US embassy cable - 04GUATEMALA2163

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 002163 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MOPS, GT 
SUBJECT: ARTICLE 98 RATIFICATION PLANS PROGRESSING 
 
REF: GUATEMALA 01994 
 
Classified By: Ambassador J.R. Hamilton for reasons 1.4 (b) 
and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The Foreign Minister is now persuaded that 
moving ahead quickly on Article 98 ratification makes better 
sense than leaving it to an end-of-legislative session rush. 
 The Ambassador's consultations with the FRG and Patriotic 
Party appear to have lined up their support.  If procedural 
tactics in opposition can be managed and if the government 
can deliver all the GANA coalition votes, majority support is 
attainable.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) Since reftel, the Ambassador has consulted on Article 
98 ratification with FRG deputies Arenales and Rios Sosa 
(separately), with GANA caucus leader Saravia, and Patriotic 
Party leader Perez Molina.  All have responded very favorably 
to the Ambassador's request for support, though each wanted 
to consult within party councils before making firm 
commitments.  The Ambassador has a meeting scheduled for 
August 30 with FRG caucus chief Crespo, at which time he 
hopes to obtain a firm commitment.  He will meet with UNE 
party chief Colom August 31 to explore the possibilities with 
that party and will follow up with Congress president Morales 
shortly thereafter.  The conversation with Saravia was 
particularly positive in that he was of the view that the 
government would be better advised to send the agreement 
forward sooner rather than later; he undertook to convey that 
view to FM Briz.  Rios Sosa was helpful in suggesting how to 
avoid having the agreement assigned to a committee where 
there is opposition embedded. 
 
3. (C) The Ambassador's meeting with Foreign Minister Briz 
August 25 was similarly positive, in that Briz concluded 
(apparently not yet having heard from Saravia) that it would 
be better to push the agreement through in the near future, 
rather than wait.  He and the Ambassador discussed further 
details, including his idea to have his staff draft a 
committee report from which a Congressional committee could, 
in the interest of time, crib.  He agreed to consult further 
once he returns from trips to El Salvador and New York, in 
about ten days.  The Ambassador will have carried out his 
further consultations with the Guatemalan Congress in the 
meantime. 
 
4. (C) Comment:  We are not there yet, but these recent 
conversations are encouraging. 
HAMILTON