US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2607

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002607 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, VE, OAS 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 13 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reason 1.4(d) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) As the campaigns for the Presidential recall 
referendum closed August 12, supporters and opponents of 
President Hugo Chavez celebrated, each claiming future 
victory.  Chavez said he would extend dialog invitations to 
opposition leaders who accepted his victory and said he would 
step down if he lost.  The National Electoral Council (CNE) 
will audit one percent of the voting machines chosen at 
random August 15 and limit observers' access to the vote 
tallying room.  Patria Para Todos (PPT) Secretary General 
Jose Albornoz, who supports Chavez, told poloff August 13 
that Chavez would win the referendum by 10 percentage points. 
Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza and Primero Justica 
President and assemblyman Julio Borges told the Ambassador 
they were confident the "Si" would win the referendum.  With 
the referendum just a couple of days away, Chavez criticized 
the U.S. August 12, alleging a plot against him/Venezuela. He 
told reporters that the battle was between the Bush 
administration and the Venezuelan people.  End Summary. 
 
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Campaigns Close 
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2. (U) Hundreds of thousands of opponents of President Hugo 
Chavez marched down Caracas highways to attend the opposition 
Coordinadora Democratica campaign closing August 12.  Smaller 
opposition gatherings occurred in four other states outside 
the capital.  Chavez supporters also gathered to celebrate 
the end of the "No" campaign throughout Venezuela on August 
12.  In Caracas, President Hugo Chavez told supporters during 
his campaign closing remarks that he was confident he would 
win.  He stated that on August 16, he would begin discussions 
with opposition leaders who were willing to acknowledge his 
victory.  Vice-president Jose Vincente Rangel also told 
reporters that a dialog was possible beginning August 16 but 
noted that a dialog did not mean an agreement.  Rangel made 
clear that while he was willing to listen to the opposition 
leaders' concerns, the dialog would not include any 
discussions about sharing power.  President Chavez swore 
during his closing remarks that if he were to somehow lose 
the referendum, he would hand over the reins to VP Rangel, 
take a small vacation, and return to work after he was 
elected in the presidential election that would occur 30 days 
later. 
 
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Private Media Faces Inspections 
-------------------------------- 
 
3. (U)  The National Telecommunications Commission (Conatel) 
inspected four private television without warning August 13. 
Minister of Information Jesse Chacon, speaking from 
Miraflores Palace to reporters as the inspections were 
concluding, claimed the "routine and legal" inspections were 
intended to confirm satellite and microwave transmission 
frequencies because of the high demand for such frequencies 
expected during election weekend.  When the inspections 
began, the Conatel personnel told reporters they were there 
only on a routine inspection.  CNE director told Globovision 
that "only a fool (pendejo)" would believe that the 
inspections were not related to the referendum. 
 
4.  (U) Chacon said Conatel would monitor media transmissions 
during the election to ensure they stayed within their 
assigned frequencies.  Globovision director Alberto Federico 
Ravell said the inspections were unusual coming only 48 hours 
before the referendum.  Ravell also said it was a surprise 
for the visits to be unannounced since the media stations 
have been in contact with Conatel all week.  The inspections 
were suspended, and the officials left abruptly without 
executing the proper legal paperwork. 
 
 
----------------------------------- 
Information Minister Releases Polls 
----------------------------------- 
 
5. (U) Minister of Information Jesse Chacon told reporters 
August 13 that two polls showed Chavez winning the 
referendum.  Chacon said a poll from McDonough firm in 
Washington showed an eight percent lead.  A Seijas poll, he 
added, also gave the GoV reasons for celebration.  Chacon 
noted it is against electoral law after the end of the 
campaign to release poll data, a detail he skirted with a 
grin by not giving exact figures. 
 
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CNE Action 
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6. (U) The National Electoral Council (CNE) clarified the 
rules for the post-referendum audit, the role of the armed 
force's "Plan Republica", and the role of observers in the 
vote tallying room on August 12.  The CNE agreed that a CNE 
auditing commission would audit 1% of the voting machines, to 
be chosen at random at 1 p.m. on August 15.  After an Army 
General reportedly announced that military personnel would 
watch closely how people voted August 12, CNE vice-president 
Ezequiel Zamora reminded reporters the military working "Plan 
Republica" was not in charge of directing the voting process 
for the referendum and asked General Julio Quintero Viloria 
to distribute the electronic voting machines that were still 
located on military bases to legitimate voting centers. 
Zamora said "Plan Republica" was subject to the CNE's rules 
and decisions and could not interfere in the voting process. 
Zamora said "the CNE has the ultimate authority in electoral 
material" and "they (Plan Republica) should maintain 
sufficient distance from the voting machines". 
 
