US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO1438

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 001438 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
FOR AID/DCHA/OFDA MICHAEL MARX AND ROB THAYER, 
AID/DCHA/FFP, ANE/SA AND STATE/SA 
BRUSSELS FOR USEC 
ROME PLEASE PASS FODAG 
KATHMANDU FOR OFDA WILLIAM BERGER 
BANGKOK FOR OFDA TOM DOLAN 
GENEVA FOR UNOCHA AND IFRC NANCE KYLOH 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECONOMICS 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA DROUGHT DISASTER DECLARATION 
 
SUMMARY: 
 
1. AS A RESULT OF PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN SRI 
LANKA, THE U.S.CHARG?D'AFFAIRS DECLARES THAT A DISASTER 
DOES EXIST AND IS BEYOND THE CAPACITY OF THE HOST 
GOVERNMENT TO RESPOND, THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF SRI LANKA 
WILL ACCEPT USG ASSISTANCE AND THAT IT IS IN THE INTEREST 
OF THE USG TO PROVIDE SUCH ASSISTANCE.  AT THE REQUEST OF 
THE EMBASSY AND USAID MISSION, THE USAID/OFDA REGIONAL 
ADVISOR FOR SOUTH ASIA, WILLIAM BERGER, JOINED 
USAID/COLOMBO STAFF FOR A THREE-DAY ASSESSMENT TRIP TO THE 
MOST AFFECTED DISTRICTS OF ANURADHAPURA, PUTTALAM, AND 
KURUNEGALA.  THE FOOD SITUATION IS CURRENTLY MANAGEABLE, 
BUT BEARS WATCHING.  THERE WILL BE A NEED TO REASSESS THE 
SITUATION PERIODICALLY, AS DONOR APPEALS MAY NOT BE MET, 
STRAINING GOVERNMENT OF SRI LANKA (GSL) RELIEF RESOURCES. 
THE DROUGHT HAS BEEN SAID TO BE LESS THAN A FULL-SCALE 
DISASTER, BUT THERE ARE POCKETS OF EXTREME VULNERABILITY 
THAT ARE SOMETIMES HIDDEN AND REQUIRE CAREFUL TARGETING. 
THE OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR RECOMMENDS USE OF INITIAL 
DISASTER-DECLARATION AUTHORITY RESOURCES AND AN ADDITIONAL 
AMOUNT OF 50 THOUSAND DOLLARS FROM OFDA TO SUPPORT 
EMERGENCY DRINKING WATER SUPPLY EFFORTS.  ADDITIONAL 
RESOURCES FOR PURCHASE OF SEEDS MAY BE REQUESTED UPON 
FURTHER MISSION ASSESSMENT AND DISCUSSION WITH OFDA 
REPRESENTATIVES.  NOTE: THIS DROUGHT HIGHLIGHTS THE 
GROWING SCARCITY OF WATER AND THE NEED FOR IMPROVED 
PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OF SURFACE AND GROUND WATER 
RESOURCES, DROUGHT PREPAREDNESS AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT IN 
SOUTH ASIA. END SUMMARY. 
 
GENERAL SITUATION: 
 
2. A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION IN SRI LANKA 
OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS HAS RESULTED IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS 
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.  IN SEVERAL DISTRICTS' 
RESERVOIRS, THE MAJOR SOURCE OF SURFACE WATER, ARE ALL BUT 
DRIED UP.  FALLING WATER TABLES HAVE MADE TUBE WELLS 
INOPERABLE AND LEFT THE RURAL POPULATION DEPENDANT ON THE 
GOVERNMENT TANKER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM FOR DRINKING WATER. 
SUSTAINED RAINFALL OVER THE COMING MONTHS WILL BE 
NECESSARY TO RESTORE HYDROELECTRIC AND IRRIGATION 
RESERVOIRS TO NORMAL CONDITIONS. 
 
3. FOR A SMALL COUNTRY, SRI LANKA HAS CONSIDERABLE 
VARIABILITY IN RAINFALL, BOTH TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY. 
THE DROUGHT IMPACTS ARE UNEVEN AS WELL, WITH THE MOST 
SEVERE IMPACTS FELT BY FARMERS RELYING ON RAIN-FED 
AGRICULTURE IN THE DRY REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY. 
 
