US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2624

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002624 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
NSC FOR CHRIS BARTON 
HQ USSOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, VE 
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ DECLARES REFERENDUM VICTORY - SO DOES 
OPPOSITION 
 
REF: CARACAS 2616 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles S. Shapiro 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (C) Venezuelan National Electoral Council President 
Francisco Carrasquero announced August 16 that preliminary 
results showed 58% of voters chose not to revoke President 
Chavez.  Opposition leaders rejected the result, claiming 
their exit polls showed that 59% voted in favor of 
revocation.  International observers have yet to weigh in 
officially, but Carter Center representative Francisco Diez 
told the Ambassador that the results of their quick count 
coincide with the official preliminary results.  The 
Coordinadora Democratica headquarters was attacked with tear 
gas during the night, and workers at Sumate left their 
offices temporarily for a number of hours when secret police 
(DISIP) personnel deployed near their building.  The OAS and 
Carter Center planned a press conference at 11:30 AM.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
---------------------------------- 
GOV ANNOUNCES A RESOUNDING VICTORY 
---------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) Long, slow-moving lines characterized the voting on 
Sunday.  The polls were originally set to open at 6:00 AM and 
close at 4:00 PM, but the sluggish process prompted the CNE 
to extend the closing first to 8:00 PM, and a second time 
until midnight.  Centers were required to remain open as long 
as voters were in line, and press reports indicate that votes 
were cast as late as 1:30 AM. 
 
3. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) President Francisco 
Carrasquero announced at 3:47 AM local time August 16 on 
national TV, that nearly 5 million people had voted not/not 
to revoke President Chavez from office, while nearly 3.6 
million voted to revoke.  He stated that this represented 
results from over 94% of all automated voting centers. 
Chavez appeared to a crowd of his followers at the 
Presidential palace shortly after, claiming a "clean, 
transparent and resounding victory," calling it "gift for 
Bush" that landed in the "nerve center of the White House." 
He characterized the result as "a victory that transcends the 
Venezuelan borders, and is also a victory for all Latin 
America."  He was conciliatory toward the opposition, 
inviting "our brothers, come with us to this new period of 
moving forward and reconciliation." 
 
4. (C) Chavez then thanked international observers from many 
countries (including the U.S.), as well as the OAS and the 
Carter Center, implying that they supported the result.  At 
2:00 AM on August 16, Francisco Diez of the Carter Center 
(CC) told the Ambassador that the Carter Center's quick count 
(based on printed summaries from a limited number of centers 
where observers were present) matched the official 
preliminary results announced by Carrasquero.  The CC has not 
made a public announcement.  The OAS has not yet provided 
information, publicly or privately.  Gaviria and Carter are 
supposed to give a press conference at mid-day, August 16. 
As of noon, it has not started. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Sumate Briefs on Its Numbers late August 15 
------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) At 9:00 PM on August 15, Sumate representatives 
briefed the Ambassador and CODEL Weller and then the Carter 
Center and the OAS on their projections for the referendum 
results.  According to Sumate, the opposition had won 59% of 
the vote.  Sumate reported collecting data from 20,000 people 
from over 300 centers throughout the country.  Based on their 
data, approximately 7 million people voted by 7:30 PM August 
15 and about 8.5 to 9 million people would vote by night's 
end.  Their exit polls suggested that the "Si" vote garnered 
 
 
5.2 million votes, or 1.4 million more than the minimum 
required to revoke President Chavez.  Sumate representative 
Roberto Abdul told Chairman Weller and the Ambassador that 
Sumate feared that the government would commit fraud in the 
night and release false projections by morning.  Sumate 
presented a more detailed briefing to the CC and OAS at 11:00 
PM August 15.  Sumate's initial report given to the 
Ambassador and the international observers also criticized 
the CNE for the extraordinary delays in the voting process 
caused by the insufficient number of voting centers and 
tables at each center, the unnecessary use of the 
fingerprinting machines, and the last-minute changes in 
electoral officials at various voting centers. 
 
-------------------------------mRa(quCoordina tor leader Henry Ramos Allup 
 
publicly rejected the CNE's preliminary results in favor of 
"No" announced early August 16.  Referring to data collected 
by Sumate, which showed the "Si" campaign winning, Ramos said 
that the opposition numbers were exactly opposite of those 
announced by the electoral body.  He pointed out that for the 
CNE's numbers to be right, the opposition would have 
collected fewer votes in the referendum than it did 
signatures to convoke the referendum.  He expressed 
solidarity with the opposition-affiliated CNE members Sobella 
Mejias and Ezequiel Zamora, who denounced CNE President 
Carrasquero's preliminary results.  While Ramos Allup 
denounced the CNE for committing fraud, he did not call 
opposition supporters to the streets in protest.  Instead, he 
said the opposition would fight this peacefully, 
democratically and constitutionally.  He ended his statement 
noting that the opposition had shown their data to the 
international observer missions of the OAS and Carter Center 
and hoped they would acknowledge their version of the facts. 
 
------------------------------ 
COORDINADORA OFFICE TEARGASSED 
------------------------------ 
 
7. (C) Daniel Thiman, aide to Miranda state Governor Enrique 
Mendoza, told poloff August 16 the Coordinadora's campaign 
headquarters in eastern Caracas was attacked with tear gas 
during the night.  Thiman said the gas forced the occupants 
to evacuate; he described the aftermath as "very confusing." 
He said they believe the gas was launched from a street which 
runs just below the side wall of the Coordinadora's compound. 
 Thiman said he walked for several blocks with his wife away 
from the compound and finally got his car and returned home. 
He said National Guard troops had also been spotted close to 
a nearby opposition building before midnight.  Coordinadora 
representative Carlos Figueredo Planchart told Polcouns that 
members of the political police (DISIP) had also gone to the 
offices of the organization Sumate during the night.  The 
police deployment, Figueredo said, forced Sumate to evacuate 
its offices temporarily. 
 
8. (U) President Carter will meet with Ambassadors of the 
Group of Friends countries at 1700. 
Shapiro 
 
 
NNNN 
      2004CARACA02624 - CONFIDENTIAL