US embassy cable - 04KINSHASA1572

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001572 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2014 
TAGS: MARR, PGOV, PHUM, PREL, CG, MONUC 
SUBJECT: SERIOUS SITUATION IN EASTERN CONGO THREATENS 
REGIONAL PEACE 
 
 
Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
 1. (C)  Summary:  Inflammatory rhetoric from Rwanda, Burundi 
and the DRC, coupled with the buildup of Burundian and 
Rwandan troops on the Congolese border and discord and 
disarray within one of the major parties in the Congolese 
transition threaten the fragile peace of the Great Lakes. 
South Africa is trying to broker talks between the RCD and 
the President's group, focused on relieving internal 
Congolese pressures and drawing a blueprint for saving the 
transition.  However, in terms of deterring an outbreak of 
fighting, the Congolese are looking to the international 
community, and the U.S. in particular.  The situation is 
salvageable, but a prompt, forceful and coordinated 
diplomatic intervention -- along the lines of that which 
helped defuse the Bukavu crisis -- is urgently needed.  End 
Summary. 
 
Looking Over the Gunbarrel 
 
2. (C)  Monuc Bukavu reports at least three brigades of 
Burundian troops poised near the border crossing at Uvira, 
and has confirmed the presence of at least two battalions of 
Rwandan RDF forces co-mingling with the FAB at that same 
site. Monuc also has forwarded to us reports of additional 
RDF forces (three brigades) on barracks alert.  In response 
to the buildup the Congolese military has deployed a brigade 
to the Uvira area, although the regional military commander 
admitted privately to Monuc that he doubted that the FADRC 
forces could long oppose a determined effort to cross the 
border.  Monuc and NGO sources report a buildup of military 
elements (Hutu local defense forces and/or RDF elements) in 
and near Minova, Kalehe, Dutu and other small villages near 
the lake -- all areas known as strongholds of rebel leader 
Nkunda.  In Goma itself, three non-Banyamulenge military 
officers have been strangled to death (reportedly by Nkunda's 
men) in the last day.  Nkunda himself arrived in Goma August 
20 in what one observer called "a triumphal entry," 
accompanied by five truckloads of soldiers. 
 
Political Machinations 
 
 
3. (C)  RCD-G VP Ruberwa, who remains in Goma with a 
significant number of RCD ministers and some 
parliamentarians, reportedly has issued a call for all RCD 
members to come to Goma immediately, to take part in an 
announcement planned for this weekend.  An all-night meeting 
of RCD members at party headquarters in Kinshasa, apparently 
to "vote" on going to Goma, came as a surprise to moderates, 
who had not been informed that the meeting was to take place. 
 (Further details septel.)  A rupture in the party seems 
likely, almost certainly along ethnic lines.  The key 
question remains, however, whether Ruberwa himself will 
resign from the government and announce (with or without 
legal authority) that the RCD is no longer part of the 
transition.  We understand from RCD and government sources 
that S. African President Mbeki has summoned RCD and 
government elements for a meeting in Pretoria, to try to 
defuse tensions and salvage the transition by providing a 
blueprint for forward momentum.  Although Ruberwa himself 
remains in Goma, RCD sources say that at least two party 
hard-liners have gone to S. Africa.  The government appears 
still to be deciding who will represent them. 
 
Comment 
 
4. (C)  We appear to be facing a major threat to the 
transition government -- still our best, albeit flawed, means 
of getting to democratic elections -- as well as a resumption 
ofbroader armed conflict in the region.  The S. African 
initiative is helpful, but a broader diplomatic effort, such 
as that launched during the first Bukavu crisis, is urgently 
needed to remind all three parties to the current tense 
situation that they would face a high cost for allowing peace 
to fail. 
MEECE