE WANTED THE 
CHARGE TO UNDERSTAND THE PSYCHOLOGY PREVAILING IN OFFICIAL CIRCLES 
IN HARARE.  THERE IS A STRONG PERCEPTION AMONG MANY IN THE 
ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WANTS TO 
REMOVE PRESIDENT MUGABE.  THAT PERCEPTION, HE CONTINUED, HAD BEEN 
STRENGTHENED BY RECENT CONFERENCES HELD IN WASHINGTON AND LONDON, 
AT LEAST ONE ATTENDED BY FORMER A/S CHESTER CROCKER, WHERE 
SCENARIOS WERE DISCUSSED ABOUT HOW MUGABE MIGHT BE CONVINCED OR 
FORCED TO STEP DOWN.  WHY ARE AFRICAN COUNTRIES NOT BEATING DOWN 
THE DOOR TO OBSERVE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, HE ASKED, WHILE 
OTHER NATIONS ARE ANXIOUS TO SEND PEOPLE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE?  "WE 
DON'T EVEN HAVE A DATE SET FOR THE ELECTION YET," WUTAWUNASHE 
SAID. 
 
4. (C) THE EUROPE AND AMERICAS DIVISION DIRECTOR SAID HE HESITATED 
TO PROVIDE A DEFINITIVE "YES" OR "NO" WITHOUT KNOWING MORE ABOUT 
IFES.  NGOS, HE DECLARED, ARE A DIME A DOZEN AND ARE NOT 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  02939  01 OF 02  031447Z 
CONSTRAINED BY DIPLOMATIC CONVENTIONS OR THE NEED TO MAINTAIN 
BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS.  FOR THAT REASON, HE PERSONALLY PREFERRED 
OFFICIAL OBSERVERS SENT BY GOVERNMENTS.  THE CHARGE REITERATED 
THAT IFES HAS AN OUTSTANDING INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION FOR 
CREDIBILITY, NON-PARTISANSHIP, AND ELECTION-RELATED EXPERTISE.  HE 
CLARIFIED THAT IFES INITIALLY INTENDS TO CONDUCT AN ASSESSMENT OF 
THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT AND WILL THEN DETERMINE WHETHER IT WANTS 
TO BECOME INVOLVED IN AN OBSERVATION EFFORT. 
 
5.  (C) WUTAWUNASHE AFFIRMED THAT THE GOZ WAS OPERATING "UNDER THE 
SPIRIT OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT," ACCORDING TO WHICH THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WOULD RESPOND TO GOZ REQUESTS FOR 
ASSISTANCE WITH ITS ELECTORAL PROCESS.  THE GOZ TOOK THE ABUJA 
AGREEMENT SERIOUSLY, WUTAWUNASHE INSISTED, AND WOULD ISSUE 
INVITATIONS "AT THE RIGHT TIME."  IN THE MEANTIME, HE SUGGESTED 
THAT GROUPS INTERESTED IN OBSERVING MAKE THE GOZ AWARE OF THAT 
INTEREST.  SHOULD IFES APPROACH THE ZIMBABWEAN EMBASSY IN 
WASHINGTON TO VERIFY ITS BONA FIDES, THE CHARGE ASKED?  YES, 
WUTAWUNASHE RESPONDED, THEY SHOULD PROBABLY INTRODUCE THEMSELVES 
TO THE EMBASSY AND EXPRESS THEIR INTEREST IN OBSERVING THE 
ELECTION "WHEN THAT TIME COMES." 
 
COMMENT 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  EUR-00   VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00     AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01 
      PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00 
      SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  PMB-00   DRL-02   G-00 
      SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------2926AA  031447Z /45 
O 031324Z OCT 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9874 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002939 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/03/11 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: MFA DECLINES TO SAY "YES" OR "NO" ON ELECTION OBSERVERS 
BUT IMPLIES "NO" 
 
------- 
 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  02939  02 OF 02  031447Z 
6.  (C) WUTAWUNASHE'S REMARKS SUGGEST THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF 
ZIMBABWE IS VERY UNLIKELY TO PROVIDE, ANY TIME SOON, A CLEAR-CUT 
"YES" OR "NO" ON THE ISSUE OF INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS. 
HE IS RIGHT ABOUT THE PARANOIA REIGNING IN ZANU-PF'S INNER CIRCLE, 
WHERE MANY SENIOR OFFICIALS ARE GENUINELY CONVINCED THAT SOME 
WESTERN GOVERNMENTS (INCLUDING THE U.S.) ARE USING NGOS AS A FRONT 
TO WORK FULL-OUT FOR THE DEFEAT OF MUGABE AND THE RULING PARTY. 
AS A RESULT, THE GOZ HAS CLEARLY GONE INTO STALL MODE, AND WILL 
USE THE ABUJA AGREEMENT TO CLOAK ITS RELUCTANCE TO ADMIT 
INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS.  WE SHOULD ASSUME THAT IF INVITATIONS ARE 
ISSUED TO IFES AND SIMILAR GROUPS, IT WILL BE DONE ONLY AT THE 
VERY LAST MINUTE, IN THE FIVE- TO EIGHT-WEEK PERIOD IN WHICH BY 
REGULATION THE GOZ MUST ANNOUNCE ELECTIONS, AND TOO LATE FOR 
OBSERVERS TO ASSESS FIRST-HAND THE DAMAGE DONE BY ZANU-PF'S PRE- 
ELECTION ANTICS.  WUTAWUNASHE FAITHFULLY CONVEYED THE GOZ AND 
RULING PARTY THINKING THAT THE WEST AND NGOS ARE NOT OBJECTIVE 
OBSERVERS OF ZIMBABWE'S POLITICAL SCENE, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR 
THAT HE PERSONALLY SHARES THIS VIEW. 
 
WHITEHEAD 
 
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