4. THE GOVERNMENT OF SRI LANKA'S (GSL) DEPARTMENT OF 
SOCIAL SERVICES ESTIMATES THAT OVER 700,000 FAMILIES 
COMPRISING 3.5 MILLION PEOPLE IN 16 DISTRICTS HAVE BEEN 
AFFECTED BY THE DROUGHT.  WHILE KNOWLEDGEABLE INFORMANTS 
SAY THESE STATISTICS ARE SOMEWHAT INFLATED, ALL AGREE THAT 
A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE RURAL POOR IN THE DRY AREAS 
ARE IN NEED OF IMMEDIATE ASSISTANCE.  WORLD FOOD PROGRAM 
(WFP) REPORTS ANURADHAPURA, PUTTALAM, AND KURUNEGALA TO BE 
THE MOST SERIOUSLY AFFECTED DISTRICTS WITH MANY FARMERS 
HAVING LOST TWO TO THREE SEASONS OF CROPS. 
 
5.  FROM AUGUST 19-25 THE OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR FOR SOUTH 
ASIA, WILLIAM BERGER, TRAVELED TO SRI LANKA TO ASSESS THE 
SITUATION AND PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO OFDA AND THE 
COLOMBO MISSION ON POSSIBLE RESPONSES.  A TEAM CONSISTING 
OF THE REGIONAL ADVISOR; BENJAMIN KAUFFELD, HEALTH AND 
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE PROGRAM MANAGER, USAID/SRI LANKA; 
AND ANOJA JAYASURIYA, HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE PROGRAM 
ASSISTANT ALSO OF USAID/SRI LANKA, TRAVELED TO 
ANURADHAPURA, PUTTALAM, AND KURUNEGALA DISTRICTS WHERE 
THEY INTERVIEWED LOCAL FARMERS IMPACTED BY THE DROUGHT, 
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, NGOS AND INGO'S WORKING IN THE AREA. 
RETURNING TO COLOMBO THE TEAM MET WITH DISASTER RESPONDERS 
INCLUDING CARE, SAVE THE CHILDREN, IFRC AND THE SRI LANKA 
RED CROSS.  THE TEAM ALSO ACCOMPANIED AMERICAN CHARGE D' 
AFFAIRS, JAMES ENTWISTLE, TO A DONOR APPEAL MEETING HELD 
BY THE MINISTRY OF RELIEF, REHABILITATION AND 
RECONCILIATION. 
 
6. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THESE INTERVIEWS AND MEETINGS 
WAS THAT DRINKING WATER SUPPLY IS THE KEY IMMEDIATE 
CONCERN AND THAT ADDITIONAL WATER BOWSERS (TANKER TRUCKS 
AND TRAILERS) AND STATIONARY TANKS WOULD GREATLY 
FACILITATE THE DISTRIBUTION OF DRINKING WATER.  GIVEN THE 
MAGNITUDE OF THE WATER DISTRIBUTION REQUIRED, THE 
GOVERNMENT WILL NEED SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE NGO 
COMMUNITY FOR LOGISTICS, DISTRIBUTION AND TARGETING OF THE 
MOST VULNERABLE GROUPS. 
 
7.  FOOD NEEDS ARE BEING MET AT PRESENT THROUGH A 
GOVERNMENT FOOD SCHEME THAT DISTRIBUTES A PACKET OF RICE, 
LENTILS, OIL AND SUGAR VALUED AT ABOUT USD 15 PER FAMILY 
PER MONTH FOR THE MOST AFFECTED COMMUNITIES.  THE SCHEME 
WILL OPERATE FOR THREE MONTHS, AT WHICH TIME THE 
GOVERNMENT EXPECTS THE LATE MONSOON RAINS.  THERE APPEARS, 
SO FAR, TO BE NO CONTINGENCY PLANNING ON THE PART OF THE 
GOVERNMENT ON HOW THEY WILL RESPOND IF LATE MONSOON RAINS 
ARE INADEQUATE OR FAIL COMPLETELY.  THERE MAY BE A PROBLEM 
WITH SUPPLY OF SEEDS AND FARMERS' ABILITY TO PURCHASE 
THEM.  COPING MECHANISMS OF SOME FAMILIES HAVE BEEN NEARLY 
EXHAUSTED, WHILE OTHERS HAVE ADEQUATE SUPPORT FROM NON- 
FARM INCOME, THUS A FOCUS ON TARGETING AID TO THE MOST 
VULNERABLE IS REQUIRED.  WHILE MOST FARMERS INTERVIEWED 
HAVE HAD TO BORROW FROM LOCAL MONEYLENDERS, THEY EXPRESSED 
CONFIDENCE THAT IF THE RAINS COME, THEY WILL STILL BE ABLE 
TO GET SEEDS ON CREDIT.  THIS DEMONSTRATES ONCE AGAIN THAT 
WHILE INFORMAL SOURCES OF BORROWING CAN SOMETIMES BE 
EXPLOITATIVE, THE SYSTEM STILL REMAINS A CRITICAL COPING 
STRATEGY FOR THE RURAL POOR. 
 
8. WHILE THIS ASSESSMENT FOCUSES PRIMARILY ON THE SHORT- 
TERM DISASTER SITUATION, IT MUST BE NOTED THAT MANY 
ORGANIZATIONS, INCLUDING IFRC, LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND NGOS 
REPEATED THAT LONG-TERM SOLUTIONS ARE NEEDED TO ADDRESS 
WATER SCARCITY AND FOOD SECURITY ISSUES IN SRI LANKA. 
 
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE: 
 
9. RAIN-FED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION HAS BEEN NEARLY 
ELIMINATED FOR MORE THAN A YEAR IN SOME AREAS.  MOST 
TRADITIONAL IRRIGATION RESERVOIRS, KNOWN LOCALLY AS TANKS, 
ARE COMPLETELY DRY IN THE THREE MOST AFFECTED DISTRICTS. 
LARGER IRRIGATION SCHEMES HAVE BEEN AFFECTED AS WELL WITH 
PADDY PRODUCTION.  FAO ESTIMATES THAT AGRICULTURAL 
PRODUCTION COMPARED TO LAST YEAR IS DOWN BY 77 PERCENT IN 
KURUNEGALA, 37 PERCENT IN ANARADHAPURA, AND 63 PERCENT IN 
PUTTALAM DISTRICTS.  FOOD IS AVAILABLE IN LOCAL MARKETS 
WITH MOST SOURCES REPORTING MOSTLY STABLE PRICES WITH SOME 
INCREASES IN RURAL AREAS.  OVERALL, FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE 
COUNTRY APPEARS ADEQUATE TO MEET THE DEMAND. 
 
10. FAMILIES WITH SUFFICIENT OFF-FARM INCOME ARE FOOD 
SECURE.  SOME FAMILIES RECEIVE REMITTANCES FROM FAMILY 
MEMBERS IN THE MILITARY OR WORKING ABROAD.  OFFICIAL 
FIGURES PUT THE CONTRIBUTION OF OVERSEAS REMITTANCES AT 
1.2 BILLION DOLLARS BUT THIS FIGURE COULD BE HIGHER DUE TO 
INFORMAL SYSTEMS FOR RECEIVING REMITTANCE MONEY.  FOR 
SUBSISTENCE FARMERS LACKING REMITTANCES, THE FOOD SECURITY 
PROBLEM IS HEIGHTENED BY LOST INCOME OPPORTUNITIES IN THE 
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR.  RURAL FAMILIES DEPENDANT ON 
REMITTANCE INCOME FROM FAMILY MEMBERS INVOLVED IN THE 
GARMENT TRADE ARE LIKELY TO LOSE THAT INCOME WITH THE 
PHASE-OUT OF THE MULTI-FIBER AGREEMENT. 
 
11. WFP AND FAO HAVE IDENTIFIED THE NEED FOR SEEDS, 
SUPPORTING AGRICULTURAL MATERIALS AND INPUTS, AND A 
MECHANISM TO ENGAGE FARMERS TO WORK IN THEIR FIELDS 
WITHOUT SEEKING OUTSIDE EMPLOYMENT FOR THE NEXT GROWING 
SEASON.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SUPPLY OF 
SEEDS WITHIN THE COUNTRY AND EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR SEED 
PROVISION MAY BE REQUIRED. 
 
