US embassy cable - 01HARARE2871

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002871 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, PREL, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: UNDP RESREP ON ABUJA AGREEMENT, UN ENGAGEMENT 
WITH GOZ 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (U) VICTOR ANGELO, THE UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE 
HOSTED A SEPTEMBER 26 BRIEFING FOR AMBASSADORS OF WESTERN 
DIPLOMATS TO UPDATE ON THE PROGRESS CONCERNING THE ABUJA 
ACCORDS (AA).  HE HAD HOSTED EARLIER IN THE DAY A MEETING 
WITH THE G-77 TO DISCUSS THE SAME TOPIC.  HE DESCRIBED 
SIX CONCERNS AND THE STEPS THAT UN HAD TAKEN IN 
NEGOTIATING WITH THE GOZ.  IN A FOLLOWING QUESTION AND 
ANSWER SESSION, ANGELO SAID THAT HE EXPECTS THE GOZ TO 
WELCOME INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS ONLY IN A BRIEF 
WINDOW PRECEDING THE ELECTIONS.  BOTH THE UN AND THE 
DIPLOMATS PRESENT EXPRESSED CONCERN OVER THE LACK OF 
PROGRESS IN IMPLEMENTING THE ABUJA ACCORDS.  IF FIGURES 
BACKING SOME OF ANGELO'S CONCERNS ARE CORRECT, ZIMBABWE'S 
FOREX SITUATION AND ECONOMIC CRISIS COULD DEEPEN 
DRAMATICALLY IN 2002. 
 
------------------------------------- 
SPEED-UP ABUJA ACCORDS IMPLEMENTATION 
------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) THE UNDP'S FIRST CONCERN IS SPEEDING UP 
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AA.  ANGELO EXPLAINED THAT HE HAD 
MET WITH THE GOZ AT MANY LEVELS, INCLUDING MEMBERS OF THE 
POLITBURO, THE MINISTER OF JUSTICE, THE SPEAKER OF 
PARLIAMENT, TO URGE PROGRESS ON SEVERAL CONFIDENCE 
BUILDING MEASURES (CBMS).  THESE INCLUDE NO FURTHER 
OCCUPATIONS (THERE HAVE BEEN SOME 50 REPORTED NEW 
OCCUPATIONS SINCE THE AA); A DEMONSTRATED RESPECT FOR THE 
RULE OF LAW (ROL) BY MOVING ILLEGAL OCCUPIERS TO FARMS 
LEGALLY DESIGNATED FOR ACQUISITION OR THOSE 
FARMS ON OFFER; APPROVAL FOR DEPLOYMENT OF A UNDP 
ASSESSMENT TEAM WHOSE TERMS OF REFERENCE WOULD BE TO 
DETERMINE WHAT IS OCCURRING ON THE GROUND; AND 
CLARIFICATION OF IMMEDIATE STEPS THE GOZ WILL TAKE AS 
PART OF THE PROCESS.  UNDP ALSO WANTS TO KNOW WHAT ROLE 
THEY WILL BE EXPECTED TO PLAY.   ANGELO GAVE AN EXAMPLE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02871  01 OF 03  280802Z 
OF THE DILEMMA THAT THE GOZ FACES: IF THE GOZ NUMBER OF 
7,889 FAMILIES OF ILLEGAL OCCUPIERS IS USED, THERE ARE A 
TREMENDOUS NUMBER OF PEOPLE TO BE MOVED.  HOWEVER, TO 
DATE ONLY FIVE FARMS HAVE GONE THROUGH THE ADMINISTRATIVE 
COURTS AND ACTUALLY BEEN LEGALLY ACQUIRED. 
 
3.  (U) ANGELO SAID THAT THE SYG DETERMINED THAT THE UN 
HAS WAITED LONG ENOUGH FOR A RESPONSE FROM THE GOZ, AND 
AS A RESULT MARK MALLOCH-BROWN SENT A LETTER TO FOREIGN 
MINISTER MUDENGE (DELIVERED IN NEW YORK ON SEPTEMBER 21 
AND SEPTEMBER 23 IN ZIMBABWE--COPY NOT SHARED) THAT 
REPORTEDLY ADDRESSED (1) HOW THE UN SEES ITS ROLE, 
(APPARENTLY ALONG THE LINES OF THE DECEMBER 2000 MALLOCH- 
BROWN LETTER); (2) PROPOSED POTENTIAL NEXT STEPS; (3) THE 
FOREIGN MINISTER'S BRIEFING OF THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON 
SEPTEMBER 20 AND APPRECIATION FOR THE PUBLIC GOZ 
ENDORSEMENT OF THE AA; (4) THE GOZ'S DECEMBER 2000 
PROPOSALS; (5) THE UN'S READINESS TO WORK WITH THE GOZ ON 
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AA; (6) UNDP'S NEED FOR PERMISSION 
TO SEND IN AN ASSESSMENT TEAM HEADED BY A DEPUTY UNDER 
SECRETARY ON SEPTEMBER 25 TO IDENTIFY CAPACITY 
 
