US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2759

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002759 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION DIGS IN FOR THE LONG FIGHT 
 
REF: CARACAS 2705 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Acting Deputy Chief of Mission, 
for Reasons 1.4 (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) The Coordinadora Democratica plans to contest the 
National Electoral Council's (CNE) certified results 
announced August 26 that President Hugo Chavez won the August 
15 recall referendum.  The Coordinadora is working toward 
documenting its case.  A Coordinadora commission headed by 
constitutional lawyer Tulio Alvarez_ has enlisted a team of 
mathematicians to document the alleged irregularities in the 
referendum results.  The NGO Sumate is proceeding with its 
own analysis but is troubled by harassment from both GOV and 
opposition sympathizers.  The Coordinadora's work may turn 
out to be only an exercise in closure for the opposition.  In 
the meantime, however, Chavez opponents continue to pursue 
the fraud allegations.  End summary. 
 
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Fraud Commission Head Accuses GOV of "Plan B" 
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2. (C) The Coordinadora Democratica's Fraud Commission (ref) 
legal coordinator Tulio Alvarez_ told Emboffs August 24 he 
believes the GOV decided in July to enact a "Plan B" to 
commit fraud to win the August 15 recall referendum against 
President Hugo Chavez.  Alvarez_ said the GOV in the runup to 
the referendum had worried about a close race and initiated 
its plan to ensure victory.  Alvarez_ theorized that the GOV 
either altered the voting machines or altered their 
transmission to the National Electoral Council (CNE).  He 
thought the GOV changed the contents of the boxes containing 
the paper receipts -- perhaps 20 percent before and 20 
percent after the vote -- to match the tally sheets of the 
corresponding machines.  Alvarez_ also questioned the GOV's 
ability to augment the electoral registry by two million 
votes the two months prior to the referendum, suggesting the 
voters may never have existed. 
 
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Coordinadora's Strategy To Contest Results 
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3. (C) Alvarez_ said this is a case of "blackmail of the 
evidence," wherein all the proofs needed to demonstrate fraud 
are in the hands of the GOV, leaving the Coordinadora with 
mostly circumstantial evidence.  Alvarez_ said he plans to 
release a preliminary report in mid-September with the 
purpose of raising public awareness of irregularities in the 
election. Alvarez_ said he planned to release a definitive 
report by mid-October.  The Coordinadora has 20 working days 
after the August 26 CNE  announcement of the final referendum 
results to contest them.  Alvarez_ said the Coordinadora plans 
to file its objection five days before the expiration date to 
buy additional time for Coordinadora investigators.  He 
admitted there was little chance the CNE would act on the 
Coordinadora's objection, but noted the action would preserve 
the opposition's right to appeal to the Supreme Court (TSJ). 
 
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Sumate Embarks on Parallel Track 
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4. (C) In meeting with Emboffs August 24, members of the NGO 
Sumate Maria Corina Machado and Roberto Abdul said they, too, 
had a team of computer experts and mathematicians analyzing 
the election data.  Machado doubted the exercise would yield 
any definitive proof of fraud.  She said Sumate is reaching 
out to world-recognized experts in electoral fraud, 
especially in the United States, to examine the case of the 
referendum. 
 
5. (C) Machado and Abdul said they and other Sumate members 
had received threats by telephone and e-mail from GOV 
 
sympathizers over the NGO's refusal to endorse the referendum 
results.  Machado added that opposition groups were also 
critical of the NGO because it appeared to endorse the CNE's 
results on August 16 when it was revealed that Sumate's quick 
count showed Chavez had won.  Machado complained that this 
fact had been used by the GOV, former President Jimmy Carter, 
and the international press to imply Sumate's endorsement. 
Machado said that after receiving an apology from Carter for 
misrepresenting Sumate's position, he nevertheless continued 
to cite the NGO's quick count as evidence of transparency in 
the process. 
 
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Comment 
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6. (C) Alvarez_ is a serious and politically savvy attorney 
with a reputation for high-profile cases, such as a 
corruption suit against Chavez for suspicious oil sales to 
Cuba.  His willingness to take this case is an advantage for 
the Coordinadora.  An appeal of the CNE's referendum results 
will ultimately be fruitless because both the CNE and TSJ are 
controlled by the executive branch.  The real issue is 
whether the Coordinadora's report turns up enough evidence to 
cast doubt on Chavez's landslide win and, thus, his 
legitimacy.  If it does not, the report may still serve as a 
face-saving measure to soften the political blow of losing 
the referendum. 
 
McFarland 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02759 - CONFIDENTIAL