HEALTH: 
 
12. IN GENERAL, THE HEALTH SITUATION APPEARS TO BE UNDER 
CONTROL BUT LOW NUTRITION INTAKE AND DECREASING WATER 
AVAILABILITY COULD LEAD TO PROBLEMS.  LOCAL HEALTH 
CAPACITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO ADDRESS POSSIBLE DROUGHT- 
RELATED DISEASE OUTBREAKS SO LONG AS PROVISION OF CLEAN 
DRINKING WATER IS MAINTAINED. 
 
13. THERE WERE NO VISIBLE SIGNS OF DROUGHT-INDUCED 
MALNUTRITION, BUT A GENERAL PERCEPTION THAT NUTRITIONAL 
INTAKE HAS SUFFERED AMONG THE MOST VULNERABLE.  SOME RURAL 
FARMERS INTERVIEWED SAID THAT THEIR FAMILIES ARE NOW 
EATING ONLY TWO MEALS A DAY. 
 
 
CAPABILITY AND CAPACITY: 
 
14.  SRI LANKA IS NOT PRONE TO DROUGHT OR DISASTERS. 
HOWEVER, INCREASED DEFORESTATION AND POPULATION 
ENCROACHMENT OVER THE YEARS HAS TENDED TO EXACERBATE THE 
CONSEQUENCES OF NATURAL CALAMITIES WHEN THEY DO OCCUR. 
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND 
CAUSED LANDSLIDES AND FLOODING THAT DISLOCATED THOUSANDS 
LAST YEAR.  OVERALL, EDUCATIONAL AND INCOME LEVELS OF THE 
POPULATION ARE HIGH RELATIVE TO OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE 
REGION BUT ARE CONCENTRATED IN THE MAJOR URBAN AREAS. 
THIS INCLUDES CONSIDERABLE EXPERTISE IN AGRICULTURAL 
DEVELOPMENT AND WATER MANAGEMENT BUT DOES NOT EXTEND TO 
OPERABLE PLANS FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION 
BECAUSE OF THE SHORTAGE OF HUMAN SKILLS AND MATERIAL 
RESOURCES AND A HIGHLY CENTRALIZED FORM OF ADMINISTRATION 
AND DECISION MAKING.  RESPONSES AND LEVELS OF ASSISTANCE 
ARE CONSEQUENTLY COMPROMISED AND WHILE SMALL INCIDENCES 
MAY SEEM MAGNIFIED OUT OF PROPORTION, LONGER LASTING 
MEASURES TO IMPROVED DISASTER MANAGEMENT CAPABILITY ARE 
NOT UNDERTAKEN.  ADMINISTRATIVE ENTANGLEMENTS ASIDE, SRI 
LANKA WOULD BE BETTER POISED TO RESPOND TO THE CURRENT 
DISASTER WERE IT NOT FOR THE ECONOMIC BURDEN INCURRED BY 
TWENTY YEARS OF CONFLICT.  DESPITE THE TENUOUS CEASE FIRE 
AGREEMENT SIGNED IN EARLY 2002 AND THE SIGNIFICANT 
ADVANCES IN REINVIGORATING THE ECONOMY ACHIEVED BY 
PREVIOUS OPEN-MARKET ORIENTED REFORM-MINDED GOVERNMENT, 
SRI LANKA'S ECONOMY HAS NOT FULLY RECOVERED GROWING AT 
ONLY 5 PERCENT LAST YEAR.  THE PROTRACTED PEACE TALKS AND 
THE ADDITIONAL EXPENSE REPRESENTED BY THE PRESENT 
ADMINISTRATION'S COMMITMENT TO ITS SOCIAL COMPACT WITH THE 
ELECTORATE HAS STRETCHED AVAILABLE RESOURCES AND THREATENS 
TO PUSH THE GSL FURTHER INTO DEBT. 
 
 
 
15. STILL, THE GOVERNMENT IS ABLE TO PROVIDE SOME 
ASSISTANCE AND HAS DONE SO, ALTHOUGH IT WELCOMES EXTERNAL 
SUPPORT FOR THIS EFFORT.  ONE DIFFICULTY THE GOVERNMENT 
FACES IS AN INABILITY TO TARGET THE MOST VULNERABLE IN THE 
POPULATION, GREATLY INCREASING THE SIZE OF THE REQUIRED 
RELIEF EFFORT. 
 
