US embassy cable - 04ZAGREB1529

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ZAGREB 001529 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE-KABUMOTO, EUR/RPM-SHINAGEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2014 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, HR, Defense Reform (Mil & NATO) 
SUBJECT: CROATIA'S NATO STRATEGY: READY TO OPEN MEMBERSHIP 
NEGOTIATIONS IN 1-2 YEARS 
 
Classified By: Poloff Justin Friedman, reasons 1.5 (b) & (d) 
 
Summary and Comment 
-------------------------- 
 
1. (C) In a wide-ranging meeting on August 25, Croatia's 
National NATO Coordinator Pjer Simunovic told us that the 
soon-to-be finished Strategic Defense Review will drive a new 
long term vision for the Croatian armed forces based on the 
premise that Croatia should be prepared for NATO membership, 
regardless of NATO's timing for accession.  The GoC will 
invite ministers from Serbia and Montenegro, Bosnia and 
Herzegovina, Italy, and Turkey to observe the November 12 
Adriatic Charter Partnership Commission meeting, and attend a 
November 13-14 follow-on session.  Simunovic stressed that 
the GoC sees its niche operational role within NATO as 
providing military police, such as the unit currently serving 
in Afghanistan.  He also mentioned the possibility of 
providing special forces, combat engineering, and medical 
units to NATO and UN peacekeeping operations, as well as 
naval capabilities in the Mediterranean.  The GoC's primary 
challenge, beyond the domestic fiscal challenge of securing 
adequate defense budgets, was to develop and implement a 
public relations strategy to ensure the public will support 
joining NATO. 
 
2. (C) Comment:  Completion of the Strategic Defense Review 
will signal a welcome change in the right direction for 
Croatia,s defense policy, and was probably not an easy 
achievement for this government, in view of Croatia,s 
relatively recent need for a very active defense against a 
neighboring state.  Simunovic,s "act like an ally" 
philosophy is heartening, as is his optimism (if not 
misplaced) about maintaining defense budget levels.  We note 
that because the GoC has not signed an Article 98 agreement, 
Croatia must prepare for NATO membership without IMET and 
other assistance that new Allies found so helpful in the 
process.  END SUMMARY and COMMENT. 
 
Ready for Membership when NATO is Ready 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) In Pol/Econ Counselor,s introductory call, the 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs National Coordinator for NATO 
Pjer Simunovic told us that major components of Croatia's 
Strategic Defense Review would be completed by the end of 
2004.  This will drive a long-term defense development plan 
based on the assumption that Croatia was a full member of 
NATO.  When challenged on whether all elements of the 
military supported the transition away from territorial 
defense, Simunovic stressed that the highest levels of the 
GoC have made the political commitment to collective 
security, and that Croatian armed forces were faithfully 
developing the reform programs necessary to implement this 
policy. 
 
4. (C) The main challenge was in securing adequate resources 
to support defense reforms in a tight fiscal environment. 
However, Simunovic was confident that the Ministry of Finance 
had become more "defense sensitive," and he was hopeful that 
defense budgets would stay at about 1.8 percent of GDP. 
Simunovic pointed out that this figure was based on Croatian 
budget definitions, but the figure was just over two percent 
using NATO definitions ) an ambiguity that he found helpful 
in negotiations with the Ministry of Finance. 
 
5. (C) Simunovic said that GoC strategic planning was founded 
on the goal of being fully ready for an invitation by the end 
of the current MAP cycle, i.e. the next 12-24 months. 
 
Act Like a Member 
----------------- 
 
6. (SBU) According to Simunovic, the GoC hoped to use its 
chairmanship of the Adriatic Charter (A3) to show it could 
look and act like a NATO member.  He said that the GoC was 
planning to host an A3 Partnership Commission meeting at the 
Foreign and Defense Ministerial level November 12-14 on the 
island of Briuni.  Ministers from Serbia and Montenegro and 
Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as ministers from Turkey and 
Italy would be invited to join in expanded talks on the 
second day, following initial A3 discussions.  Note: Post 
understands that DAS Stephens provisionally accepted Foreign 
Minister Zuzul's invitation to participate in the Briuni 
meetings at the informal Foreign Ministerial August 6-8 in 
Dubrovnik.  End Note. 
 
Niche Contributions to Afghanistan and Iraq 
 
 
------------------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) The GoC's Strategic Defense Review will state that 
Croatia's defenses must be structured to meet the same 
asymmetrical threats that its future NATO allies face -- 
terrorism and the security/humanitarian spillover from any 
continued regional instability.  Simunovic said that Croatia 
would build niche defense capabilities to meet these threats 
along the lines of its currently in place and planned 
contributions to the ISAF mission.  Croatia is now sending 
its fourth rotation of fifty military police to Afghanistan 
and finalizing its civilian contribution to the German PRT, 
which will consist of 1-2 diplomats, 2-3 civilian police, and 
a civilian medical team.  With A3 partners Albania and 
Macedonia, the GoC is also planning to send an 11 person 
medical team to Kabul this fall. 
 
8. (SBU) In addition to these contributions, Simunovic said 
that Croatia would consider developing capabilities in 
special forces and combat engineering.  The GoC is also 
finalizing concepts for civilian contributions to coalition 
efforts in Iraq, including bringing Iraqi children to Croatia 
for medical treatment (the first seven children arrived in 
Zagreb August 26), providing forensic training for Iraqi 
technicians, and contributing police trainers to the 
Coalition Police Academy in Amman, Jordan.  Simunovic added 
that the GoC also wanted to explore how it could contribute 
to maritime security beyond the Adriatic to the broader 
Mediterranean region. 
 
Public Support for NATO Membership 
---------------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) Simunovic noted that while broad support at the 
political level for NATO membership was unquestioned, the 
general public lacked knowledge about the advantages of 
membership for Croatia.  The new Annual National Plan will 
lay out a more sophisticated approach and timetable for a 
public relations campaign.  Although polls generally show 
public support for NATO membership hovering at the fifty 
percent level, Simunovic was confident that the GoC was at a 
good starting point.  The GoC hoped to work with Slovenia to 
absorb the lessons of its successful PR campaign in its own 
strategy.  Simunovic is organizing a workshop with the A3 
partners on strategies and techniques to promote public 
support for NATO membership.  He asked if the USG could 
provide a "public relations specialist" to participate in the 
workshop, provisionally scheduled for early October.  Post 
will submit a more tailored request for a participant after 
considering which skills and experience would be most 
effective. 
FRANK 
 
 
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