US embassy cable - 04KINSHASA1565

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001565 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, CG, MONUC 
SUBJECT: NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN EASTERN CONGO COULD THREATEN 
TRANSITION 
 
 
Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.5 (B) and (D). 
 
 1. (C)  Summary:  Following the funeral service for the 180 
victims of this weekend's massacre in the refugee camp in 
Gatumbe, events in eastern Congo took a turn for the worse. 
Rebel commander Nkunda issued an inflammatory declaration 
repudiating any prior connection he might have had to the 
transition government and calling for the institution of a 
new government, and at the same time moved significant 
numbers of his troops into more heavily fortified positions. 
It is unclear how, if at all, Monuc Bukavu would respond to a 
new attack against the city.  RCD-G VP Ruberwa and the 
majority of the RCD government ministers, together with a 
significant number of parliamentarians, are gathered in Goma, 
where they met August 17 with Governor Serufuli and regional 
military commander Obed.  Ruberwa is popularly supposed to be 
on the verge of quitting the transition.  The above plays out 
against a background of increasing hostility toward the RCD, 
Tutsis in general, and Ruberwa in particular.  The situation 
is not yet irreparable, but particularly potential military 
action and the RCD developments could pose a significant 
threat to the transition.  End Summary. 
 
 
Military Movements: Nkunda Shifting Ground, FAB At The Border 
 
 
2. (C)  Monuc Bukavu sources told polcouns August 16 that 
regional military commander Mbuza Mabe was reporting that 
rebel commander Nkunda's forces had begun an advance upon 
Bukavu from three directions.  A subsequent Monuc air 
reconnaissance August 17 indicated that Nkunda had 
consolidated some forces in Hombo and near Banyakiri, and had 
further fortified these sites with what appears to be 
artillery.  During a special CIAT meeting August 18 a Monuc 
military briefer reported that Nkunda's forces had clashed 
with government troops near Miti (not far from Hombo) during 
a southward movement from Numbi, Gungu and Itombo.  SRSG 
Swing reported that Nkunda had called him yesterday to assure 
Monuc that his statement was not intended to threaten the 
government.  Meanwhile, in response to Burundian troops 
gathering at the border in southern S. Kivu near Uvira 
(following a press statement by the Burundian military 
commander that he was prepared to invade the DRC in 
retaliation for this weekend's massacre), Mabe sent a 
battalion to reinforce the Congolese side of the border.  A 
Monuc Bukavu source subsequently told poloff that they have 
confirmed the presence of two brigades of RDF elements in 
Burundi, and said that apparently these elements are planning 
to join the Burundian forces poised at the Congolese border. 
Monuc reported that they have moved some troops from Bukavu 
to Uvira with the itent of maintaining highly visible patrols 
on the Bukavu-Uvira access.  In response to a question from a 
CIAT member, Swing confirmed that Monuc still commands only 
limited resources in the region to prevent a determined 
military movement, i.e., across the border or directed 
against Bukavu.  Meanwhile, hostility in Bukavu toward Monuc 
is already mounting again, as citizens apparently believe the 
worst. 
 
 
RCD Split Deepens, Ruberwa On The Verge.... 
 
3. (C)  RCD-G VP Azarias Ruberwa, together with the majority 
of the RCD ministers and a significant number of RCD 
parliamentarians, attended the August 17 burial of the 
Gatumbe massacre victims, and then went on to Goma, where 
most remain.  (Note:  Some of the RCD leaders chose not to go 
to the funeral, fearing that it was on one level a pretext to 
lure them from Kinshasa.  Others did attend, but already have 
returned to Kinshasa, expressing disgust for the "hard 
liners" in Goma.  End Note.)  The government and the MLC 
believe that Ruberwa is preparing to leave the transition; 
this concern reportedly prompted S. African President Mbeki 
to call Ruberwa in Goma August 17 to urge him to continue 
with the peace process.  RCD sources in Kinshasa told us 
August 18 that although Ruberwa personally could leave the 
transition, he does not have the authority to take the RCD, 
as a party, out of the government, because he does not have a 
quorum of Founders' College members in Goma with him. 
(Comment:  This strikes us as a technicality which could be 
useful for the more moderate members of the RCD in the event 
that the party ruptures completely in coming days, which at 
the moment appears possible.  End Comment.)  MLC SecGen told 
PolCouns August 18 that the MLC has not yet formulated a 
policy in response to these recent developments, but rather 
is awaiting Ruberwa's press statement.  VP Bemba reportedly 
was considering calling Ruberwa to urge him to stay with the 
transition.  President Kabila, currently in Tanzania for a 
meeting on the Burundi peace process, reportedly will return 
soon to Kinshasa, perhaps as early as this evening. 
 
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Comment 
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4. (C)  Government hardliners postulate that Ruberwa is 
staging a crisis in order to force concessions on military 
integration.  We think that is far-fetched.  It seems more 
likely that Ruberwa finds himself impaled on the horns of a 
dilemma, i.e., Kigali may be (as many here believe) demanding 
that he and the RCD leave the transition and he, Ruberwa, 
cannot see a way to avoid doing so.  In some ways, Nkunda's 
declaration simplifies the Kivus dynamic, as he has now 
voluntarily placed himself outside the pale, although the 
FADRC's ability to successfully implement the so-called 
military solution remains as dubious as ever.  The key to 
keeping the transition on track, we believe, lies in keeping 
Burundi and Rwanda out of the DRC, and Ruberwa in the fold. 
Certainly public talk of invading -- on any pretext -- only 
feeds DRC fears and contributes to instability. 
MEECE