HYDRO-METEOROLOGY 
 
16. THERE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN AN OVERALL REDUCTION IN 
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE PAST FIVE 
YEARS.  IT IS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER THIS IS A TEMPORARY 
PHENOMENON OR AN INDICATION OF MORE PERMANENT CHANGE. 
PRECIPITATION IN SRI LANKA HAS A HIGH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL 
VARIABILITY AND COASTAL GAUGES ARE NOT AN ACCURATE 
REPRESENTATION OF RAINFALL IN THE UPPER DRAINAGE BASIN 
WHERE MOST DRY-ZONE FARMERS LIVE.  PROPER RAINFALL TIMING 
IS ESSENTIAL FOR RAIN-FED AGRICULTURE NEEDS AND ANNUAL 
RAINFALL IS NOT AN ACCURATE INDICATOR. 
 
17. IN ADDITION TO CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION IN THE DRY 
AREAS, POPULATION SHIFTS AND DISPLACEMENT DUE TO THE 
CONFLICT HAVE TAKEN PLACE OVER THE PAST TEN YEARS WITH NEW 
SETTLERS BROUGHT IN TO FARM IN NEWLY ESTABLISHED 
IRRIGATION SCHEMES.  THESE IRRIGATION SCHEMES HAVE FAILED 
TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE WATER FOR RESETTLED POPULATIONS DUE TO 
LACK OF RAIN IN THE BASIN, COUPLED BY AGRICULTURISTS IN 
THE UPPER BASIN AREA EXTRACTING MORE GROUND WATER, WHICH 
WOULD NORMALLY FLOW TO THE IRRIGATION SCHEME.  THE BASIN'S 
HYDROLOGY, IRRIGATION SYSTEMS AND AGRICULTURE PRACTICES 
NEED TO BE BETTER UNDERSTOOD AND MANAGED TO PREVENT 
PROBLEMS OF WATER SCARCITY IN THE FUTURE. 
 
18. STILL, EVEN AT MINIMAL LEVELS, SRI LANKA IS WATER RICH 
COMPARED TO MANY COUNTRIES IN SOUTH ASIA.  WHILE AVAILABLE 
WATER MAY BE AT TIMES INSUFFICIENT FOR TRADITIONAL 
AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES, EVEN SMALL INTERVENTIONS LIKE 
ROOFTOP RAINWATER HARVESTING INCREASED INFILTRATION 
BYRESIDUE AND SURFACE MANAGEMENT WOULD BE HELPFUL TO 
PRECLUDE A DRINKING WATER CRISIS. 
 
 
RECOMMENDATIONS: 
 
19. AS WITH ANY DISASTER SITUATION, CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE 
AND REQUIRE REASSESSMENT.  OFDA AND THE MISSION WILL 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY IN THE LEAD-UP 
TO THE MONSOON RECESSION.  THE OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR 
RECOMMENDS THAT A DISASTER DECLARATION BE MADE AND THAT 
$50,000 UNDER THE CHIEF OF MISSION'S AUTHORITY, ALONG WITH 
AN ADDITIONAL SUM OF $50,000 FROM OFDA, BE GRANTED TO THE 
SRI LANKAN RED CROSS TO SUPPORT EMERGENCY PROVISION OF 
DRINKING WATER IN THE DROUGHT AFFECTED DISTRICTS OF SRI 
LANKA 
 
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES FOR PURCHASE OF SEEDS MAY BE 
REQUESTED UPON FURTHER MISSION ASSESSMENT AND DISCUSSION 
WITH OFDA REPRESENTATIVES. 
 
20. IF LATE MONSOON RAINS FAIL IN SRI LANKA, MISSION MAY 
REQUIRE SUPPORT FROM OFDA FOR ADDITIONAL INTERVENTIONS. 
 
21.  IN ADDITION, OFDA SHOULD CONSIDER, IN ITS 2005 
MITIGATION PORTFOLIO FOR SOUTH ASIA, SUPPORT TO SRI LANKA 
FOR DROUGHT MITIGATION EFFORTS SIMILAR TO WATER RETENTION 
AND WATER THRIFT PROGRAMS THAT OFDA HAS SUPPORTED IN THE 
DROUGHT-PRONE AREAS OF INDIA. 
ENTWISTLE