US embassy cable - 04KATHMANDU1697

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 001697 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR INR/I 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2014 
TAGS: PINR, NP, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: NEPAL: THE CPN-UML PARTY (C-NE4-00843) 
 
REF: A. SECSTATE 173471 
 
     B. KATHMANDU 1443 
 
Classified By: DCM Elisabeth I. Millard; Reason 1.4 (d). 
 
1. (U) Post greatly appreciates the opportunity to help 
inform the Department's analytic process.  Post's responses 
are keyed to Ref A questions by letter. 
 
================= 
HISTORY, PLATFORM 
================= 
 
2. (C) The modern CPN-UML party is a centrist European 
social-democratic style political party, which openly 
supports constitutional monarchy and multiparty democracy. 
There are certainly factions within the CPN-UML who have some 
sympathy for a Maoist-style single-party state system. 
However, most of the philosophically hard-core communists 
(communism through armed revolution-types) abandoned the 
party at some point after Madan Bhandari's multiparty 
democracy position became ascendant at the Party's Fifth 
National Congress in 1993. 
 
3. (C) During the Fifth Congress, three main philosophical 
schools came to the fore.  The first bloc (associated with 
party General Secretary Madan Bhandari), advocated a 
multiparty people's republic achieved through peaceful 
parliamentary revolution, and emphasized the supremacy of the 
constitution, a competitive party system and a mixed economy 
(including some compensated redistribution of land).  This 
platform was overwhelmingly supported at the party's Fifth 
Congress in 1993.  In other words, this bloc, which now 
controls the direction of the party (through such leaders as 
M.K. Nepal, Deputy Prime Minister Adhikari and Jhala Nath 
Khanal), is essentially a European social democratic-style 
party. Recently, Jhala Nath Khanal told PolOff that many in 
this bloc want to move the party further in the 
social-democrat direction, including the idea of abandoning 
the "communist" moniker. 
 
4. (C) The second philosophical school was strongly supported 
by C.P. Mainali and advocated a new people's republic arrived 
at through a violent revolution made by a united front of 
leftists and nationalists.  Essentially, the revolution would 
come about when the time was ripe to overthrow the "bourgeois 
democracy."  This bloc advocated a multiparty cooperative 
system, proportional representation, a state regulated 
economy with uncompensated land redistribution and, 
significantly, a ban on reactionary elements. (Mainali became 
a minority leader within the party after the 1993 Congress, 
and eventually split the ML from the CPN-UML in 1998.  When 
the ML and CPN-UML rejoined in 2002, Mainali remained outside 
the party.) 
 
5. (C) The third philosophical school advocated a one-party 
state arrived at through armed revolution.  A new 
constitution would be developed through a constituent 
assembly and other parties would be banned.  The economy 
would be state controlled, land would be redistributed, and 
all trade and industry would be nationalized.  When it became 
clear that Bhandari's platform was in the majority, the 
supporters of this fringe school abandoned CPN-UML.  Many 
ultimately joined the CPN-Maoists. 
 
6. (C) (Ref A, Section J) In terms of its perspective on 
international relations, the CPN-UML party has evolved 
significantly from 1991. All of Nepal's political parties are 
critical of the 1950 Friendship Treaty with India, because in 
Nepal, criticizing India legitimizes the one criticizing. 
CPN-UML was especially critical of the Friendship Treaty 
before the 1994-95 CPN-UML-led government came into power. 
However, once in power, the CPN-UML government did not 
"cancel" the treaty, and since then the party has become even 
more moderate towards India.  That same CPN-UML government 
opened the discussions with India on the Mahakali watershed; 
discussions that eventually led to the Mahakali Treaty 
(concluded by PM Koirala).  The Mahakali Treaty is seen by 
most Nepalis as much more insulting and unfair than the 1950 
Friendship Treaty.  No legitimate party in Nepal will build a 
relationship with China or North Korea at the expense of 
India; no party would risk trying such a move even if they 
wanted to do so. 
 
