US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN1885

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 001885 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL, EUR/ACE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: MODIFIED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS PACKAGE MOVES 
TO PARLIAMENT 
 
REF: 03 YEREVAN 1066 
 
Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) The three parties of the pro-government ruling 
coalition forwarded a package of proposed constitutional 
amendments to Armenia's National Assembly (NA) in mid-August 
for discussion and approval during the upcoming legislative 
session.  This step was the latest in the continuing saga of 
Council of Europe (CoE)-mandated constitutional modifications 
-- via nationwide referendum -- that the GOAM wants to 
complete before the CoE's June 2005 deadline.  The package 
proposes, inter alia, prolonging parliamentary terms of 
office to five years, reducing the number of parliamentarians 
elected in single-mandate districts and removing the current 
ban on dual citizenship.  Early reactions by opposition 
parliamentarians suggest that debate over the package will 
dominate the upcoming legislative season and could become the 
opposition's next rallying point.  While far from leveling 
the playing field between the executive and legislative 
branches, the proposed amendments, and a promised public 
discussion of their merits and shortcomings, have the 
potential for positive impact.  End Summary. 
 
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COALITION APPLAUDS AMENDMENTS AS THEY MOVE TO NA 
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2. (C) The three parties of the pro-government ruling 
coalition forwarded a package of proposed constitutional 
amendments to Armenia's National Assembly in mid-August. 
This step was the latest in the continuing saga of 
CoE-mandated constitutional modifications -- via nationwide 
referendum -- that the GOAM wants to complete before the 
CoE's June 2005 deadline.  This is the second time the GOAM 
has pushed for constitutional amendments.  The previous 
referendum, held in tandem with the 2003 parliamentary 
elections, failed to garner enough votes to be adopted 
(reftel).  Local sources close to the CoE told us August 26 
that the "jury was still out" on whether the current package 
would satisfy Armenia's commitments and that they expected 
there would be substantial revisions before the package was 
passed by the NA and ready for a referendum. 
 
3. (SBU) Coalition representatives, including Armenian 
Revolutionary Federation (ARF - "Dashnaksutiun") leader Armen 
Rustamyan, publicly endorsed the package soon after its 
release.  National Assembly Deputy Speaker Tigran Torosian 
(Republican Party) made no secret during recent interviews 
with the press that the amendments enjoyed the parliamentary 
leadership's full support as well as that of President 
Kocharian.  According to Torosian and others, Kocharian held 
a closed-door meeting with coalition parliamentary leaders in 
early August to make a push for the amendments and their 
quick passage through parliament. 
 
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PACKAGE CUTS SEATS, EXTENDS TERMS IN PARLIAMENT 
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4. (U) The latest package of amendments, while varying 
slightly from the 2003 version, proposes more than fifty 
changes to Armenia's constitution.  The most important -- and 
most controversial -- amendments would reduce the number of 
parliamentarians in Armenia's National Assembly from 131 to 
121 by limiting the number of NA deputies representing 
single-mandate districts.  (Note:  Armenia's NA is a mix of 
deputies elected from a party list and those representing 
local consitutencies.  End Note)  At the same time, the 
amendments would lengthen parliamentarians' terms of office 
from four to five years.  (Note:  Despite speculation in the 
press earlier this summer, the amendments did not propose a 
similar extension for presidential terms of office or term 
limits.  End Note.) 
 
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DUAL CITIZENSHIP, EXPANDED ROLE OF OMBUDSMAN 
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5. (C) Among the other notable changes proposed by the 
amendment package is a reversal of Article 14 in Armenia's 
current constitution that prohibits dual citizenship.  While 
stipulating a special law to regulate the nuances of dual 
citizenship, the amendment package makes reference to 
Armenia's diaspora and the need for dual citizenship given 
the presence of so many Armenians abroad.  (Note:  The ARF 
had vigorously fought against dual citizenship in the past 
but, in its relatively new role as part of the governing 
coalition, appears to have relented and has remained quiet on 
this particular provision.  ARF representatives have hinted 
to us that their party's extensive funding from diaspora 
sources helped push them into this more conciliatory stance. 
End Note.) 
 