SIPDIS 
CONSTRAINTS IN IMPLEMENTING THE AA, TO IDENTIFY 
HUMANITARIAN NEEDS, AND TO OUTLINE WHAT COULD BE AN 
ACCEPTABLE LAND REFORM PROGRAM; AND (7) A REPLY FROM THE 
FOREIGN MINISTER BEFORE HE COMMENCED HIS EXTENDED TRAVEL 
TO SOUTH EAST ASIA AND THEN BRISBANE.  THE FOREIGN 
MINISTER DEPARTED SEPTEMBER 26 WITHOUT REPLYING, ALTHOUGH 
THE RESREP WAS TOLD THE PRESIDENCY HAD APPROVED THE 
LETTER AND UN EXPECTS A RESPONSE. 
 
4.  (U) THE RESREP ALSO REPORTED THAT VICE PRESIDENT 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02871  01 OF 03  280802Z 
MSIKA, CHAIRMAN OF THE GOZ LAND COMMITTEE, HELD A MEETING 
ON 9/19 WITH GOVERNORS, PROVINCIAL ADMINISTRATORS, THE 
ZRP, AND REPRESENTATIVES OF THE WAR VETERANS.  THE 
POLICIES ANNOUNCED INCLUDED (1) AN IMMEDIATE RETURN TO 
THE ROL; (2) SUSPENSION OF THE A-2 RESETTLEMENT SCHEMES 
FOR SMALL SCALE COMMERCIAL FARMERS THAT HAD BEEN DUE TO 
BE LAUNCHED BY THE MINISTER OF AG; (3) REMOVAL OF ILLEGAL 
SETTLERS BY THE ZRP; AND (5) EMPHASIS THAT NO CRIMINAL OR 
ILLEGAL ACTS WOULD BE TOLERATED.  IMPLEMENTATION WAS DUE 
TO BEGIN ON 9/25, BUT NOTHING CONCRETE HAS OCCURRED ON 
THE GROUND. 
 
--------------- 
DOMESTIC DIALOG 
--------------- 
 
5.  (U) THE RESREP NEXT DISCUSSED THE ISSUE OF A DOMESTIC 
DIALOG AS RECOMMENDED BY THE SADC HEADS OF STATE.  HE 
INDICATED THAT HE WAS INITIALLY ENCOURAGED BY THE CFU AND 
AGS AGREEMENT TO SUSPEND THE SUPREME COURT HEARING ON THE 
LEGALITY OF THE LAND REFORM PROGRAM PENDING DIALOG. 
HOWEVER, A SEPTEMBER 24 MEETING BETWEEN THE CFU AND THE 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTO0178 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02871  02 OF 03  280802Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00  DODE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    UTED-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   DCP-01   NSAE-00  IRM-00   TEST-00 
      DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------2693BF  280803Z /38 
O 280738Z SEP 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9847 
NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 002871 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, PREL, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: UNDP RESREP ON ABUJA AGREEMENT, UN ENGAGEMENT 
WITH GOZ 
 
GOZ WAS NOT FRUITFUL, AND THE PARTIES WENT BACK TO THE 
COURTS ON SEPTEMBER 26.  A RULING IS EXPECTED SHORTLY, 
ALTHOUGH EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE FINAL JUDGMENT WILL BE 
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER THE BRISBANE CHOGM MEETINGS. 
 
6.  (U) LATER IN QUESTIONING, THE U.S. ASKED IF ANY 
PROGRESS HAD BEEN MADE CONCERNING THE SADC LEADERS' 
RECOMMENDATION THAT THE PARLIAMENT OF ZIMBABWE FORM A 
BIPARTISAN COMMITTEE TO EXAMINE THE ISSUE OF LAND REFORM. 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02871  02 OF 03  280802Z 
THE RESREP ADVISED THAT HE HAD MET WITH SPEAKER OF 
PARLIAMENT MNANGAGWA WHO INFORMED HIM THAT A BIPARTISAN 
PARLIAMENTARY LAND AND AGRICULTURE PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 
ALREADY EXISTS.  THE RESREP TOLD THE SPEAKER THAT BOTH 
UNDP AND USAID, THE PRINCIPAL DONORS WHO ASSIST 
PARLIAMENT, STAND READY TO HELP STRENGTHEN THIS COMMITTEE 
AS NEEDED. 
 
