US embassy cable - 04LJUBLJANA823

UNCLAS  LJUBLJANA 000823 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, SI 
SUBJECT:  TV SLOVENIJA AIRS FIRST UNOFFICIAL DEBATE BETWEEN 
PM ROP AND OPPOSITION LEADER JANSA 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified -- Please Protect Accordingly 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY:  On 30 August, TV Slovenija broadcast a long- 
planned confrontation between PM Anton Rop and opposition 
leader and Slovene Democratic Party [SDS] President Janez 
Jansa.  The two leaders introduced different "diagnoses" of 
Slovenia's success in the last four years.  Jansa was very 
critical of Slovenia's slow development in the fields of 
economy and social security.  He said the government did not 
fulfill several promises, especially on privatization and 
health care reform.  Jansa did, however, mention some 
successful initiatives, highlighting foreign and defense 
policy and e-government initiatives in the areas of taxation 
and the judicial system.  As expected, Rop refuted all 
criticism and claimed the government had fulfilled its major 
goals.  He highlighted economic growth that was 1.5 to 2 
percent higher than the EU average.  One characteristic 
shared by both politicians during the broadcast was an 
unwillingness to answer concrete questions raised by the 
moderator.  END SUMMARY. 
 
JANSA 
----- 
 
2.  (U) Jansa began his assessment of the past four years by 
focusing on positive accomplishments of the current 
government, mentioning foreign policy successes and the 
termination of conscription into the Slovenian Armed Forces 
(SAF).  He said these were issues where the government 
"listened to our [Opposition Coalition] proposals".  He also 
mentioned computerized income tax collection and introduction 
of a computerized land register as steps forward. 
 
3.  (U) As criticism, Jansa mentioned Slovenia's slow 
economic development and delays in privatization that will 
prevent the country from catching up with the most developed 
countries of the EU within the next ten years.  Jansa said 
the country's unfulfilled goals could be achieved more 
quickly if political changes occur.  In the field of foreign 
policy, Jansa only criticized Slovenia's policy towards 
Croatia, calling for a more active engagement.  In this 
regard he echoed a proposal by the right-leaning political 
forum Assembly for the Republic (AFTR) on creating a joint 
Slovene - Croatian commission to deal with border issues.  On 
a more global scale, Jansa suggested that tensions between 
the U.S. and Europe are abating, obviating the need for 
Slovenia to take sides between the so-called "New Europe" and 
"Old Europe."  He said that Slovenia should follow the lead 
within the EU of countries like Portugal or Luxembourg, both 
of which he says are influential, despite their small size. 
 
ROP 
--- 
 
4.  (U) Rop refuted all criticisms levied against his 
Government and said that he is very optimistic about 
Slovenia's future development.  Regarding the past four 
years, he said Slovenian citizens can be proud of results 
that represent accomplishments of more than just one 
government or a single political party.  Concerning economic 
growth, he noted that Slovenia had reached its goal of 
exceeding the EU average by 1.5 to 2 percent.  Rop argued 
that the GoS policy toward Croatia is, indeed, active and he 
mentioned Slovenia's reliance on its new membership in the EU 
to block Croatia's proclamation of an ecological - fishing 
zone that would inure to Slovenia's detriment.  He also 
mentioned positive movement in handling high profile issues 
surrounding Ljubljanska Banka and Yugoslav succession. 
 
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS 
-------------------- 
 
5.  (U) Both Rop and Jansa dodged certain questions posed by 
the moderator.  Rop refused to highlight a single mistake of 
the Government under his leadership.  He just said, 
generally, that certain matters could have been carried out 
faster and differently.  Jansa on the other hand did not 
answer a question directly about whether a coalition between 
SDS or the opposition Coalition Slovenija (which includes the 
center-right Nova Slovenija (NSi)) and Rop's LDS would be 
possible.  Jansa said that it is good for any country or 
party not to hold power continuously.  Rop responded that LDS 
would not exclude any particular party in advance of election 
results. 
 
ELECTION PREDICTIONS 
 
 
-------------------- 
 
6. (U) When asked to predict the results of the October 3 
national parliamentary election, Jansa said that SDS will be 
the strongest party and that - together with NSi - it will 
replicate the results of the European Parliament election. 
SDS and NSi won four seats in the European Parliament, while 
LDS and its left-wing coalition partner United List of Social 
Democrats (ZLSD) won only three.  Jansa said he would resign 
as SDS President if his party does not improve its results 
from the 2000 elections.  Rop said simply that he expects an 
LDS victory and that any other result would be a fiasco. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
7.  (U) This televised debate was seen by many Slovenes as 
the start of an election campaign season that commences 
officially on 3 September.  Jansa's criticisms came directly 
from the agenda developed by his "shadow cabinet" for 
Slovenia's future.  The parliamentary interpellation motion 
launched by the Opposition Coalition against Rop's government 
started August 31.  The interpellation motion is widely seen 
as a pre-election tool that Jansa hopes to use to his 
political advantage. 
 
8.  (SBU) Slovene voters are traditionally seen as tending to 
vote "against" what they oppose, rather than "in favor" of 
what they like.  In the past, Jansa has performed well in 
election years but has lost support in the immediate lead-up 
to election day because of his inability to consolidate the 
parties on the right.  Jansa's chances to become PM will 
increase if he can effect such a consolidation to counter an 
LDS that is likely to remain the strongest party in Slovenia. 
On the other hand, the big challenge for the LDS will be to 
increase voter turnout.  Even that might not be enough for 
Rop this time, though, if the parties on the right can unify 
before the election.  END COMMENT. 
 
YOUNG 
 
 
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