US embassy cable - 04HARARE1434

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001434 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVELLE, D. TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2009 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: BISHOPS STILL TRYING TO FACILITATE DIALOGUE 
 
REF: LILONGWE 823 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Win Dayton under Section 1.5 b/d 
 
----------- 
Summary 
----------- 
 
1.  (C) Two of the three Mutare Bishops, Sebastian Bakare 
(Anglican Church) and Trevor Manhanga (Evangelical 
Fellowship) updated the Ambassador August 24 on their efforts 
to mediate a resolution of Zimbabawe,s crisis.  Bakare said 
Tanzanian President Mkapa had assured them that he would 
remain engaged on Zimbabwe, including as part of the recently 
established Southern African Development Council (SADC) 
troika (with Mauritius and Botswana).  The bishops said they 
had also requested appointments with Presidents Mugabe (in 
advance of their proposed U.S. trip), Mbeki, and possibly 
Malawian President Mutharika.  End Summary 
 
------------------------------- 
Regional Heat on Mugabe 
------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Bakare and Manhanga reported that along with their 
Catholic counterpart, Bishop Mutume, they had met with 
Tanzanian President Mkapa in Dar es Salaam before the SADC 
summit in Mauritius last week.  Mkapa had told them that 
while in Mauritius he would press President Mugabe on a 
resolution of Zimbabwe's political conflict.  The SADC had 
designated a committee comprising Tanzania, Mauritius, and 
Botwsana (the immediate past, present, and future chairs) to 
address Zimbabwean election issues.  Though not on the 
committee, South Africa would of course continue to exert 
influence.  According to the Bishops, Mkapa had said Mugabe 
was feeling regional heat and would feel more in Mauritius. 
They added that reminders that others "were watching" were 
useful and noted in that regard the impact of criticism by 
traditional sympathizer Namibia at the regional conference of 
election commissions in Victoria Falls in July.  The bishops 
said they expected to get detailed readouts on Mkapa's and 
Mbeki's meetings with Mugabe in Mauritius from the Tanzanian 
and South African embassies shortly, but understood that he 
had been largely isolated at the conference. 
 
3.  (C) In a follow-up telephone exchange with Poloff August 
25, Manhanga said the Tanzanian and South African embassies 
still had not received detailed readouts on their respective 
leaders' meetings with Mugabe in Mauritius.  The Tanzanian 
Ambassador had, however, reported that he understood the 
exchange generally to have been "fruitful" and asserted that 
progress had been made.  Manhanga added that the Bishops 
would reactivate their channel to former Malawian President 
Muluzi with a view to arranging a meeting with visiting 
President Mutharika (ref A) and to inquire about possible UN 
activity on Zimbabwe.  Muluzi had told the bishops in an 
earlier meeting that he had discussed Zimbabwe with Kofi 
Annan, who had broached the possibility of Muluzi acting in 
some UN capacity to stimulate progress on Zimbabwe. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
Implementation of Mauritius Principles Doubtful 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
4.  (C) Bakare and Manhanga said Party Secretary of 
Information Nathan Shamuyarira, one of their ZANU-PF 
interlocutors, had advised them to meet President Mugabe 
before they traveled to the United States next month. 
Manhanga said they had accepted his offer to arrange such a 
meeting but that as yet no appointment had been confirmed. 
They intended to stress to Mugabe the importance of prompt 
implementation of the Mauritius principles.  Bakare said 
dissatisfaction was growing within the ZANU-PF over the 
party's lack of direction and over uncertainties about the 
succession.  Manhanga said the succession issue had the 
potential to split the party.  That said, both agreed that no 
one within the Party would be willing to challenge Mugabe's 
authority and that for now ZANU-PF,s strategy would continue 
to be intimidation of the opposition, along with an attempt 
to mute international and regional criticism with cosmetic, 
and last-minute, changes to the electoral process.  He 
expressed concern that many in the international community 
might be willing to accept such cosmetic reforms and 
suggested the U.S. consider a statement stressing the 
importance of adherence to the Mauritius principles. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Election Delay and MDC Boycotts Possible 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
5.  (C) Manhanga said he had met recently with opposition 
leader Morgan Tsvangirai, and that all three bishops intended 
to meet with him again before traveling to the United States. 
 They said the opposition was considering not contesting any 
parliamentary by-elections until electoral imbalances were 
sufficiently addressed.  (Comment: This is unlikely to have 
an impact on the MDC's effective blocking minority on any 
constitutional amendments in the parliament.  There are 
currently two empty seats and ZANU-PF needs four more to 
reach the 2/3 parliamentary majority required to effect 
constitutional amendments.  End comment.)  Manhanga predicted 
that even without heated debate (an unlikely prospect) simply 
implementing already planned changes, not to mention the 
Mauritius principles, could delay the elections for some 
time.  He added that this would not necessarily be a bad 
thing and could allow time to lay a foundation to they 
support an exit strategy for Mugabe, including possibly 
combined presidential and parliamentary elections. 
 
----------- 
Comment 
----------- 
 
6.  (C) We are encouraged by interest shown among some in the 
region in engaging Mugabe privately, if not publicly.  Still, 
Mkapa's private indications to the bishops sharply contrasted 
with his public rhetoric in Mauritius, which fortified 
Mugabe's stature at home by projecting solidarity against 
"neo-colonial interests."  The inconsistency reflects the 
difficult political line walked by African leaders regarding 
Zimbabwe.  Moreover, we expect Mugabe will continue to lash 
out publicly against African leaders who dare to take issue 
with him.  The increasingly shrill anti-western propaganda 
from the state media reinforces our view that the GOZ intends 
its electoral reforms to be nothing more than superficial 
cover for a SADC endorsement of next year's parliamentary 
elections. 
Schultz