US embassy cable - 04RIODEJANEIRO1105

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 RIO DE JANEIRO 001105 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC, WHA/PDA-LGOULD 
NSC FOR MIKE DEMPSEY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, SOCI, BR, Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: BRZAIL'S MINAS GERAIS:  PT INCUMBENT COULD 
WIN A TIGHT RACE IN BRAZIL'S THIRD CITY 
 
Refs:  (A) Rio de Janeiro 00190  (B) Rio de Janeiro 
 
00723  (C) Brasilia 01392 
 
1.  (U)  SUMMARY:  The mayoral race in the capital 
city of Minas Gerais state, Belo Horizonte, one of 
Brazil's largest cities in one of the largest 
states, is close, according to the most recent poll: 
38 percent for ex-soccer idol and State Deputy Joao 
Leite (Brazilian Socialist Party/PSB) and 31 percent 
for current mayor Fernando Pimentel (Worker's 
Party/PT).  On August 2-3, Poloff visited Belo 
Horizonte to take the pulse in the mayoral election 
in this important economic capital.  We spoke with 
both leading candidates, and others with insights in 
the city.  Despite the fact that Leite has a lead in 
the polls, many political pundits predict that 
Pimentel will successfully hold his seat.  The 
CNT/Sensus poll released August 11 show both 
President Lula's and PT Sao Paulo mayoral candidate 
Suplicy's approvals have ticked up, and this along 
with the improvement in the economy, will help 
Pimentel as well.  Nonetheless, the PT is pulling 
out all the stops for Pimentel's campaign to get the 
polls back to the June level of 41% or higher for a 
clear win of over 50 percent.  The current dip in 
Pimentel's popularity could mean, however, that the 
race will be decided by evangelicals who support 
Joao Leite.  Right now, it is too close to call. 
End Summary. 
 
THE POLLS 
--------- 
 
2.  (U)  Recent polling by Instituto EMData shows 38 
percent support for ex-soccer idol and Minas Gerais 
State Deputy Joao Leite (PSB) and 31 percent for 
current Belo Mayor Fernando Pimentel (PT), with a 
margin of error of 5 points.  Election day is 
October 3, and the race is very much in play, as 
July polls showed the two candidates even, but 
earlier numbers showed Pimentel with a substantial 
lead.  The other five candidates together do not 
reach double digits.  Despite Leite's current lead, 
political pundits in Belo Horizonte predict the 
Worker's Party candidate for re-election will be the 
winner, especially with more PT big shots weighing 
in, such as President Lula.  In addition, Pimentel 
has just hired the public relations firm of Duda 
Mendonca, who helped elect President Lula in 2002. 
It is possible, however, that these political nabobs 
have underestimated the number of evangelical voters 
who support Leite, who may help him clinch the 
election.  (Twenty-five percent of the voters are 
evangelicals and Leite has 70 percent of their 
votes.)  Leite polls particularly well among 
evangelical and working-class voters, while Pimentel 
is the favorite of the more educated and middle 
classes.  If no candidate gets more than 50 percent 
of the vote, the top two vote-getters go to a second 
round on October 31. 
 
HURDLES FOR PIMENTEL 
-------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU)  Pimentel has some hurdles to get over. 
Despite being the incumbent, he is surprisingly 
unknown to the voters.  He was elected Vice Mayor in 
2000, but shortly after, the Mayor suffered a 
stroke.  Pimentel has been Acting Mayor for three 
years, is reportedly an able administrator and "not 
as radical as some PT members."  In anticipation 
that Mayor Castro would recover, he was reportedly 
modest and did not advertise the fact that he was 
mayor, much to his detriment now that he is a 
candidate. 
 
CAMPAGN HEATS UP 
--------------- 
 
4.  (SBU)  Verbal attacks between the front runners 
have heated up the campaign in recent weeks.  The PT 
has been attempting to gain more name recognition 
for Pimentel.  At the end of July, Vice President of 
the Republic Jose Alencar Gomes da Silva (Liberal 
Party/PL) arrived in Belo Horizonte, actively 
participating in Pimentel's campaign for re- 
election, as he is for other PT/PL candidates in 70 
cities in the state.  (Alencar's name has been 
bandied about as a possible candidate for the 
governorship in 2006.)  Seven federal ministers 
representing one or the other of the federal 
coalition of parties and one federal deputy, in 
addition to Minister of the Casa Civil, Jose Dirceu, 
have also gone to Belo to reinforce their support 
for the PT candidate, much to the outspoken 
displeasure of Leite.  Leite accused Pimentel of 
using the federal machine to bolster his campaign; 
Pimentel riposted that Leite was "impolite," and 
claimed any monies used for any campaigning were 
from the party war chest and not public funds. 
President Lula was in Belo on August 6, conferring 
with Pimentel and announcing tax cuts; Pimentel 
claimed the President's announcement of tax cuts had 
nothing to do with partisan politics and everything 
to do with the importance of Belo Horizonte, but 
Leite criticized the President for "lending himself" 
to Pimentel's campaign:  "It's lamentable," Leite 
said.  Pimentel does emphasize his relationship with 
the federal government and President Lula and says 
that as a result, with his election, federal funds 
will continue to come pouring into Belo Horizonte. 
 
