US embassy cable - 04KATHMANDU1655

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001655 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS 
NSC FOR XDORMANDY 
LONDON FOR POL-BELL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PTER, NP 
SUBJECT: NDI POLL OFFERS INSIGHT INTO IMPROVING DEMOCRACY 
IN NEPAL 
 
Classified By: (U) Classified by: Ambassador James F. Moriarty; reason 
1.4 (d) 
 
 SUMMARY 
--------- 
 
1. (C) In a public opinion poll conducted between May and 
July 2004 by the National Democratic Institute (NDI), 95 
percent of respondents believed things in Nepal were going in 
the wrong direction.  NDI,s survey reports Nepali citizens' 
perceptions of the current government, democracy, and 
possible elections and steps towards ending the insurgency. 
The numbers in NDI's survey should be viewed as trends, 
rather than as definitive, due to the number of individuals 
who refrained from responding due to fear of reprisal from 
either side.  The report offers a unique perspective on the 
perceived character of various players, both in the 
government and in the Maoist rebel leadership, while also 
showing the public,s desire for peace talks with the 
Maoists, willingness to hold elections and to push for 
change.  Above all, the survey shows the people's desire for 
peace.  We are forwarding to the Desk and INR the powerpoint 
presented and the statistical analysis.  END SUMMARY. 
 
DEMOCRACY IN NEPAL? 
------------------- 
 
2. (U) Public views on the current condition of democracy in 
Nepal seem rather bleak.  When asked to rate the state of 
democracy in Nepal on a scale of one to ten (ten meaning the 
country is fully democratic), 70 percent of respondents rated 
Nepal between zero and five -- decidedly undemocratic.  66 
percent of respondents also asserted that Nepal is generally 
worse off now than it was during the Panchayat system. 
(NOTE:  Nepal made the switch from a Panchayat system to a 
constitutional democracy in 1990.  In 2002, Prime Minister 
Deuba dismissed the Parliament.  Currently, Prime Minister 
Deuba, with the King,s endorsement, has assembled a 
coalition government. END NOTE)  The primary reasons cited by 
respondents for this deterioration are increases in both 
corruption and crime.  Maoist violence was also cited, but 
came in third with half the votes of the above reasons.  This 
negative outlook on government is not surprising in light of 
the respondents, view of political parties.  The majority of 
participants considered the four leading parties to be 
corrupt, too close to the king, and more likely to govern on 
behalf of themselves than in the interest of the people. 
Despite apparently negative views with regard to the current 
system and political parties, however, over three fourths of 
all respondents believed some form of democracy to be the 
best system of government for Nepal. 
 
ELECTIONS 
--------- 
 
3. (U) When respondents were asked whom they would vote for 
if elections were held today, interesting results emerged. 
The leading party was the Nepal Communist Party-United 
Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), followed by Nepali Congress (NC), 
Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Nepali 
Congress-Democratic (NC-D).  When asked whom they would elect 
if the Maoists were included on the ballot, the Communist 
Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoists) emerged third with only 
eight percent of the vote.  A large number of respondents 
refrained from answering either question.  In fact, when 
asked whom they would vote for if the Maoists were included 
on the ballot, the number of "Do not want to say" rose from 
30 percent to 36 percent. 
 
4. (C) Scott Kearin, the country director for NDI, said in a 
recent meeting with Ambassador Moriarty that he hopes some of 
NDI,s findings will make their way into the public domain in 
Nepal.  Kearin believes that if Maoists learn their party 
holds some public appeal, the discovery may provide the 
impetus needed for Maoist leaders to reintegrate the group 
back into the system and run as a political party in the next 
national election.  Ambassador Moriarty, however, cautioned 
that eight percent support might not be enough to attract the 
Maoists, who think they control eighty percent of the 
country, back into the political process. 
5. (C) Kearin also emphasized during the meeting that Maoists 
need to be convinced that now is the time to get back into 
the political process.  NDI suggested that one way of 
encouraging the Maoists to endorse elections would be to hold 
elections first in the districts in which Maoists are able to 
move freely, providing an environment in which Maoists feel 
they would receive a favorable outcome.  The international 
community would then have to be involved to ensure a free and 
fair election.  The Ambassador again raised concerns, saying 
that elections cannot be held until the Maoists are willing 
to lay down arms, and that the likelihood of Maoists 
accepting a minority position in a coalition government is 
doubtful, particularly based on their views of power sharing. 
 (NOTE: Interestingly, 51 percent of participants had little 
or no trust in the Maoists to establish a multi-party system 
if they came to power; 30 percent did not answer. END NOTE.) 
 