7. (C) CNE director Oscar Battaglini said the role of the 
referendum observers had its limits, and the observers would 
not be allowed into the rooms where the votes were tallied 
during a meeting with 150 international observers on August 
12. Organization of American States (OAS) mission leader 
Edgardo Ries told poloff August 10 the OAS had insisted in 
their written agreement on access to the totalization room, 
but the CNE demurred.  Ries changed the text of the agreement 
to include access to "the totalization process."  Ries said 
he expected to have observers in or around the totalization 
room when necessary. 
 
8. (U) CNE President Francisco Carrasquero took time from his 
referendum work August 13 to participate in the presentation 
of an academic book he had written.  Carrasquero told 
reporters he would address the nation (in "cadena") on 
Saturday night to assure Venezuelans the vote would take 
place without incident.  Speaking to reporters afterwards, 
Carrasquero said that if the vote is close, results may not 
be ready to announce on August 15 and speculated that voting 
may continue until after midnight. 
 
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Chavez Supporter Predicts Victory 
---------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) Patria Para Todos (PPT) Secretary General Jose 
Albornoz told poloff August 13 that Chavez would win the 
referendum by 10 percentage points.  Albornoz said the 
opposition had committed several errors, especially on the 
regional level, during the campaign, and had changed focus 
three times.  He said the first priority for the government 
would be to build "bridges of money" ("puentes de plata") to 
the defeated opposition.  Albornoz hopes that AD would come 
to an understanding with the GoV to re-energize the National 
Assembly. 
 
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Pollster's Viewpoint 
-------------------- 
 
10. (C) Consultant and pollster Alfredo Keller told poloff he 
was concerned about the high level of undecided voters that 
were showing up so close to voting day on August 12.  While 
he admitted that most of the undecided voters favor the 
opposition, he was not sure that they would turn out to vote. 
 He also pointed out that another way people hid their votes, 
in addition to saying they are undecided, is to lie 
altogether about their preferences.  Keller was sanguine 
about the opposition's prospects in Zulia and Carabobo 
States, where there is only a nine percent difference between 
the opposition and government. 
 
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Opposition Exudes Confidence 
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11. (C) The Ambassador had lunch with Enrique Mendoza, 
Alberto Quiros Corradi, Enrique Naime, Humberto Calderon 
Berti, Hiram Gaviria, Francisco Diez, Rabbi Pynchas Brener 
and various ambassadors August 13.  The purpose of the 
Coordinadora Democratica event was to give the ambassadors an 
opportunity to talk to Mendoza.  All opposition attendees 
were pleased with the campaign march August 12, saying that 
between 660,000 and 1 million people attended making it the 
largest march ever, even larger than April 11.  Mendoza cited 
polls and tracking data on the rise at the expense of the 
"No" vote.  Mendoza also asserted the vote is now 45.2% for 
"Si" and 42% for "No" with the rest undecided. 
 
12. (C)  Primero Justica (PJ) President and Deputy Julio 
Borges told the Ambassador August 13 he was confident Chavez 
would be recalled.  Borges was concerned, however, that there 
was no understanding between the government and the 
opposition in the event there are technical difficulties or 
violence breaks out on August 15, which Borges feared was a 
possibility.  The lack of dialog between the Chavez 
supporters and opposition leaders, Borges said, made 
Venezuelans more dependent on former President Jimmy Carter 
and the OAS to mediate and do so quickly if problems arise. 
Borges also said he was surprised by how close the polls say 
the votes are because it is not a reflection of what Primero 
Justicia has observed during their extensive campaigns 
throughout the country where they saw an overwhelming "Si" 
majority.  Borges said that a higher voter turnout would 
favor Chavez and increase the risk of a technical system 
failure or violence.  He noted that regardless of who wins 
the referendum, the country must be reunited, which means the 
winner must acknowledge the right of the losing side to exist 
and begin discussions. 
 
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Chavez Criticizes the U.S. 
-------------------------- 
 
13. (U) With the referendum just a couple of days away, 
Chavez criticized the U.S., its plot against him/Venezuela, 
and told reporters at a Miraflores Palace press conference on 
August 12 that the battle was between the Bush administration 
and the Venezuelan people. Chavez again accused the Bush 
administration of financing the opposition and intervening in 
Venezuela.  Chavez criticized Secretary Powell saying that 
Powell had no right to lay conditions for the recognition of 
the results of the referendum.  Chavez told his audience 
during the 4 hour press conference, "We do not expect much 
from Washington, and it doesn't really matter just to us, but 
rather the whole world, because that government (U.S.) has 
become the number one enemy of the world, number one." 
Shapiro 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02607 - CONFIDENTIAL