THE HEFT OF INCUMBENCY DISADVANTAGES LEITE 
------------------------------------------ 
 
5.  (SBU)  Although Joao Leite is currently ahead in 
the polls, he has reason to be concerned about 
maintaining that lead.  Recent polls indicate that 
the approval ratings of President Lula and state 
governor Aecio Neves are on the rise and may improve 
Pimentel's chances by association:  71 percent of 
Belo Horizonte voters approve of the governor, a 
rise of 4 points over two months ago and President 
Lula has risen from 47 percent to 52 percent in the 
same time frame, according to the EMData poll. 
Their popularity may be the most influential element 
in a Pimentel win.  Although Leite was given support 
by the ever-popular Neves (Brazilian Social 
Democratic Party/PSDB) at the end of June, that 
support has been luke-warm and ambiguous.  Neves, 
for the most part, has remained outside the mayoral 
campaign, although he has made occasional 
sympathetic comments about Pimentel and other 
candidates for mayor and has not praised the 
candidate his party supports in coalition with the 
PSB, Leite.  Neves' distance from the municipal 
elections is read by Neves' supporters as his 
adherence to the principle of loyalty to the PSDB 
decision to support Leite rather than actual support 
for the candidate - a supposition that Leite is 
having a hard time overcoming, affecting his ability 
to raise funds. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Leite has no way to counter the Pimentel 
claim that federal funds will pour into the city as 
soon as he is elected.  Nor can he compete with the 
tremendous weight that comes with incumbency: where 
Leite's campaign headquarters is a loaned, spare 
building in downtown Belo, the governor has the 
formidable city hall as his electoral backdrop and a 
cast of thousands of public employees at his beck 
and call.  Pimentel can point to projects the city 
government has funded, such as the distribution of 
thousands of school books and backpacks, or the 
building of new roads that leave Leite at a distinct 
disadvantage.  Despite the electoral hew and cry, 
however, Pimentel and Leite are little different in 
their campaign platforms:  improving health care, 
building more and better schools, developing 
infrastructure, controlling drug/arms trafficking, 
and job creation.  Both Pimentel and Leite are 
focusing on the 28,642 new voters under the age of 
18, an increase of 115 percent in relation to 2002 
of the number of 16 and 17-year olds.  Currently, 
both principal candidates are filming electoral 
spots for the opening of the TV/radio programs which 
start August 18 and run through September 30. 
 
7.  (SBU)  Among the many people with whom Poloff 
discussed the mayoral campaign, Marcos Coimbras of 
the prominent Vox Populi polling company provided 
the most insight into the election.  He discussed 
the astonishing transformation of President Lula in 
the last year, a man who is getting bigger and 
better than when he began.  Coimbras said the 
Brazilian people are fascinated by the President as 
a statesman, dealing both with national and 
international issues as a political leader rather 
than a party leader, a man capable of governing, a 
"superLula."   Coimbras admitted that Lula's 
popularity fell when the Waldomiro scandal broke 
this past spring, but said that the initial euphoria 
of Lula's election and the high expectations that 
accompanied his campaign promises were impossible to 
sustain.  The Brazilian people now have more 
realistic expectations of what a government can 
accomplish in a short period of time.  The Worker's 
Party, Coimbras said, has not gotten off so easily; 
he said the party is in disarray, with much in- 
fighting and the people are aware of it.  Lula's 
increasing popularity will have a distinctly 
positive effect on Pimentel's campaign, according to 
Coimbras. 
 
8.  (SBU)  Coimbras predicted, as did many other 
people in the capital, that Pimentel would win the 
mayoralty in a close race.  He declared Pimentel a 
decent administrator who indeed had access to 
federal funds for building roads, etc.  He 
criticized Pimentel for not having the political 
savvy to come forward aggressively once he took over 
as mayor.  Coimbras believes Pimentel has been able 
to maintain an admirable image of PT accomplishments 
for the last year and a half, especially in 
infrastructure development. 
 
9.  (SBU) Coimbras indicated that Leite's reputation 
has suffered because he talks too much about 
prisoner rights rather than having sympathy for 
victims of crime and violence in his press 
conferences.  Although Leite defended himself as a 
strong supporter of the police in their battle 
against crime (his father was a Military Police 
officer), he is too easily identified as too much on 
the side of criminals.  With the increasing crime 
wave in Belo Horizonte, crime will probably be the 
central issue in the election.  The perception that 
Leite is soft on crime will play a pivotal 
psychological role in whom voters elect, Coimbras 
stressed.  Another problem Leite has is campaign 
funds: since Leite is not really seen as Neves' 
candidate, he is also having trouble raising money. 
 
10.  (SBU)  Comment:  The mayoral race in Belo 
Horizonte is too close to call at this point.  Like 
the three previous races for mayor, it will probably 
remain too close to call right up to the day of the 
elections.  Watching the polls once the influential 
television and radio spots begin on August 18 will 
inform on what the effect of the Mendonca publicity 
campaign in conjunction with the participation of PT 
heavy-weights, the incumbency, and the PT war chest 
has in getting Pimentel elected.  The big unknown is 
the evangelical support for Leite, which may turn 
the tide in his favor. 
 
11.  (SBU)  A PT win in Belo Horizonte, the third 
largest city in Brazil, would be an important 
indicator of the success of the Lula administration 
two years into its term.  The recent surge in the PT 
mayoral incumbent's popularity in Sao Paulo is also 
a good sign of the people's approval of the PT.  The 
improvement in the economy is another plus for the 
administration.  In Rio de Janeiro, however, the 
Liberal Party candidate is likely to win, with the 
PT candidate still in the single digits in the 
polls.  Two out of the three largest cities in the 
country is not bad.   End Comment. 
 
BENESCH