6. (U) Poll participants appear ready for elections. 
Overwhelmingly, 83 percent of those asked were in favor of 
holding elections this year.  The conditions under which 
respondents desire elections to be held are also clear.  93 
percent believed elections should be held only during a 
cease-fire.  Views regarding the conditions under which the 
Maoists would be allowed to participate in the election, 
however, were less clear -- with almost an equal split on 
whether or not Maoists should be able to participate under 
any circumstances. 
 
MAOIST INSURGENCY 
----------------- 
 
7. (U) Although the Maoists do not enjoy mass appeal, NDI's 
survey shows the group still holds some sway with the public. 
 When asked whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view 
of the Maoists, 18 percent of respondents said they held a 
favorable view.  When read a list of stated goals of the 
CPN-Maoist party, the approval rating for Maoist goals was 47 
percent (NOTE: These goals were stated as free and compulsory 
education for all, free health services, an end to caste 
discrimination, etc.  END NOTE).  21 percent of those polled 
even approved of Maoist tactics.  (NOTE: All approval ratings 
are a combination of "strongly approve" and "somewhat 
approve." END NOTE.)  Most notable was the finding that a 
total of 28 percent  would be willing to accept a Maoist 
"People's Republic."  A "People's Republic," however, was not 
defined and 26 percent did not answer this question. 
 
8. (C) While the probability of peace talks between the GON 
and the Maoists remains unclear, poll participants indicated 
almost unanimously their hope for speedy negotiations.  And 
although considerably more respondents (34 percent) said they 
trusted the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) than the Maoists (4 
percent) to protect their community, an even larger 
percentage (42 percent) said they trusted neither the RNA nor 
the Maoists -) further underlining the need for negotiated 
rather than military solutions. 
 
9. (U) If talks occur, another variable to address is exactly 
whom to involve in the negotiation process.  While there 
remains an element of disagreement, overall poll participants 
were receptive to the idea of bringing in an international 
delegation to moderate talks.  Among delegations mentioned, 
the United Nations was thought to be the most appropriate, 
followed by India and then the United States.  (NOTE:  When 
asked whether the United States was playing a positive or 
negative role in helping to resolve the Maoist conflict, 25 
percent believed the US to be playing a positive role, 28 
percent negative and 44 percent did not answer.  END NOTE) 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
10. (C) NDI,s poll offers a window into the minds of 
citizens across Nepal.  Results show that despite 
dissatisfaction with the current situation and the conduct of 
many of the major players (including the King), the majority 
of participants believe that negotiations, a cease-fire and 
elections -- after the Maoists have laid down their weapons 
-- could reinstate democracy and improve the situation in 
Nepal. 
11. (C) NDI is using its study to reach out to the parties to 
help them craft their party messages.  NDI has met with 
members of at least five political parties (CPN-UML, NC, 
Nepal Sadbhawana, RPP, and NC-D) to share the results of 
their survey.  NDI Country Director Kearin mentioned that top 
aides of NC asked for an additional meeting to review the 
report probably because the poll showed that following the 
split between NC and NC-D, both parties were individually 
weaker than CPN-UML (the combination of those expressing 
preference for NC and NC-D is roughly equivalent to the 
poll's most popular party, CPN-UML).  This finding may 
provide incentive for the two Nepali Congress factions to try 
and mend fences. 
 
12. (C) While the NDI study is very useful, a few caveats 
should be considered. Only 62 of the 75 districts were 
included in the sample *- districts where the security 
situation remains too difficult were not incorporated into 
the research.  Also, due to the sensitivity of many of the 
questions and the general atmosphere of fear in Nepal, the 
surveyors assume that 23 percent of those questioned had 
reservations about answering questions, while 13 percent most 
likely did not express their true opinions.  Still with 3000 
people interviewed, the poll does represent an interesting 
perspective on current popular opinion in Nepal. 
MORIARTY