US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN1938

UNCLAS YEREVAN 001938 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, AM 
SUBJECT:  LOCAL RESULTS NULLIFIED IN ELECTORAL DEJA VU 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified -- Please treat accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (SBU) Territorial Election Commission (TEC) 
officials declared the results from an August 29 
parliamentary by-election invalid August 31 following 
widespread reports of violations and an unreliably thin 
margin of only 32 votes between the two candidates. 
Analysts viewed the election as an important mid-term 
gauge of local political power for two rival, pro- 
government camps (National Assembly Speaker Arthur 
Baghdasaryan and Procurator General Aghvan Hovsepyan 
each strongly endorsed a candidate in the race). 
Election observers cited numerous cases of ballot 
stuffing and irregularities in the final vote counts. 
End Summary. 
 
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REPORTS OF BALLOT STUFFING, BRIBERY IN PRECINT 44 
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2. (U) TEC officials in a precinct just north of 
Yerevan announced August 31 that they had invalidated 
the results of a parliamentary by-election held the 
previous weekend.  With an unusually high voter turnout 
of 67 percent (approximately 28,000 voters), local 
businessmen Artak Sargsyan led challenger Araik 
Hairapetyan by only 32 votes.  The TEC said that the 
election would have to be re-run because the commission 
registered too many discrepancies, including 21 
complaints from the two candidates' representatives.  A 
small team of Yerevan-based international observers 
(including representatives from "It's Your Choice") 
reported witnessing violations including an incident in 
which 200 ballots marked for Sargsyan were prevented 
from being stuffed into the ballot box at one of the 
polling stations.  Media coverage included eyewitness 
accounts of payment for votes and local law enforcement 
and procurators unduly meddling into the final count 
process in favor of Hairapetyan.  According to press 
reports, Baghdasaryan and Hovsepyan will separately 
meet with Kocharian to discuss the by-election outcome. 
The TEC has not yet set a date for the re-run. 
 
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ZERO-SUM POWER GAME 
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3. (SBU) Both candidates are pro-establishment wealthy 
businessmen representing powerful pro-Kocharian forces. 
Artak Sargsyan represents Baghdasaryan's Orinats Yerkir 
(OY) party, while Araik Hairapetyan is backed by 
procurator general Hovsepyan.  Most analysts viewed the 
race as a gauge of Baghdasaryan's and Hovsepyan's 
relative political clout.  The two other ruling 
coalition parties, the Republican Party and ARF 
Dashnaktsutyun, refrained from endorsing or campaigning 
for the OY candidate, indicating what some observers 
predict may be a cooling-off within the coalition. 
 
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COMMENT 
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4. (SBU) Rumors of Baghdasaryan and Hovsepyan's 
ambitions for the next presidential election framed 
this local race as the first tangible political trial 
balloon for potential Kocharian successors.  What the 
failed vote appears to more clearly indicate, however, 
is that serious electoral problems remain in Armenia. 
The only silver lining that we might find here is that 
this is the first election result in recent memory to 
be so quickly annulled for improper democratic 
procedure. 
EVANS