US embassy cable - 04ROME3285

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ROME 003285 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR NEA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2014 
TAGS: IR, PREL, IT, IAEA 
SUBJECT: IAEA: ITALY AGREES TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR IRAN 
 
REF: A. STATE 182534 
     B. ROME 2950 
     C. CANBERRA 1597 
 
Classified By: POL M/C Tom Countryman for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary. The Italian MFA continues to prefer a 
strategy that avoids risking breaking off all dialogue with 
Iran, but at the same time acknowledges that the situation in 
the IAEA is getting worse.  While Italy did not explicitly 
say it would vote against a referral to the UNSC, it does not 
see it as a move that would produce the desired results, 
i.e., full compliance with the IAEA, and fears that a vote 
could either backfire -- in Tehran's favor -- or put Tehran's 
back against the wall to the point where it would pull out of 
the NPT altogether.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) Poloff met with MFA Office Director for Disarmament 
Giovanni Iannuzzi and Iran Desk Officer Federica Ferrari 
Bravo to discuss Iran-related points of Ref A demarche on 
August 26.  Iannuzzi, summarizing his understanding of the 
talking points, said that the most important point seemed to 
be that time is running out for Iran.  Poloff reiterated that 
we have already had four strong BOG resolutions condemning 
Iran's behavior and yet it continues to fail to comply fully 
with the IAEA and now is defying commitments made to the EU3 
regarding suspension of enrichment activities.  To be 
credible, the BOG needs to take stronger action. 
 
3. (C) Both agreed the situation for Iran is worse now than 
it was during the June BOG meetings.  However, they continued 
to insist on the need to keep the dialogue open, keep up IAEA 
pressure, and not throw away the good work and progress that 
has been accomplished by IAEA inspections. Iannuzzi noted 
that the inspections have discovered some "skeletons in the 
closet," albeit no outright NPT violations.  He added that 
Iran's progress in ratifying the Additional Protocol is at a 
standstill, hostage to Tehran's efforts to secure more 
favorable terms from the IAEA.  At the same time, Iran is 
applying it when necessary to satisfy inspectors. 
 
4. (C) Ferrari Bravo noted that Italy continues to prefer to 
play a role as mediator, as always, but she agreed with 
Iannuzzi that time is running short.  However, our MFA 
interlocutors said they were not convinced that serious 
action in the form of a referral to the UNSC is warranted. 
On the contrary, it could spur Iran to take action of its 
own.  Ferrari Bravo, who spent four years in Italy's Embassy 
in Tehran, explained that maximum pressure does not frighten 
the Iranians, who face even greater pressure internally. 
They need to feel they are part of a process; if they feel 
they are up against a wall, they will balk -- probably by 
leaving the NPT. 
 
5. (C) Referral to the UNSC, they said, would be an "extreme 
measure" (Iannuzzi) and "last resort" (Ferrari Bravo). 
Furthermore, they argued, it is unlikely a majority of BOG 
members would vote in favor of a referral, in which case Iran 
wins.  When pressed as to whether Italy would vote in favor, 
Iannuzzi sidestepped the question by responding that even if 
all the EU members of the BOG voted in favor along with the 
US, Canada, and Australia, they were still very unlikely to 
reach a majority of the votes. 
 
6. (C) Regarding the EU3 initiative, Iannuzzi and Ferrari 
Bravo both agreed that it had failed.  Iannuzzi said, 
although he wished the initiative had worked, pressure from 
three European countries was doomed to lack the effectiveness 
of pressure from all 25 (i.e., an EU initiative), and that it 
had been clear for at least the last month that the process 
wasn't working.  At the last meeting between the EU3 and the 
Iranians in Paris, the two sides had basically agreed to 
disagree.  (Ferrari Bravo said each side blamed the other for 
failing to keep its promises, to which poloff interjected 
that the burden should be on Iran, not the EU3). Iannuzzi 
opined that, contrary to their promise to the EU3, the 
Iranians had never really suspended enrichment activities, 
using private industry contracts already in place as an 
excuse for having their hands tied. 
 
7. (C) (Strictly protect) Iannuzzi and Ferrari Bravo both 
agreed, and specifically asked poloff not to make written 
note, that the Iranians believe things will change after the 
upcoming US presidential election, regardless of who wins. 
They believe that after November 6 the US will have a clearer 
 
interlocutor for Iran, making it easier to engage in 
productive discussion.  As part of Iran's post-US election 
strategy,  Ferrari Bravo noted that Iranian  Secretary of the 
Iranian Supreme National Security Council Rowani is planning 
to visit European countries in the next few months, just as 
he is doing now in Asia (Ref C). 
 
8. (C) Ferrari Bravo said Italy is in constant dialogue with 
the Iranians, both publicly and privately, and consistently 
sends a strong message on the nuclear issue.  They believe 
the message is getting through to their interlocutors, 
however much denial they profess.  Ferrari Bravo commented, 
"It must be very difficult to be an Iranian diplomat." 
 
9. (C) On human rights, Ferrari Bravo noted the strong 
statement put out by the EU after its most recent human 
rights dialogue with the Iranians.  She added, however, that 
human rights was not Italy's greatest concern with respect to 
Iran at the moment -- the nuclear issue is. 
 
10. (C) Note:  Both Iannuzzi and Ferrari Bravo accompanied 
Under Secretary for Africa and the Middle East Alfredo 
Mantica on his recent trip to Iran (Ref B).  They said, 
despite what the Iran press reports about his meetings, 
Mantica delivers a tough message and has even been criticized 
by the Iranians for being too tough. 
 
Visit Rome's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/rome/index.cf m 
 
SKODON 
 
 
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	2004ROME03285 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL