US embassy cable - 04THEHAGUE2190

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002190 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2014 
TAGS: PREL, TU, NL, EUN 
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/EU:  DUTCH THINKTANK REPORT ON TURKISH 
ACCESSION 
 
REF: A. TRAUB/EUR/USEU EMAILS OF 8/30 
 
     B. BRUSSELS 3624 
 
Classified By: Daniel Russel, CDA, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  A recent report on Turkish EU accession by 
the Dutch Advisory Council on International Affairs (AIV), a 
think tank affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 
has sparked debate on a possible timetable for opening 
accession talks with Turkey.  The report's most controversial 
recommendation -- that the EU wait up to 24 months before 
beginning such talks -- has already been challenged by key 
Dutch public officials as inconsistent with earlier EU 
commitments.  While the AIV is a respected organization whose 
views are taken seriously by the GONL, the report should not 
be seen as setting or reflecting official Dutch policy. 
Ultimately, the European Commission's October 6 report will 
be the most important factor in determining how the Dutch 
will handle this issue.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C)  On August 25, the Dutch Advisory Council on 
International Affairs (AIV) released a controversial report 
on Turkish Accession.  Because the AIV is an official think 
tank which frequently offers answers to questions put to it 
by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Development 
Cooperation and the State Secretary for European Affairs, the 
report generated a fair amount of publicity and speculation 
that its conclusions reflected likely GONL positions.  The 
report's headline grabbing recommendation was that the EU 
should consider waiting up to 24 months to set a date for 
accession talks with Turkey to begin.  However, contrary to 
some press reports, the AIV report does not advocate waiting 
a full 24 months before beginning talks; it actually says 
talks should "begin within 24 months, or earlier if 
possible."  The report does argue that Turkey must "meet 
several specific action points based on the Copenhagen 
criteria," such as withdrawing reservations to the UN 
International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.  Other 
conditions cited in the report are more subjective, however, 
such as proving that legislation has been implemented 
effectively. 
 
3.  (SBU) The AIV report notes that while Turkey has made 
progress in significant economic, political, and social 
areas, many reforms remain to be implemented, particularly at 
middle and local levels of Turkish government and society. 
The report repeats assurances from Dutch political leaders 
that Turkey should not be treated differently from how the 
ten new EU states were judged.  On the other hand, the AIV 
argues (contradictorily) that the EU should learn from the 
mistakes of its recent enlargement and move cautiously, 
abiding by its own rules and standards.  Finally, the report 
states Turkey's size and position present unique risks and 
problems, including in the economic sphere, and argues that a 
delay in opening talks would give Turkey's economy and 
economic governance structures needed time to align with 
those of the EU. 
 
4.  (SBU) In responding publicly to the report, State 
Secretary for European Affairs Nicolai disavowed the report, 
 
SIPDIS 
repeating that the Copenhagen criteria remain the only real 
benchmarks for determining when to open negotiations. 
Although he acknowledged that "loose ends" in December might 
justify a delay in opening accession talks, he stressed that 
the EU should not "play political games" to avoid taking a 
decision.  Frans Timmermans, European Affairs spokesman for 
the opposition PvdA/Labor party, took direct issue with the 
AIV report's suggestion that the EU draw out a decision, 
arguing that the EU should open negotiations immediately if 
Turkey meets the Copenhagen criteria.  Jan van Dijk, the 
European Affairs spokesman for Balkenende's Christian 
Democrat party (CDA), told the press that the GONL should 
wait for the European Commission's October report before 
taking a position, and suggested that a date for starting 
negotiations should be set three to four months after the 
Council assesses that Turkey has met the Copenhagen criteria. 
 
 
5.  (C) Manon Louwerens, secretary of the AIV who compiled 
the report, told Poloff on August 30 that the report has 
generated responses from all over the map, but no consensus 
has emerged.  The Turkish DCM here told the DCM on August 31 
that they dismiss the report as coming "just from an NGO" and 
have received assurances from senior Dutch officials that it 
did not reflect the GONL's position.  Separately, Jaap 
Werner, head of the MFA's political directorate, told Poloffs 
on August 26 that he hoped the Turks would not overreact to 
the report, as it did not reflect the official Dutch 
position.  He stressed that while the AIV report would 
certainly be read and considered within the ministry (as 
would input from other sources), the European Commission's 
October report would be the most important factor in setting 
Dutch policy on this issue. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
6.  (C)  The AIV report, while serious and taken seriously by 
the Dutch government, should not be perceived as setting or 
reflecting official Dutch policy.  As EU president, the Dutch 
have taken a firm position that the Copenhagen criteria 
provide the only standard for judging Turkey's readiness to 
begin accession talks.  However, our reading suggests that 
the report reflects oft repeated concerns from the grass 
roots, where there is less concern about "a deal is a deal" 
when the issue is Turkey.  The GONL will look to the European 
Commission's October 6 report to set the terms of the debate 
within the EU with regard to the European Council's decision 
in December. 
RUSSEL