----------------------------- 
CREDIBLE REPORTING/MONITORING 
----------------------------- 
 
7.  (U) AN FAO/WFP TEAM IS CURRENTLY IN-COUNTRY ASSESSING 
CAPACITY BUILDING NEEDS OF THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE TO 
ESTABLISH A CREDIBLE, INDEPENDENT MONITORING SYSTEMS. 
LATER IN QUESTIONING, THE EU SOUGHT CLARIFICATION OF THE 
FAO TEAM'S TERMS OF REFERENCE AND WHETHER IT WAS CAPACITY 
BUILDING WITH THE FOCUS OF LAND REFORM IMPLEMENTATION. 
ANGELO SAID THE TEAM WAS ASSESSING WHAT STEPS WERE NEEDED 
TO ESTABLISH A MONITORING SYSTEM FOR THE CBMS, AND 
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AA. 
 
-------------------------------- 
THE UP-COMING AGRICULTURE SEASON 
-------------------------------- 
 
8. (U) THE FOURTH UNDP CONCERN CENTERS ON THE UP-COMING 
AGRICULTURAL SEASON AND THE ABILITY OF COMMERCIAL AND 
RESETTLED FARMERS TO UNDERTAKE LAND PREPARATION AND 
PLANTING IN ADVANCE OF THE RAINS IN LATE 
OCTOBER/NOVEMBER.  THE RESREP EXUDED PESSIMISIAM ON THIS 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02871  02 OF 03  280802Z 
ISSUE.  HE SAID THAT EVEN IF THE GOZ FIGURE OF 120,000 
RESETTLED FARMERS IS ACCEPTED, AND ONE ASSUMES A MINIMUM 
OF ONE HECTARE PER FAMILY, ONLY 5,249 HECTARES HAVE BEEN 
PLOWED IN RESETTLEMENT AREAS AS OF LATE SEPTEMBER.  IN 
TERMS OF THE Z$6.0 BILLION BUDGET APPROVED FOR 
RESETTLEMENT SUPPORT, ONLY $200 MILLION HAS BEEN 
DISBURSED.  UN TECHNICAL EXPERTS ESTIMATE ON THE BASIS OF 
CURRENT LAND PREPARATION THAT THE 180,000 MT OF TOBACCO 
HARVESTED THIS SEASON WILL SHRINK TO LESS THAN 100,000 MT 
NEXT YEAR. 
 
9.  (U) COMMENT:  ACCORDING TO THE TOBACCO INDUSTRY, 
INTERNATIONAL BUYERS REQUIRE A MINIMUM OF 150,000 MT FROM 
ZIMBABWE.  IF THIS AMOUNT IS NOT FORTHCOMING, BUYERS WILL 
SEEK OTHER MARKETS.  GIVEN THAT THEY MUST ALSO UNDERTAKE 
REMIXING/FORMULATION OF BLENDS, IT WILL BE YEARS BEFORE 
WORLD BUYERS RETURN TO ZIMBABWE EVEN IF THE TOBACCO 
INDUSTRY REBOUNDS.  WE ARE TOLD THAT AFTER THE SANCTIONS 
IN THE 1970S, IT TOOK TEN YEARS TO ATTRACT THE BUYERS TO 
THE ZIMBABWE MARKET.  END COMMENT. 
 
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HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 
----------------------- 
 
10.  (U) THE UN RELIEF AND REHABILITATION SECRETARIAT IS 
FUNCTIONING.  THREE WFP STAFF ARE ASSIGNED AND AN INTERIM 
COORDINATOR HIRED PENDING FINAL SELECTION OF A HA EXPERT 
AS THE COORDINATOR.  ANGELO REPORTED THAT BY NEXT WEEK A 
MATRIX OF NGO PROGRAMS BY REGION AND TYPE WOULD BE 
AVAILABLE. 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02871  02 OF 03  280802Z 
 
-------------------------------------- 
THE UN IS ON CALL, BUT WHO IS CALLING? 
-------------------------------------- 
 
11.  (U) ANGELO SUMMARIZED BY SAYING THE UN SYSTEM IS ON 
CALL TO ASSIST THE GOZ IN IMPLEMENTING THE AA.  KEY TO 
THIS WILL BE THE GOZ RESPONSE TO THE MALLOCH-BROWN 
LETTER.  WHILE ANGELO EXPRESSED HOPE, HE ALSO RECALLED 
THE DECEMBER 2000 MALLOCH-BROWN LETTER, WHICH THE GOZ 
TOOK THREE MONTHS TO ANSWER. 
 
12.  (U) SYG ANAN WROTE TO PRESIDENT MBEKI JUST PRIOR TO 
THE SEPTEMBER 10 SADC MEETING IN HARARE SAYING THAT THE 
UN HAD NOT RECEIVED A GOZ REQUEST FOR AN INDEPENDENT 
ASSESSMENT OF WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON THE GROUND.  HE NOTED 
THAT THE UN IS WILLING TO RESPOND, BUT STRESSED THE 
IMPORTANCE OF AN ASSESSMENT IN ESTABLISHING THE FACTS 
CONCERNING THE STATUS OF THE "FAST TRACK" PROGRAM. 
 
13.  (U) THE UK ASKED ABOUT THE TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR 
THE ASSESSMENT.  THE RESREP RESPONDED THAT THERE WERE 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTO0179 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02871  03 OF 03  280803Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00  DODE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    UTED-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   DCP-01   NSAE-00  IRM-00   TEST-00 
      DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------2693D2  280803Z /38 
O 280738Z SEP 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9848 
NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 002871 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, PREL, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: UNDP RESREP ON ABUJA AGREEMENT, UN ENGAGEMENT 
WITH GOZ 
 
ISSUES WITH THE TOR AND THAT SOME "REPACKAGING" MIGHT BE 
NEEDED.  HE OFFERED AN EXAMPLE, SAYING THE GOZ HAD 
OBJECTED TO THE TASK OF "ASSESSING LEGITIMACY OF CURRENT 
SETTLERS" WHICH, OF COURSE, IS CRITICAL TO ASSESSING 
WHETHER THE GOZ IS FOLLOWING THEIR OWN BENEFICIARY 
SELECTION CRITERIA. 
 
------------------------ 
OTHER COMMENTS/QUESTIONS 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02871  03 OF 03  280803Z 
------------------------ 
 
-- SWEDEN ASKED ABOUT PROGRESS ON OTHER ASPECTS OF THE 
AA, SPECIFICALLY ELECTION OBSERVATION/MONITORING.  THE 
RESREP SAID SARDONICALLY THAT HE EXPECTED THE GOZ TO 
WELCOME INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS 15 DAYS BEFORE THE 
ELECTIONS, REMINDING THE GROUP THAT THE ABUJA AGREEMENT 
CALLED FOR "INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS TO RESPOND POSITIVELY 
TO ANY GOZ REQUEST IN SUPPORT OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS." 
 
-- THE U.S. ASKED THE RESREP TO COMMENT ON GOZ 
WILLINGNESS TO CONSIDER THE BROADER ROL LAW ISSUES BEYOND 
THE QUESTION OF ROL CONCERNING LAND.  THE RESREP SAID 
THAT THIS WAS MORE "COMPLEX" BUT THAT THE ABUJA ACCORDS 
REFERRED TO THE ROL "THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY" AND 
SPECIFICALLY STATED THAT LAND CANNOT BE SEPARATED FROM 
DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS, AND THE ECONOMY. 
 
-- GERMANY ASKED ABOUT THE SPEED AT WHICH DONOR FUNDS 
MIGHT BE MADE AVAILABLE FOR LAND REFORM, TO WHICH ANGELO 
RESPONDED THAT THE GOZ WOULD LIKE TO SEE A CBM FROM THE 
DONORS THAT ENTAILED DEPOSIT OF RESOURCES IN A TRUST FUND 
TO BE RELEASED UPON SATISFACTORY AGREEMENT ON THE LAND 
REFORM PROGRAM.  HE SAID THE GOZ UNDERSTOOD THAT SUCH 
FUNDS WOULD BE RETURNED TO THE DONORS IF THE LAND REFORM 
DID NOT SUCCEED. 
 
-- NORWAY ASKED ABOUT THE SADC/G-77 MEETING EARLIER IN 
THE DAY AND WHAT THE IMPRESSIONS OF THESE DIPLOMATS WERE. 
THE RESREP SAID THE SADC COUNTRIES WERE CONCERNED ABOUT 
THE LAGGARDLY IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AA, AND SEVERAL 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02871  03 OF 03  280803Z 
PRESSED THE UN TO PROCEED WITH THE ASSESSMENT AT ONCE. 
THE RESREP EXPLAINED THAT IT WAS NOT POSSIBLE TO IMPOSE A 
TEAM WITHOUT GOZ AGREEMENT. 
 
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COMMENT 
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14.  (SBU) ANGELO WAS AS UPBEAT AS POSSIBLE, WHICH WAS 
NOT MUCH.  IN SIDE CONVERSATIONS WITH OTHER DONORS, 
SKEPTICISM REIGNED.  WE DO NOT KNOW THE BASIS FOR 
ANGELO'S INFORMATION ON REDUCED TOBACCO CULTIVATION - GOZ 
STATISTICS, SITE VISITS, FLIGHT TRANSECTS - BUT IF HIS 
DATA IS CORRECT, ZIMBABWE IS IN FOR AN EVEN ROUGHER 
ECONOMIC RIDE TWELVE MONTHS FROM NOW. 
 
ROTH 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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