US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2629

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002629 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, VE, OAS 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: NO CLOSER TO ACCEPTANCE OF GOV VICTORY 
BY OPPOSITION 
 
REF: CARACAS 2624 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reason 
1.4(d) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (U) In a press conference August 16, former U.S. President 
Jimmy Carter and Organization of American States (OAS) 
Secretary General Cesar Gaviria announced that the results of 
 
SIPDIS 
their quick count coincide with the results announced by the 
National Electoral Council (CNE) giving President Chavez a 
victory in the referendum.  Coordinadora Democratica leader 
Alberto Quiros Corradi acknowledged the pronouncements by the 
Carter Center and OAS, but questioned the discrepancy between 
Sumate's exit polls and the quick counts.  Quiros insisted on 
an audit of the voters' paper receipts.  National Electoral 
Council (CNE) Director Jorge Rodriguez denied opposition 
claims of tampering with the voting machine software and 
recalled that opposition representatives were present at all 
stages of the software process.  Representatives of Sumate 
said they had "serious doubts" that the will of the 
Venezuelan had been respected in the referendum at a press 
conference at 4:15 p.m.  Although the morning was quiet in 
Caracas, there were small demonstrations in the afternoon. 
At one, eight people were reportedly injured by gunfire, 
including opposition congressman Alvarado, and one woman was 
killed.  End Summary. 
 
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Carter Center and OAS Confirm CNE Results 
----------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) In a press conference August 16, former U.S. President 
Jimmy Carter and Organization of American States (OAS) 
Secretary General Cesar Gaviria announced that the results of 
 
SIPDIS 
their quick count coincide with the results announced by the 
National Electoral Council (CNE) giving President Chavez a 
victory in the referendum.  The international observers noted 
that more than 10 million Venezuelans voted. According to 
Carter, the international observer missions worked together 
to conduct a quick count, using a methodology they have used 
in many other countries.  After auditing the data from the 
voting machines (actas) from 192 tables, their quick count 
matched almost exactly with the CNE's results.  Carter 
confirmed that he was in the totalization room at 1:00 a.m. 
with all five directors of the CNE. 
 
3. (U) Carter said Sumate also did a quick count based on the 
same voting machine data and showed 55% for "No" and 45% for 
"Si," which was very close to the Carter Center and OAS 
results.  Gaviria said that they are getting closer to the 
exact results, and there is a clear tendency in favor of 
"No."  Gaviria noted that in addition to the quick counts, 
the Venezuelan system allows for another type of control: the 
physical ballots.  Carter said the physical ballots would be 
available to be counted.  According to Gaviria, "it would be 
very difficult to manipulate the numbers."  He said he 
understood that some might doubt about the results, but that 
is different from having evidence of fraud.  So far, he said, 
there has been no evidence of fraud in the referendum. 
 
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Opposition Calls for Count of Paper Ballots 
------------------------------------------- 
 
4. (U) Coordinadora Democratica leader Alberto Quiros Corradi 
acknowledged the pronouncements by the Carter Center and OAS, 
but questioned the discrepancy between Sumate's exit polls 
and the quick counts.  According to Sumate exit polls, the 
"Si" vote had won a majority.  Quiros Corradi noted that 
there could be two explanations for the discrepancy: the 
numbers were manipulated in the transmission of the data, or 
the machine data does not reflect the physical votes in the 
ballot boxes.  Therefore, he said, the opposition is 
 
 
insisting on a count of the paper ballots.  He said at least 
180 ballot boxes selected at random should be counted and 
compared against the corresponding voting machine data (the 
actas).  He called on the international community and the 
international observers to ensure that the CNE counts the 
ballot boxes, saying that the opposition has "reasonable 
doubt."  "The only way to know the truth is to go to the 
boxes," he concluded. 
 
------------------------- 
CNE Releases More Results 
------------------------- 
 
5. (U) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez announced the "No" 
carried all but two states (Miranda and Tachira) and the 
federal district of Caracas.  Rodriguez said the overwhelming 
75 percent turnout of registered voters -- a record for 
Venezuela -- was the main reason for delays in voting lines. 
He said statistics showed the fingerprint machines were 
responsible for only short delays in the morning; six million 
fingerprints were taken for use in future elections. 
Rodriguez recognized that the voting table procedure caused 
most delays and called for it to be re-designed to 
accommodate the pace of electronic voting.  He also said the 
distribution of voting centers needs to be re-engineered to 
be more democratic and better accommodate voters in poor 
areas. 
 
6. (U) Rodriguez denied opposition claims of tampering with 
the software for the voting machines and recalled that 
opposition representatives were present at all stages of the 
software process.  He said he would welcome further audits as 
proposed by the opposition if it would lead to increased 
tranquillity and but not as a basis for building a fraud 
case.  He reminded the opposition that it was they who pushed 
for quick counts from the OAS and Carter Center and for a 
quick release of results by the CNE, something he said 
opposition leaders are now complaining about. 
 
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Sumate Expresses Doubts 
------------------------ 
 
7. (U) Representatives of Sumate said they had "serious 
doubts" the will of the Venezuelan had been respected in the 
referendum at a press conference at 4:15 p.m.  Enrique 
Palacios said Sumate had conducted exit polls in 300 voting 
centers throughout the day on August 15, resulting in a 59-41 
tendency in favor of the opposition (with 20,382 interviews). 
 Despite the statistical validity of this sample, he said, 
Sumate's quick count of tally sheets (actas) showed a 55-45 
tendency in favor of the GOV.  Citing one center in a 
pro-opposition area of Caracas with 2,734 voters, Palacios 
said their exit poll showed an 85-percent lead, but the final 
acta showed only a 53-percent lead.  Further, Palacios noted 
that 1,750 persons registered to this center had signed the 
petitions against President Hugo Chavez, but the final acta 
showed only 905 "yes" votes.  Maria Corina Machado proposed a 
statistically valid audit of all the paper receipts generated 
by the referendum.  She asked international observers to take 
immediate custody of the voter receipts to preserve their 
integrity. 
 
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Protests, Rallies and Violence 
------------------------------- 
 
8. (U) Opposition groups closed a major avenue in Caracas and 
opposition leaders are calling for rallies in several parts 
of the city, but the turnout is small.  In Plaza Altamira, 
the site of previous opposition protests, several Chavez 
supporters on motorcycles began to fire upon a crowd that had 
gathered, and at least six people were injured and one woman 
was killed.  Solidaridad Deputy Ernesto Alvarenga, a former 
Chavez supporter turned opposition leader, was wounded in the 
shooting in Altamira.  A small group of protesters are still 
demonstrating outside the hotel where international observers 
 
 
from the OAS and Carter Center are staying, and where they 
have been since this morning.  Chavez supporters have 
interrupted occasionally some of Caracas' major 
thoroughfares.  Metropolitan police directed people onto 
alternate routes. 
Shapiro 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02629 - CONFIDENTIAL