US embassy cable - 04ABUJA1504

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001504 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MARR, ECON, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT:  NIGERIA:  PRESIDENT OBASANJO'S DELTA STRATEGY? 
 
REF: (A) Abuja 1486, (B) Abuja 1472 
 
Classified by:  Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.5 
(B) and (D) 
 
1. (S) Summary:  Judith B. Asuni, the head of the NGO 
Academic Associates PeaceWorks and close to Obasanjo and 
Stephen L. Davis, a consultant working for Shell, 
debriefed me on what they say is Obasanjo's current 
thinking on the Delta and foreshadowed a request for 
assistance from the U.S., UK and the Dutch for countering 
criminal behavior in the Delta.  End summary. 
 
2. (S) Asuni and Davis said that they spent several hours 
with President Obasanjo the evening of August 31 on the 
Delta.  Also present were representatives of the Delta 
youth gangs.  Davis said that over the past few days there 
has been significant bloodshed in Port Harcourt (where he 
is based) that has not been reported in the Nigerian 
media.  He said that the president complained that news of 
Delta developments did not reach him. According to Asuni 
and Davis, Obasanjo betrayed little knowledge of the 
corruption of the Nigerian navy, which plays an important 
role in facilitating oil bunkering, or of corruption 
within the Rivers state government.  They said that 
Nigerian businessman Otile (frequently identified as a 
bunkering kingpin) is widely regarded as untouchable 
because he is so close to Obasanjo--and that the people 
around Obasanjo ensure that he does not hear of the 
wrongdoing committed by any of his close associates. 
Nevertheless, Obasanjo appeared to have reached the 
following conclusion:  that bunkering fueled the influx of 
arms into the Delta which were basic to the power of 
various youth gangs, militias, and criminal elements. 
But, Obasanjo believes that Nigeria does not have the 
ability to "manage," let alone "police," the off-shore 
Nigeria Exclusive Economic Zone.  And that "management" or 
"policing" was essential to bring bunkering under control. 
To do that, Obasanjo believes he will need outside help. 
These ideas would be developed in the Delta study, to 
which Obasanjo referred in his meeting with Sen. Hagel 
(REFTEL B). 
 
3. (S) The Delta study, according to Asuni and Davis, is 
being coordinated by the General Managing Director of the 
Nigerian National Petroleum corporation, who is drawing on 
the State Security Service and other internal intelligence 
sources.  They thought that the Delta study would mostly 
focus on domestic factors, but growing out of it would be 
a request for foreign assistance.  Specifically, Asuni and 
Davis said that Obasanjo is likely to ask the U.S., UK and 
the Dutch governments for assistance in interdicting the 
flow of arms into the Delta, the suppression of bunkering, 
and money laundering.  Obasanjo appeared to recognize that 
such assistance was likely to involve a foreign military 
component--Asuni and Davis talked about aerial and 
satellite surveillance of shipping in the Gulf of Guinea. 
Asuni and Davis said that the Delta youth representatives 
(not further defined) also present at the August 31 
meeting, supported the concept of international help, 
though earlier they had reacted angrily to reports of U.S. 
military exercises in the Gulf of Guinea. 
 
4. (S) Comment:  I cannot rule out that my visit by Asuni 
and Davis was instigated by the Villa to foreshadow a 
future conversation on U.S. assistance.  Obasanjo often 
prefers to work through non-governmental intermediaries, 
and Asuni has been a close associate of his for years. 
She has frequently facilitated U.S. mission appointment 
requests with Obasanjo, and she has been a USAID 
contractor in the past.  Shell oil is the largest 
petroleum company operating in Nigeria, and its operations 
are highly exposed to violence as they are mostly land- 
based.  Shell, along with the other major oil companies, 
would like a robust international effort to address Delta 
violence, and I suspect there might be a self-serving 
dimension to its involvement with this initiative.  The 
areas where Asuni and Davis say Obasanjo is likely to ask 
for international assistance are also credible.  They 
portray Obasanjo as just waking up to the serious 
implications of Delta violence to his presidency, to the 
long-term viability of Nigeria.  They also emphasize the 
political difficulties Obasanjo would have in confronting 
the corruption and complicity with oil bunkering that runs 
right through the political and military establishments in 
Nigeria. 
 
5. (S) comment Continued:  In my view, they underestimate 
how much Obasanjo would be asking us for, and the 
political difficulties Obasanjo would create for himself 
by an obvious U.S. military presence in the Gulf of 
Guinea.  Their contention that Obasanjo is only just now 
waking up to the magnitude of the Delta crisis lacks 
credibility.   The next step will be to see the study 
Obasanjo has commissioned.  End Comment. 
CAMPBELL