================================= 
TODAY'S DEMOGRAPHICS, GRASS ROOTS 
================================= 
7. (C) (Ref A, Section A) Although determining accurate 
political demographics in a country beset by a violent 
insurgency is at best difficult, CPN-UML appears to be 
Nepal's most popular party.  CPN-UML itself claims 73,220 
organized members and 400,000 general members, but the basis 
of these figures is unclear.  It is impossible at this time 
to assess rural/urban or industrial/agricultural breakdowns 
for support for particular political parties.  CPN-UML, like 
most Nepali political parties, has associated social and 
labor groups, such as the All Nepal National Free Students 
Union, All Nepal Peasant's Association, All Nepal Women's 
Association and the General Federation of Nepalese Trade 
Unions.  More telling perhaps, a recent national survey 
funded by NDI/USAID and carried out by Greenberg and 
Associates (in conjunction with a local polling firm) asked a 
series of political questions, and the responses generally 
indicated broad support for the CPN-UML.  CPN-UML rated the 
best of the major parties, followed at second by the Nepali 
Congress Party (Koirala faction) when the statements, "Can 
Fix Nepal's Problems" and "Cares About People Like Me" were 
posited.  In the same survey, CPN-UML's General Secretary 
Madhav Kumar Nepal was given the highest rating of the major 
political leaders in Nepal, and CPN-UML was given the best 
rating among the parties.  Based on past election performance 
and considering present data, such as it is, unless the 
Nepali Congress (Koirala) and Nepal Congress (Democratic) 
rejoin forces, CPN-UML is probably in a position to win a 
majority in any future national elections. 
 
8. (C) (Ref A, Section B) Common wisdom in Nepal indicates 
that the CPN-UML is the best-organized political party in the 
country, despite the corrosive impact of the insurgency on 
the ability of all of the political parties to organize. In 
most villages, it is impossible for political party activists 
to operate openly; thus, many are in hiding or have fled.  Of 
Nepal's legitimate political parties, only CPN-UML activists 
have been able to exist openly in a few limited areas. 
However, anecdotal evidence suggests that these party cadres 
are not allowed to do much more than simply exist openly, but 
quietly.  Deputy Prime Minister Adhikari (CPN-UML Standing 
Committee Member) stated as much to the Ambassador on July 
26.  Adhikari further noted his relief that the CPN-UML 
joining the coalition government did not result in widespread 
slaughter by Maoists of the few openly operating rural party 
activists (as he had feared). 
 
================= 
CPN-UML WHO'S WHO 
================= 
 
9. (C) (Ref A, Section C) As with all of the political 
parties in Nepal, the senior leaders of CPN-UML all can show 
"scars" from the democracy movement, usually in the form of 
jail time during the 1970's and 1980's.  CPN-UML's main 
leaders of national stature include: 
 
-- Madhav Kumar Nepal (b. 1953, Rautahat) was elected party 
General Secretary for the third time in February 2002.  Nepal 
is from Rautahat District.  M.K. Nepal joined Nepal's 
Communist Party in 1969 and was imprisoned between 1975 to 
1977 for pro-democracy activities. 
 
-- Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli  (b. 1952, Terathum) is known as 
a strong grassroots organizer.  Oli joined Nepal's Communist 
Party in 1969 and in the 1970's led the "Jhapa Peasants 
Movement," which included a campaign with the Mainali 
brothers to attack and kill landlords.  Oli was imprisoned 
for murder in 1973, but escaped in 1987 and went into hiding. 
 Oli is now firmly aligned with M.K. Nepal's platform of 
supporting multi-party democracy and constitutional monarchy. 
 
-- Jhala Nath Khanal (b. 1950, Ilam) is a political 
intellectual from Ilam in eastern Nepal and served as General 
Secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal from 1982-1989. 
 
SIPDIS 
Khanal has frequently played mediator between M.K. Nepal's 
faction and Bam Dev Gautam/C.P. Mainali's more radical 
faction of the party, although he himself is clearly a 
believer in the former. 
 
-- Bharat Mohan Adhikari (b. 1936, Mahottari) is Deputy Prime 
Minister and Finance Minister, and a strong ally of M.K. 
Nepal. 
 
-- Bam Dev Gautam (b. 1948, Pyuthan) was General Secretary of 
the Communist Party of Nepal - Marxist Leninist (ML) from 
1998 to 2002.  Prior to the CPN-UML and CPN-ML split in 1998, 
he was one of the most influential party leaders, having been 
underground in Nepal for 22 years.  While he remained with 
the UML party when it rejoined in 2002, Gautam favors a more 
radical communist position than that of M.K. Nepal. 
 
-- Amrit Kumar Bohara (b. 1949, Sindhupalchowk), with only a 
secondary level of education, is the central committee member 
left in charge whenever General Secretary Nepal is out of the 
country.  Bohara was a member of the All Nepal Peasants' 
Association in the 1970s, and as a result was in hiding from 
an arrest warrant by the government for a number of years. 
 
