US embassy cable - 04QUITO2334

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002334 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, EC 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR'S INDIGENOUS: QUIET BUT CONFIDENT 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Battered by its early association with an 
unpopular government it helped install, bruised by open 
internal divisions, and hurt by a humiliatingly low turnout 
in fizzled national protests in June, Ecuadorian indigenous 
leaders might be expected to have low electoral expectations 
for upcoming municipal elections.  In fact, some indigenous 
leaders defiantly claim the movement remains united and 
strengthened by its travails, and warns that they will fight 
against the Gutierrez government,s liberal economic 
orthodoxy and an FTA with the U.S.  Indigenous leaders also 
warn they could yet be driven to "extremes" if conditions 
worsen.  Our view is the indigenous movement, as the only 
force with proven capability to mobilize, remains vitally 
relevant to political stability in Ecuador and should not be 
counted out. End Summary. 
 
In weakness, strength 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (U) On August 17, PolCouns and PolOff met former FM Nina 
Pacari, whose indigenous party, Pachakutik, broke its 
alliance with President Gutierrez and left positions in his 
government a year ago.  Pacari insisted that despite poor 
turnout during recent national protests and contrary to the 
opinion of many political analysts here, the break with the 
government and recent open divisions over whether to protest 
the Gutierrez government have not seriously damaged the 
indigenous movement.  Instead, she believes the indigenous 
movement emerged strengthened and "consolidated" after 
Amazonian indigenous leaders were discredited and rejected by 
their base for supporting Gutierrez.  Many of those leaders 
have now been replaced, according to Pacari.  Pacari did 
acknowledge that the movement learned a costly lesson by 
participating in Gutierrez' government: that without 
controlling the Presidency itself, the movement could not 
achieve its goals. 
 
3.  (U) Pachakutik,s national coordinator, Guilberto 
Talahua, similarly claimed the indigenous movement is growing 
stronger, especially at the local levels.   He agrees that 
their political bases are consolidated and stated that they 
haven't lost their credibility.  Pacari said that the media 
wrongly assume the weakness of the movement.  Instead, she 
believed the indigenous movement suffers from an "image" 
problem.  Regarding the fizzled attempt at mobilization in 
June, she said that while some of the national leaders 
didn,t support it, the leaders at the lower levels reacted 
and rejected pro-Gutierrez indigenous leaders. 
 
From Partners to Kingmakers 
---------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Pacari was very critical of Gutierrez saying 
Gutierrez had committed worse offenses than former (corrupt) 
President Bucaram.  However, the movement is not interested 
in getting rid of Gutierrez unless more "extreme" conditions 
arise.   She said the Social Christian Party (PSC) is waiting 
for an opportune moment to get rid of Gutierrez and had 
sought to enlist the help of the indigenous movement; 
however, the indigenous are not interested in serving PSC 
interests.  She said that by getting rid of Presidents 
Bucaram and Mahuad through protest the movement hat matured 
and now realizes "change for the sake of change" is not worth 
it unless there is someone better who can step in and respond 
to the historic moment.  Today, she said, conditions are not 
right for an indigenous mobilization to oust the President. 
However, she warned, Gutierrez, "divide and rule" approach 
and neo-liberal policies could conceivably drive the country 
to just the "extremes" that could provoke popular reaction. 
 
5.  (SBU) Minister of Government Raul Baca, told the 
Ambassador on August 24 that despite the indigenous 
movement's substantive differences with GOE policy, he 
maintains an open door for dialogue with the indigenous.  The 
GOE is very pleased that the indigenous movement has chosen 
to participate within the democratic electoral process 
despite its bitter exit from the Gutierrez government a year 
ago. 
 
US Role Criticized 
------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) Reacting to public pronouncements by the 
Ambassador, Pacari criticized the US distinction between 
supporting the institutions of democracy versus President 
Gutierrez personally, saying that the two are inextricable. 
She believed the US was acting like an "big brother" telling 
Ecuador what form of democracy was best.  She criticized 
Gutierrez for being "subservient" to the US on issues such as 
the FTA and said he would not fight for conditions favorable 
to Ecuador.  Pacari believes that Ecuador is not ready for a 
FTA but claimed some personal credit for having led the 
indigenous movement from outright rejection of free trade to 
support for a ten-year moratorium to allow Ecuador to prepare 
for any FTA with any country. 
 
No Worries About Elections 
--------------------------- 
 
6.  (U) Pacari said the indigenous movement is now focused on 
long-term goals and not worried about partisan electoral 
results. Pachackutik would participate in upcoming elections 
but were not suffering any "anguish" over the results. She 
also said they would focus on working at the local level. 
Talahua stated publicly that there has been and will be no 
rapprochement with anyone in the current Government. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (SBU) While the indigenous movement may not be as united 
as they were, their potential must not be discounted or 
underestimated.  While Gutierrez has proven skillful at 
sowing division, the indigenous leaders are regrouping and in 
our view, retain the potential for civil disturbance if 
provoked.  That said, Pacari,s complacency about the 
upcoming municipal elections probably indicates confidence 
that the indigenous will retain or extend its representation 
in town halls where the indigenous are concentrated. 
Regardless, economic and political conditions in Ecuador have 
clearly not reached the "extremes" required to stir a 
slumbering indigenous movement. 
KENNEY