US embassy cable - 04HARARE1444

UNCLAS HARARE 001444 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVELLE, D. TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, ZI, MDC, March 05 Elections 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION REITERATES TENTATIVE BOYCOTT OF 
ELECTIONS 
 
1. (U) The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) 
announced August 25 that the party,s National Executive had 
decided to suspend participation in elections.  In a briefing 
to the diplomatic corps the same day, MDC President Morgan 
Tsvangirai said the GOZ,s proposed election reforms were not 
 
SIPDIS 
meaningful and that the following would be required for MDC 
to consider participating in elections: an end to political 
violence; repeal of repressive laws such as the Public Order 
and Security Act, the Access to Information and Protection of 
Privacy Act, and the Broadcasting Act; an end to government 
interference with MDC,s activities; and access to the media 
by the opposition.  Tsvangirai added that the MDC applauded 
the SADC protocol on election standards agreed upon in 
Mauritius last week, but it was clear that the Government of 
Zimbabwe did not intend to adhere to those principles. 
 
2. (U) Minister of Justice Patrick Chinamasa, quoted in the 
government-controlled Herald on August 26, said that MDC,s 
decision was a move to avoid certain defeat in the March 2005 
parliamentary elections.  Chinamasa said he would present a 
draft election reform bill to the Cabinet next week. 
 
3. (SBU) COMMENT: The MDC,s position is not new but its 
vocal reiteration at this time probably reflects the party,s 
belief that, in the wake of Mauritius, regional attention is 
at a high water mark.  MDC is convinced that regional 
pressure is key to forcing the GOZ to implement the 
principles it agreed to at the SADC Summit.  The practical 
effect of the MDC,s decision is that it will not contest the 
upcoming by-election in Seke--which it would likely have lost 
in any event.  Longer term, the party has yet to decide 
whether it will contest the parliamentary elections if the 
government fails to undertake real reform.  The MDC would, of 
course, lose such an election, but many in the party believe 
that a boycott would play into ZANU-PF,s hands and destroy 
the MDC.  Still others argue for a boycott followed by a 
campaign of civil disobedience to pressure the government. 
For its part, the ZANU-PF leadership believes it is in the 
driver,s seat and will win big either way--reflecting their 
calculation that most SADC members will accept cosmetic 
reforms and a crushing ZANU-PF victory.  END COMMENT. 
Schultz