-- Sahana Pradhan (b. 1932, Kathmandu), wife of the Communist 
Party of Nepal founder Pushpa Lal Shrestha is a major player 
in her own right.  Jailed during the Panchayat period, 
Pradhan was the President of the United Left from 1989-90 and 
most recently served as President of the Marxist Leninist 
Party (ML).  Pradhan is currently a member of the CPN-UML 
Standing Committee. 
-- Rajendra Rai is the President of the All Nepal National 
Free Students Union (UML), the student wing of the party. 
Rai was kidnapped for several days but subsequently released 
by the Maoists in Bhijpur.  Rai speaks very poor English, and 
therefore, although a major CPN-UML student leader, is 
unlikely to rise quickly within the party. 
 
============================================ 
TODAY'S PARTY - OPERATIONS AND RELATIONSHIPS 
============================================ 
 
10. (C) (Ref A, Section D) CPN-UML was traditionally a very 
centralized party, particularly when underground during the 
movement for democracy in the 1980's and 1990's.  There is 
increasing competition among senior party members for control 
of key positions within the party and the addition of new 
cadres and activists to the central party organs (there are 
presently 43 Central Working Committee members) has increased 
the competition for power within the party.  According to the 
party's constitution, participants in a party 
congress/conference elect committee members, who in turn 
select the top leaders. 
 
11. (C) In regular party decision-making, General Secretary 
Nepal tends to lead the party by building consensus for 
decisions among the party cadre.  However, there is little 
doubt that the party leadership would take a decision without 
general consent if they believed it critical for the party. 
For example, before joining the present four-party coalition 
(an extremely politically sensitive move for the CPN-UML), 
Nepal led a series of intra-party meetings to build support 
for abandoning the "anti-regression" protests.  Although it 
appeared there was sufficient support in the party to join 
the government, there was never a vote within the party; the 
party simply joined the coalition. 
 
12. (C) (Ref A, Section E, F) The Palace and CPN-UML 
leadership are mutually suspicious, and Nepal has told us 
that he is wary of the King's desired role; Nepal believes 
the King needs to be a 21st century monarch and be prepared 
to lose some power to the parties.  Much of the CPN-UML 
openly supports constitutional monarchy and multiparty 
democracy, but there are those factions within CPN-UML who 
would be happy to form a republic (led by the likes of 
Gautam), and the party's roots are, clearly, anti-feudal and 
anti-monarchical.  After PM Thapa resigned, the King asked 
the parties to select a consensus candidate for Prime 
Minister.  The parties chose M.K. Nepal, and the King 
rejected the decision -- the King loses no love for Nepal. 
(NOTE:  However, it should be noted that G.P. Koirala only 
supported Nepal for the post because he knew the King would 
never accept Nepal, a fact of which Nepal is aware.  END 
NOTE.) 
 
13. (C) Relations between Nepal and Deuba are reasonably 
cordial, and Nepal's relationship with Koirala is tense but 
professional.  All three are competitors, and therefore at 
odds for control of the government.  Deuba has described 
Nepal as the 800-pound gorilla within the four-party 
coalition because of the influence and size of the CPN-UML 
party.  Koirala believes Nepal abandoned "his" 
anti-regression movement to join the coalition government. 
 
14. (C) (Ref A, Section G) It is commonly assumed that, 
because M.K. Nepal and his CPN-UML party are closest to the 
Maoists on the political spectrum of any of the legitimate 
political parties, relations with the Maoists and between 
Prachanda and M.K Nepal are cordial.  In fact, CPN-UML 
members are probably the most pragmatic politicians in Nepal, 
in that they know should the Maoists come into power, they 
would be the first targets of any political purges. 
 
15. (C) (Ref A, Section H) The Maoists meet with anyone they 
can IF they think it is in their interest to do so; UML is 
not an exception.  All of the parties have at some point 
pursued talks with the Maoists, including CPN-UML.  We have 
no evididence that the CPN-UML is having back-channel talks 
with the Maoists to cut a separate deal for themselves.  M.K. 
Nepal told the Ambassador that the CPN-UML party is committed 
to the coalition government.  It would be a mistake to assume 
that the UML is the closest to agreeing to Maoist demands. 
The Maoists want a one-party state, a situation that would 
provide no room for the existence of UML or any other 
political party. 
 
16. (C) (Ref A, Section I) It is true that, in a purely 
prurient sense, UML does have the most to gain from 
successful peace negotiations if they lead to free and fair 
multiparty elections, as UML would likely win a majority in 
Parliamentary elections.  The two factions of the Nepali 
Congress Party (Nepali Congress and Nepali 
Congress-Democratic) are UML's main challengers.  Should they 
reunite, it is unclear whether NC or UML would win a majority 
in a parliamentary election. 
MORIARTY