US embassy cable - 04KATHMANDU1679

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001679 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS, DS/IP/SA 
NSC FOR GREEN/DORMANDY 
LONDON FOR POL-BELL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2014 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, ASEC, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: VIRTUAL BLOCKADE STILL ON; INDUSTRIES REMAIN 
CLOSED; MAOIST VIOLENCE CONTINUES; UK ENVOY'S VIEWS 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty, Reasons 1.4 (b/d) 
 
 SUMMARY 
--------- 
 
1. (C) Over the weekend, Maoist violence continued around the 
country, but Kathmandu Valley remained relatively calm.  Late 
August 21, the Maoists attacked government offices in Jumla, 
destroying several governmental buildings.  Also on August 21 
suspected Maoists shot an assistant police sub-inspector 
about four kms north of the capital and in the same area on 
August 23 killed a civilian.  Traffic in and out of the 
Valley is still below normal.  Major industries remain shut, 
despite government assurances of security protection and 
appeals to reopen. 
 
MAOISTS ATTACK IN JUMLA 
----------------------- 
 
2. (C)  On August 21, Maoists attacked Khalanga, a mountain 
town that is the headquarters of the Jumla district; the 
attack lasted from about 11:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m.  While one 
group of Maoists fired on the military base, other groups 
that had infiltrated the town torched the police station, the 
jail, the district court, the land revenue office, and the 
district office, and looted two civilian homes.  RNA sources 
report that most of the government buildings were empty. 
Between one and four Maoists and one RNA soldier were 
reported killed.  Six prisoners fled during the attack, 
although police sources report that three have returned.  The 
Maoists took some policemen and a land revenue officer 
hostage.  Police sources also said that they captured some 
old rifles and shotguns (not M-16s or INSASes). 
 
THE VIRTUAL BLOCKADE 
-------------------- 
 
3. (C)  Traffic movement in and out of Kathmandu Valley has 
not improved, even though the press reported that it had 
picked up some over the weekend.  As of 2:00 p.m. Monday 
traffic was less than it had been on Friday on two of the 
three major arteries and the total number of trucks and buses 
going in and out of Kathmandu Valley was significantly less 
today than it had been on Friday.  Another notable change 
since Friday was on the road going East to Bhaktapur and 
continuing north to Thatopani; according to police sources, 
there were no buses or trucks on the road today.  As of 2:00 
p.m. Monday, on the west and south Prithvi-Tribhuwan Highway 
a total of 543 vehicles (90 buses, 77 mini-trucks, 204 light 
vehicles, and 172 motorbikes) had traveled.  On the road 
north to and from Nuwakot, a total of 187 vehicles (15 buses, 
2 mini-trucks, 81 light vehicles, and 89 motorbikes) had 
traveled.  The drop comes despite repeated government offers 
to provide escorts, RNA assurances, and the press printing 
photographs of RNA escorting convoys and providing aerial 
surveillance.  There are still no reports of any violence or 
physical barriers on the way to or from Kathmandu Valley.  On 
August 23 afternoon, Emboffs traveled just beyond the edge of 
the Kathmandu Valley and confirmed traffic was light.  They 
did not observe any overt Maoist roadblocks or other activity 
on the Prithvi-Tribhuwan highway.  They saw a mix of civilian 
and armed police forces observing traffic. 
 
SHOOTINGS IN KATHMANDU VALLEY 
--------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) There have been two shooting incidents in the same 
area about four kms north of the capital over the last two 
days.  On the morning of August 21, an Assistant Police 
sub-inspector died while undergoing treatment after being 
shot.  A civilian was killed in his home the morning on 
August 23.  Police suspect Maoists are the perpetrators 
because of the weapon used and the assassination-style of the 
shootings.  RSO is developing more information regarding the 
motives for the shootings. 
 
 
INDUSTRY SHUTDOWN AND OTHER ACTIVITIES 
-------------------------------------- 
5. (SBU)  The Maoist-threatened industries remain closed. 
Government spokesman Minister of Information and 
Communications Dr. Mohammad Mohsin told the press August 21 
that in its meeting the day before, the Cabinet had decided 
to make public the whereabouts of the detained Maoists within 
a month.  This would meet one of the Maoists' primary demands 
made of the industries.  The companies told the press that 
they hoped that the government's statement would have a 
positive impact and that an understanding could be reached 
that would allow them to reopen.  The morning of August 22, 
people involved in industry, trade, tourism and hotels took 
part in a rally organized by the Federation of Nepalese 
Chamber of Commerce and Industries (FNCCI), Nepal Chamber of 
Commerce (NCC) and the Hotel Association Nepal.  The Victims 
of Maoist Violence also were out.  The Bottlers Nepal general 
Manager estimated that about 700 Coca-Cola employees 
participated and between 8,000 and 10,000 total took part in 
the rally.  The rumored general strike (or bandh) did not 
occur on August 23rd. 
 
 
UK SPECIAL ENVOY UPBEAT 
----------------------- 
 
6. (C) In an August 20 meeting with the Ambassador, UK 
Special Envoy Jeffrey James said he thought the current 
Nepali government was as good as could be hoped for - it knew 
what it had to do and was setting about it the right way. 
However, he cautioned that the government could not take too 
long before it entered talks with the Maoists.  James was 
finishing a week of consultations with various players about 
a possible peace process.  In response to the Ambassador's 
question as to why the Maoists would want to negotiate now, 
James stated that the Maoists knew that if the legitimate 
political forces were united, they would win and the trend 
was in the direction of the parties getting together.  He 
added that the Maoists knew they would have problems 
governing, in large part because of the attitude of the GOI. 
("The Indians would implement a blockade and topple a Maoist 
government within a week." (sic))  James expressed some 
concern about the role of the Palace.  He advised that the 
King should give full authority to Prime Minister Deuba along 
with clear instructions on the course ahead.  (The Ambassador 
noted that both the King and Deuba believed that the Prime 
Minister had been granted such authority over future talks.) 
James also warned that the King should tell the RNA to be 
careful.  James concluded that he thought the government had 
two to five months to act and that talk of elections was 
irrelevant at this time. 
MORIARTY