US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2600

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002600 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
FROM THE AMBASSADOR 
ALSO FOR WHA A/S NORIEGA, S STAFF, D STAFF, P STAFF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2013 
TAGS: KDEM, PGOV, PREL, VE 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S VIEWS ON VENEZUELA'S REFERENDUM 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles S. Shapiro for reason 1.4 (d) 
 
1. (C)  By law, the Venezuelan recall referendum campaign 
ends August 12 at midnight.  Eighteen months ago the idea 
that Venezuelans could determine their own future through the 
ballot box seemed a dream, if not a mirage.  On August 15 
record numbers of Venezuelans will go to the polls and make 
their voices heard.  The credit for this democratic and 
mostly peaceful outcome belongs to the Venezuelan people, 
supported by the OAS, Carter Center, and the USG and other 
governments. 
 
2. (C)  The United States can be proud of the role we have 
played.  We have used our influence bilaterally and through 
the OAS and Group of Friends to help bring about a peaceful, 
democratic, constitutional and electoral solution.  We have 
worked to strengthen democratic institutions.  We have 
discouraged those who would use shortcuts, and above all have 
pressured the Chavez administration to play by the rules 
established in the Venezuelan constitution.  We have resisted 
Chavez's repeated efforts to bilateralize the referendum. 
Polling data is contradictory, and there are serious 
questions about the reliability of the polls.  Both sides 
explain with equal conviction how they are winning.  It is 
now up to the Venezuelan voters to make their voices heard. 
 
3. (C)  The Government and its majority on the National 
Electoral Council (CNE) have done everything they could to 
make it difficult for international observers to do their 
jobs.  The OAS and Carter Center have negotiated what they 
consider to be minimally acceptable conditions.  Only this 
morning did the Carter Center obtain all of the credentials 
and the unrestricted access it needs in order to do its job. 
If the Opposition wins by a narrow margin, the government 
will do everything it can to move one or two percent of the 
vote from Si to No.  There will be tremendous pressure on the 
OAS and Carter Center observers to bless the process even if 
it is flawed.  I spoke August 10 with former Argentine 
President Alfonsn and former Costa Rican President Carrazo. 
Both were already dismissing concerns of the Carter Center 
technical experts as the sort of normal background noise one 
sees in any election.  Their attitude makes the role of Jimmy 
Carter that much more important. 
 
4. (C)  The polls close at 4:00 pm EDT, but they will stay 
open until all of those in line at 4:00 cast their vote.  The 
CNE has committed to releasing preliminary results by 7:00 
pm.  The Carter Center and OAS technical experts should have 
their quick counts by then and are prepared to act if the 
CNE,s numbers vary significantly from their own. 
 
5. (C)  There is a chance of violence both from the victors 
and from the losers no matter what the outcome.  We have 
reviewed our security posture, issued a Public Announcement 
to American citizens, and battened down the hatches. 
 
6. (C)  The Opposition has worked wonders to get this far. 
It has directed its campaign to those already committed to 
the Opposition, attacking Chavez for all of his shortcomings, 
for polarizing the nation, and for his authoritarian style of 
governing.  Those messages worked well enough to get them 
through the reparos and they are sticking with what got them 
here.  They have developed a platform that tells people 
generally what they would do if they were to govern the 
country, but they have not been successful in conveying it to 
the voters in specific terms. 
 
7. (C)  Chavez has campaigned both to his supporters and to 
the undecided voters.  Using the entire government machinery 
- and intimidation and retaliation - his campaign has reached 
every corner of the country and is directed at convincing 
voters that their lives will be better and their children's 
future better by sticking with him rather than taking a leap 
of faith with the Opposition.  Chavez's repeated vitriolic 
attacks on the United States in his press conference today 
makes me wonder if he is not doing as well as he says he is. 
 
8. (C)  The voters go to the polls Sunday to chose between 
two very clear options.  For the Opposition to win, the most 
respected polling organizations would have to be wrong.  For 
Chavez to win, he will have to win more votes than he has in 
any past election; the newly registered voters, and the most 
 
marginalized of the poor in the shantytowns and remote rural 
settlements would have turn out in greater numbers than they 
ever have.  The imponderables include the weather, the 
willingness of voters to endure long lines, the reliability 
of new fingerprinting checking and touch-screen voting 
machines, whether there is fraud, and if so, the ability of 
the international observers to detect and act upon this 
fraud. This recall referendum is too close to call. 
Shapiro 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02600 - CONFIDENTIAL