US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA761

C O N F I D E N T I A L  BRATISLAVA 000761 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, LO 
SUBJECT: HZDS AND MECIAR: CAN'T LIVE WITHOUT HIM? 
 
 
Classified By: CDA Scott N. Thayer for reason 1.4(b). 
 
1. (C) Summary. When former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar 
lost the presidential election in April, internal criticism 
by other members of his Movement for a Democratic Slovakia 
(HZDS--see footnote) came out into the open.  Analysts and 
journalists began to speculate about whether party leaders 
would challenge Meciar,s top position.  In meetings with 
poloffs, HZDS MPs Sergej Kozlik and Eduard Kolesar expressed 
different opinions about the direction of the party, but they 
both affirmed its future lies with Meciar. Rumors abound that 
the minority government, particularly the SDKU party, wishes 
to cooperate more closely with HZDS leaders other than 
Meciar.  Nonetheless, HZDS representatives said emerging new 
leaders are not popular enough to replace him.  End summary. 
 
Meciar Maintains Party Support 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (U) After former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar lost the 
presidential election in April, he refused to shake hands 
with winner Ivan Gasparovic, the speaker of parliament during 
his last government.  That spurred negative statements from 
within HZDS about Meciar's behavior and ability to lead the 
party after a second unsuccessful bid at the presidency. 
Some analysts and journalists speculated that other party 
leaders would challenge Meciar,s position as chairman, but 
HZDS quickly labeled press stories about problems within the 
party as exaggerated. 
 
3. (C) Sergej Kozlik, a veteran HZDS MP and former Deputy 
Prime Minister, denied that Meciar had lost the support of 
the party hierarchy in Bratislava or in the regions.  He told 
poloffs that a change in leadership was impossible before the 
next elections simply because voters would not accept a HZDS 
ticket without Meciar as the top candidate.  Kozlik added 
that Meciar,s staunch supporters expected such antics (as 
the handshake refusal) from him.  Though a Meciar loyalist, 
Kozlik stated that Gasparovic,s win was the best outcome for 
the country, claiming Meciar,s presidency would have been 
&disruptive.8  He expressed hope that HZDS participation in 
the European Parliament would help rehabilitate Meciar,s 
reputation and the image of the party, without the need to 
replace Meciar. 
 
New Leaders in HZDS Lack Appeal 
------------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Over the past two years, HZDS split twice over the 
direction of the party and Meciar,s leadership style.  After 
these defections, the politicians surrounding Meciar were 
less experienced and less appealing to voters.  At the last 
party congress in June 2003, party Vice-Chairman for Foreign 
Relations and current Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Viliam 
Veteska was elected leader of the party caucus.  The congress 
elected Tibor Mikus the &shadow8 prime minister.  Several 
MPs from coalition parties have told us that both are gaining 
more influence within the party and maintain good working 
relationships with coalition parties. 
 
5. (C) Even though he is one of the more visible HZDS 
politicians, Veteska ranks low in polls surveying popularity 
and credibility.  Kozlik stated that Veteska does not have 
the natural charisma to lead HZDS.  He added that Tibor 
Mikus, who openly criticized Meciar after the election, 
displays more leadership ability and has stronger potential 
to become Meciar,s rival.  As the &shadow8 prime minister, 
he reads government reports daily, while Meciar appears 
disinterested in current government and parliamentary 
activities.  This year the Speaker of the Parliament withheld 
a portion of Meciar,s annual salary due to poor attendance. 
However, Kozlik stated that at this time no politician could 
garner the needed support to successfully campaign against 
Meciar. 
 
You Can,t Live With Him, You Can,t Without Him 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
6. (C) According to Olga Gyarfasova, Senior Research Fellow 
of the Institute for Public Affairs, HZDS is in a dilemma. 
The party is irrevocably linked to Meciar's populist appeal 
and his past scandals.  Although HZDS seems to be steering 
away from nationalistic politics, Gyarfasova said, without 
Meciar HZDS would not win the five percent of the vote needed 
to enter parliament. She commented that HZDS has never 
established a solid doctrine or platform to keep or attract 
voters without Meciar. 
 
Future of the Party Lies with Meciar 
------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Political analysts such as the daily SME's Marian 
Lesko and Christian Democratic Movement's (KDH) Michal 
Dyttert have told us PM Dzurinda's Slovak Democratic and 
Christian Union (SDKU) is pursuing closer cooperation with 
 
HZDS leaders other than Meciar, with the ultimate goal of a 
SDKU-HZDS coalition after 2006 parliamentary elections. 
However, SDKU central office director Kamil Homola insisted a 
SDKU alliance with Meciar was out-of-the-question, and he did 
not foresee Meciar ceding control of his party.  He also 
pointed out different core values, such as SDKU's strident 
pro-American stance versus HZDS's isolationist, nationalist 
tradition.  Pavol Haulik of the MVK polling agency told 
emboffs that SDKU leaders had been leaning toward Meciar in 
the second round of presidential elections, but got the clear 
message that he is still unacceptable for the majority of 
Slovak voters. 
 
8. (C) HZDS MP Eduard Kolesar, a former HZDS youth leader and 
first time MP, told poloffs that the future of party still 
lies with Meciar, but also includes closer relations with 
coalition partners.  He mentioned that in Banska Bystrica, 
the regional capital of central Slovakia, the Hungarian 
Coalition Party (SMK) withdrew from its cooperation agreement 
with Robert Fico's Smer ("Direction") party and plans to work 
with HZDS in December 2005 regional elections.  He added this 
was unimaginable five years ago.  Kolesar stated that he was 
representative of those in HZDS who believed a more cordial 
relationship with the coalition was necessary, even if HZDS 
lost a section of its electorate.  He predicted that HZDS 
would continue to lose popularity, but would win between 12 
and 15 percent of the vote in 2006 parliamentary elections. 
 
9. (C) Regarding future alliances, Kozlik said &everything 
is open8 for discussion.   He envisioned HZDS as a centrist 
party that could form a government with Robert Fico,s Smer 
or with the parties on the right. He explained that a 
coalition government with Smer would require a third party, 
without which the two leaders, Meciar and Fico, would always 
be locked in discord.  On the other hand, Kolesar opposed 
entering government with Smer, stating that its leaders do 
not play by any rules.  For example, Smer most likely 
double-crossed President Schuster by pressing for the 
referendum for new elections to be called on the same day as 
the April presidential election.  After Schuster complied, 
Smer surprisingly endorsed Gasparovic for president instead. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10. (C)  Since the 2002 parliamentary elections, all attempts 
at cooperation between the largest opposition parties HZDS 
and Smer have failed, both because of ideological differences 
and personality conflicts between Meciar and Fico.  HZDS has 
voted with the coalition on a number of important domestic 
and foreign policy issues, including maintaining a military 
presence in Iraq.  Party leaders seem to see their chance to 
get back into government with the right-of-center parties, 
not with Smer.  They understand that having Meciar as party 
chairman and top candidate is both a liability and an asset. 
Certainly Meciar will head the HZDS ticket in 2006; as HZDS 
declines in popularity, he is their only hope to deliver 
votes in the next regional and national elections.  The 
question is whether he will then be willing to step aside so 
that others can make a deal for a government role. 
 
Footnote: The official name of Meciar's party is now People's 
Party - Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (LS-HZDS).  The 
"LS" was added after the now-extinct off-shoot People's Union 
(LU) formed.  For simplicity's sake we continue to use the 
acronym HZDS. 
THAYER 
 
 
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