6. (U) Armenia's Human Rights Ombudsman would enjoy an 
expanded role under the amended constitution.  Following 
intense criticism by international human rights groups, the 
amended constitution would mandate the Ombudsman's 
appointment by the legislature instead of by the president. 
In addition, the amendments grant the Ombudsman new authority 
to refer laws to the Constitutional Court for revision. 
 
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TENTATIVE REFERENDUM DATES AND OPPOSITION GRUMBLING 
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7. (SBU) GOAM representatives have predicted easy passage of 
the amendments by the legislature and have even gone so far 
as to suggest a July 5, 2005 date for the nationwide 
referendum.  (Note:  This date is the tenth anniversary of 
Armenia's current constitution and some analysts predict the 
GOAM will appeal to Armenians' patriotism to vote in favor of 
the package by scheduling the vote on this day.  End Note.) 
Opposition leaders, however, have already begun criticizing 
the package and pledging to reject it should it come to a 
vote.  Opposition Justice bloc leaders Aram Sargsyan and 
Victor Dalakian made joint calls for parliamentarians to vote 
against the amendments, calling them "cosmetic changes 
proposed by an illegitimate president."  In a surprise move, 
however, opposition leader Artashes Geghamian has made more 
conciliatory statements in public and has reportedly hinted 
in private that he might return to parliament in order to 
discuss the amendments. 
 
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NEXT STEPS:  VENICE COMMISSION AND PACE WILL WEIGH-IN 
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8. (C) The next substantive step for the constitutional 
amendments package will be review by the Council of Europe's 
Venice Commission.  Sources close to the commission told us 
August 26 that the amendments are already under review even 
though Armenia's National Assembly has not yet formally 
forwarded them outside Yerevan.  The parliamentary elections 
significantly overshadowed the Venice Commission's commentary 
on the amendments package in 2003, and analysts predict that 
its recommendations will by default find a more prominent 
role in the process this time around.  While still early, 
private indications by commission bureaucrats suggest that 
the commission will not cite fundamental flaws in this latest 
amendments package but will prescribe and carefully 
scrutinize a broad consultative process leading up to a 
future referendum.  The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council 
of Europe (PACE) will include debate over the constitutional 
amendments early this Fall.  Local politicians expect 
discussions at PACE to be highly charged and unlikely to 
concentrate on the substance of the amendments package. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9. (SBU) During August, traditionally Armenia's slowest month 
for news of political events, it is no surprise that the 
proposed constitutional amendments have dominated public 
debate over recent weeks.  In stark contrast to the approach 
in 2003 (reftel), this set of amendments already enjoys the 
public support of pro-Kocharian forces who approached the 
topic ambivalently during the previous parliamentary 
election.  Now that the package has Kocharian's stamp of 
approval, it seems likely that the opposition will cling to 
the issue as its new rallying point -- whether or not it ends 
its months-long boycott of parliament -- in what has the 
potential to be a divisive set of debates once the National 
Assembly reconvenes next month. 
 
10. (C) While falling short of leveling the playing field 
between Armenia's executive and legislative branches, the 
proposed constitutional amendments are more than merely 
cosmetic, despite the claims of some opposition leaders.  The 
modest structural changes will significantly add to the 
legitimacy -- both perceived and actual -- of the Human 
Rights Ombudsman and will grant Armenians broader access to 
the Constitutional Court.  These steps are not comprehensive, 
but represent an important start.  GOAM-promised public 
debate of the amendments has the potential to engage civil 
society in a positive way.  As this is the first time 
politicians have linked their political identities to 
constitutional amendments, however, it will be tempting for 
some to muscle the amendments through parliament in a rush. 
The GOAM will show its serious commitment to the constitution 
if it lets the debate run its course over the next few 
months. 
EVANS