US embassy cable - 04MAPUTO1183

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001183 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
STATE AF FOR A/S NEWMAN AND AF/S BNEULING 
PASS NSC FOR CCOURVILLE 
PASS MCC FOR SGAULL 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM, PREL, PGOV, ETRD, MZ, Elections 04, RENAMO, Scenesetters 
SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR VISIT OF AFONSO DHLAKAMA TO 
WASHINGTON 
 
REF: A. MAPUTO 1154 
B. MAPUTO 1001 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Opposition party RENAMO's presidential 
candidate Afonso Dhlakama will visit Washington following his 
attendance at the Republican National Convention. RENAMO 
party officials consider Dhlakama's visit to Washington key 
for both the party's and the candidate's credibility. As in 
past meetings with Embassy officials, Dhlakama will likely be 
interested in a range of economic and political topics. Key 
bilateral issues that deserve particular attention include 
the December general elections, trade and investment, 
HIV/AIDS, and GRM participation in regional issues. The visit 
will provide an opportunity to gain a better understanding of 
Dhlakama's specific policy objectives and campaign 
strategies, something that has proved difficult in the past. 
End summary. 
 
--------- 
THE VISIT 
--------- 
2. (U) Dhlakama's trip is being organized and funded by the 
Konrad Adenauer Foundation. His visit follows trips to 
Washington by ruling party FRELIMO presidential candidate 
Armando Guebuza and expected third-party PDD presidential 
candidate Raul Domingos (Ref B). In addition to meetings with 
AF A/S Newman, NSC Senior Director Courville, and MCC CEO 
Applegarth, Dhlakama will also speak at a symposium hosted by 
IRI, discuss Mozambique's investment climate with US 
businesses, and meet with World Bank and International 
Monetary Fund officials. 
 
---------------------- 
THE CONTEXT OF THE VISIT 
------------------------- 
3. (SBU) On December 1 and 2, Mozambique will hold its third 
multi-party presidential elections since independence in 
1975. The current president, Joaquim Chissano, will step down 
after having served since 1986, winning elections in 1994 and 
1999. Chissano and the leadership of FRELIMO dominate 
policy-making and implementation. US-Mozambican bilateral 
relations have been excellent under Chissano. Mozambique is 
the only country in the world to be both a focus country 
under the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) 
and an eligible country for the Millennium Challenge Account 
(MCA). 
 
4. (SBU) During November 2003 municipal elections, FRELIMO 
won all but 4 of the country's 33 mayorships in what were 
considered generally free and fair elections. Though formal 
campaigning for the December elections does not officially 
begin until October 17, high-level FRELIMO party officials 
have already hit the campaign trail, focusing particularly on 
northern and central provinces which are likely to be closely 
contested. RENAMO officials have been less visible in 
campaigning, though Dhlakama has been outspoken regarding 
what he considered a highly flawed voter registration 
process. Dhlakama has stated that the voter registration 
process, which recently ended, deliberately under-registered 
or bypassed voters in traditionally RENAMO supported areas. 
RENAMO has asked, without success, that the voter 
registration process be repeated. 
 
5. (SBU) Another concern for RENAMO has been the National 
Electoral Commission's (CNE) decision to allow Mozambicans 
living abroad, many of whom are considered to be FRELIMO 
supporters, to register to vote. However, no decision has 
been taken as to whether Mozambicans living abroad who have 
registered will in fact be eligible to vote. Recent conflicts 
between armed RENAMO supporters and the police in the central 
province of Sofala (Ref A) have highlighted political 
tensions in the pre-election period. Dhlakama has met with 
European officials regarding the upcoming presidential 
elections and has encouraged the participation of 
international observers. He visited China in late August. 
 
---------------------- 
BIOGRAPHIC INFORMATION 
---------------------- 
6. (SBU) Dhlakama came to prominence in 1976, at the start of 
the brutal 16-year guerrilla war against FRELIMO. He has been 
President of RENAMO since 1980. Since the signing of the Rome 
Peace Agreement in 1992, Dhlakama has played a crucial role 
in transforming RENAMO into a viable political party and 
keeping the disparate factions of his party from lapsing back 
into violence. Despite his party disputing the outcome of the 
1999 presidential elections, Dhlakama grudgingly accepted the 
results, and RENAMO did not revert to violence to press its 
case that the FRELIMO victory was fraudulent. He has since 
reaffirmed his party's acceptance of reconciliation on 
numerous occasions, such as annual ceremonies involving 
President Chissano and other FRELIMO officials. In past 
meetings with Embassy officials, Dhlakama has expressed 
satisfaction with US engagement in Mozambique. Regarding 
priorities for the country, he has stressed the need for 
greater progress on judicial reform and corruption, as well 
the importance of developing national economic production, 
particularly in small and medium sized businesses, as a means 
of reducing the country's reliance on South African imports. 
If RENAMO wins the elections, a key challenge will be to find 
technically competent party members to fill key government 
positions; Dhlakama claims that many competent figures 
support RENAMO, but will not reveal their loyalties before 
the election. 
 
---------- 
KEY ISSUES 
---------- 
7. (SBU) A) Elections: The USG is supporting the electoral 
process through financial assistance to the Carter Center and 
domestic observer groups. As we did during the municipal 
elections, post will send observers to key municipalities 
throughout the country. Given recent tensions in Sofala 
province (Ref A) and complaints by RENAMO over the voter 
registration process, it will be important for USG officials 
to gain assurances from Dhlakama of his commitment to a fair 
and non-violent electoral process. 
B) Trade & Investment: Mozambique has yet to take full 
advantage of AGOA, and US trade and investment in Mozambique 
remains small. Currently, only one apparel company in 
Mozambique is exporting under AGOA, with a second company 
expected to begin operations shortly. Mozambique has an 
opportunity to address a number of the constraints to 
increased trade and investment. It would be interesting to 
hear Dhlakama's vision for promoting increased trade and 
investment as a mechanism for reducing poverty. 
C) HIV/AIDS: Dhlakama has not been particularly vocal on 
HIV/AIDS or donor support to combat the epidemic. USG 
officials may wish to encourage his active engagement on the 
issue. Should Dhlakama raise allegations that the USG is 
pursuing a "unilateralist" approach to combating HIV/AIDS, 
USG interlocutors can stress that the USG views Mozambique as 
a full partner in PEPFAR and is making every effort to ensure 
that our programs complement and support Mozambique's. 
D) Regional Issues: During his recently-ended Presidency of 
the African Union (AU), President Chissano was actively 
engaged on broader African issues and sought to use his AU 
Presidency both to build stronger African institutions and to 
find African-led solutions to Africa's problems. Mozambique's 
participation in the AU's peace-keeping operations in Burundi 
is one such example. ACOTA has visited Mozambique twice in 
the past few months and is planning a Strategy and Planning 
Conference for mid-September. We look forward to supporting 
the GRM increase its capacity to contribute to peace-keeping 
operations and would expect to continue our engagement 
regardless of the December election outcome. Dhlakama has in 
the past criticized the reluctance of some key African 
leaders, such as Mbeki, to take clear positions on regional 
issues such as the situation in Zimbabwe. We encourage USG 
officials to reaffirm the importance of Mozambique's 
continued attention to and participation in regional affairs. 
LA LIME