US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2758

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002758 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: REGIONAL AND MAYORAL ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Abelardo A. Arias for Reason 1.4 (d) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (U) Venezuela's gubernatorial and mayoral elections are 
scheduled for September 26, but National Electoral Council 
(CNE) director Jorge Rodriguez told reporters on August 23 
that the CNE is discussing changing the date of the regional 
elections for logistical reasons.  President Hugo Chavez's 
Comando Maisanta representative and National Assembly deputy 
William Lara (MVR, Miranda) said a short delay for technical 
reasons was acceptable but insisted regional elections should 
take place as soon as possible. Many within the opposition 
are debating whether to participate in the regional and 
mayoral elections, and some are hinging their participation 
on changes to the electoral process.  End Summary. 
 
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Election Day Delay 
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2. (U) Gubernatorial and mayoral elections are scheduled for 
September 26, but National Electoral Council (CNE) director 
Jorge Rodriguez told reporters on August 23 that the CNE is 
considering changing the date of the regional elections for 
logistical reasons.  This would be the second postponement 
for the regional elections initially scheduled to occur on 
August 1 but delayed due to the August 15 presidential recall 
referendum.  Rodriguez also told reporters on August 23 that 
the recall referendum for nine opposition legislative 
deputies might be scheduled on the same day as the regional 
and mayoral elections.  Movimiento Quinta Republica (MVR) 
gubernatorial candidate Diosdado Cabello (Miranda State) 
opposed holding regional and recall elections together 
saying, "The priority is the regional election." 
 
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Challenges for Comando Maisanta 
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3. (U) President Hugo Chavez's Comando Maisanta 
representative and National Assembly deputy William Lara 
(MVR, Miranda) said a short delay for technical reasons was 
acceptable, but suggested that if the date were pushed back 
too far Comando Maisanta would appeal to the Supreme Court. 
Falcon State governor Jesus Montilla said CNE members do not 
have the constitutional right to extend the terms of 
governors and mayors, which in essence they would be doing by 
changing the date of the elections.  The mayor of Caracas' 
Libertador municipality, Freddy Bernal, urged the CNE to 
preserve the September 26 date for regional elections.  If a 
change of date were necessary for technical reasons, Bernal 
said, then the delay should be minimized because the 
Venezuelan people have been in "campaign mode" for too long. 
(Note: Comando Maisanta formally launched its regional and 
mayoral election campaign on August 20.)  While opposed to 
delaying regional elections, Chavista leaders urged the CNE 
to increase the number of voting tables available at each 
voting center before the regional elections to reduce the 
amount of time voters spend in line. 
 
4. (U) With multiple Chavista candidates in 12 of the 23 
states, deciding how to choose one unified candidate is a 
dilemma for Comando Maisanta.  The four propositions 
currently under discussion are: a political dialog among the 
parties, consulting the communities, conducting a poll and 
choosing the candidate with the most support, or holding 
primary elections.  According to Comando Maisanta's William 
Izarra, Chavez will be the one to choose the method for 
unification.  President Chavez, meanwhile, has reiterated his 
support for the candidates he has chosen, and on his August 
29 "Alo, Presidente" program told his followers to stop 
bickering and unite behind the candidates. 
 
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Opposition Otherwise Occupied 
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5. (U) Chavez opponents continue to debate whether to 
participate in the gubernatorial and mayoral elections, and 
some are hinging their participation on changes to the 
electoral process.  To increase transparency in the upcoming 
regional elections the opposition said they want a manual 
 
 
rather than electronic vote.  If the vote were electronic, 
they propose, then each table should also count the manual 
ballots emitted by the machines.  Yaracuy State Governor 
Eduardo Lapi said, "If Chavez successfully discourages the 
opposition from voting in the regionals, then he will have 
obtained the largest victory in the history of democracy, so 
we (the opposition) have to participate in the regionals on 
the condition that the votes are counted manually." 
 
6. (C) Bolivar State Governor Antonio Rojas Suarez said that 
unless changes were made, no one should participate in the 
regional elections. He said, "If we do not participate in the 
regionals, there will be an institutional crisis." One of 
Tachira State's gubernatorial candidates opposed to Chavez, 
Jose Luis Rincon, agreed with Rojas pointing out that if the 
referendum was a true reflection of the voter's will (which 
he vehemently denied), then Chavista governors will win in 
every state just as Chavez did, especially now that so many 
opposition voters feel robbed and will abstain from voting. 
If the vote was fraudulent, Rincon said, then using the same 
system will allow the GOV to "steal" the regional elections. 
 
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Comment 
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7. (C) Hoping to take advantage of the momentum from the 
August 15 referendum win, plus the opposition's confusion and 
internal arguments, Chavez supporters are pushing to hold 
regional elections on September 26 or soon thereafter.  The 
opposition may benefit from the additional time, but it is 
most unlikely they will be successful in their push for a 
manual count.  They may, however, come to agreement and make 
headway on unified candidates that can compete with 
candidates backed by the Chavez machine. 
McFarland 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02758 - CONFIDENTIAL