US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2598

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002598 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
USAID FOR DCHA/OTI RPORTER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, VE, OAS 
SUBJECT: LOOKING TOWARD REFERENDUM DAY 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASON 1.5 (D) 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
1.  (C) On August 15, Venezuelans will take a decisive step 
in finding a peaceful, democratic electoral solution to the 
country's political crisis.  Nearly 15 months since the 
signing of the OAS agreement, Venezuelans will say whether 
President Hugo Chavez stays or goes.  The CNE appears ready 
for the vote, and the competing sides had their final rallies 
August 12.  Some doubts  about the National Electoral Council 
(CNE)'s ability to conduct an impartial recall vote persist, 
and the opposition and government's strong belief in the 
polls will likely lead to accusations of fraud.  The ruling 
of the international observers will be key.  The streets are 
rife with rumors, some likely based on bravado, that 
opposition and government supporters are planning violence to 
begin as early as the afternoon of August 15 before the polls 
close. In addition to violence, the capacity of the voting 
and fingerprint machines, degree of transparency, and the 
weather will be important factors in determining the outcome 
of the referendum and the willingness of either side to 
accept the results.  Only preliminary results are expected 
August 15.  End summary. 
 
 
--------------- 
Referendum Day 
--------------- 
 
2.  (C)  The polls will open on August 15 at 6 am and will 
remain open until 4 pm, although all who are in line by that 
time will be able to vote.  President Chavez and opposition 
leaders have told their supporters to line up as early as 
possible and are organizing caravans to ensure that voters 
get to the correct polling stations.  Pollsters and political 
party leaders we have talked to expect at least a 70 percent 
turn out.  Some opposition leaders also say party "brigades" 
will be out in force to prevent and/or counter anticipated 
voter intimidation by the government.  While the majority of 
the vote will be automated, due in part to the last minute 
reassignment of some voters to polling centers, approximately 
30 percent of the vote will be manual as well.  International 
Observers will be out nationwide, as well as, in National 
Electoral Council (CNE) headquarters when the votes are 
transmitted.  The CNE says they will be able to announce the 
results within 3 hours after the polls close.  OAS electoral 
mission head Edgardo Reis says that while the CNE prohibits 
taking a quick count, they will take an informal sample of 
the results that they will check against the formal results. 
To reduce charges of fraud and the possibility of widespread 
violence, the CNE will have to announce the results of the 
referendum Sunday night, the Carter Center and OAS will have 
to find the process completely transparent, and the winner 
will need a large margin of victory. 
 
3.  (C) The campaign period ends at midnight on August 12 
with each party sponsoring their final rallies in which they 
promise the largest turnout of the campaign season.  The 
Chavistas have overwhelmed the campaign period so far using 
government money to print signs  plastered all over cities, 
and routine presidential addresses that all television 
stations were required to broadcasts.  In comparison, the 
opposition's campaign was late to bloom and relied in some 
cases more on supporters painting their cars with "SI" 
instead of the placards, due in part to the reluctance of 
some businessmen to give to the opposition's cause.  The 
opposition campaign coordinators also sponsored local 
community meetings to get out the vote.  All media outlets 
showed government and opposition advertisements, according to 
CNE regulations.  Television shows, including local soap 
operas, also had themes that supported, respectively, the 
opposition and government positions. 
 
 
-------------------- 
What Could go Wrong 
 
-------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Despite CNE demonstrations of the fingerprint and 
voting machines, we remain concerned that the use of two new 
technologies for such an important vote could cause 
unforeseen technical problems that delay the vote and prompt 
accusations of fraud and/or violence.  Technical experts tell 
us the fingerprint machines will take 5 to 30 seconds to 
process each voter.  If, as predicted, some 9.8 million 
people turn out to vote, this would present a real challenge 
to the new system and cause significant delays that could 
turn off some potential voters, particularly if it rains, as 
the weather forecast predicts.  These problems will also lend 
themselves to allegations of irregularities and fraud. 
 
5.  (C)  Although mid-July Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner poll 
suggests that a slim majority of voters believe their vote 
will be secret, there are fears that votes will not be 
counted correctly or that they will somehow be manipulated 
during transmission to the CNE.  There is a concern that if 
the government, either as a result of exit polls or advanced 
warning from the CNE, realizes it is losing, it may order the 
sabotage of the voting system or call on supporters to cause 
violence (to deter other voters and/or suspend the vote) that 
will then be blamed on the opposition.  Vice President Jose 
Vicente Rangel has already accused the opposition of planning 
"acts of terrorism" and the continuing mystery of missing C4 
and other explosives fuels this rumor among opposition 
supporters.  Others predict violence will occur August 16 as 
the winners take revenge against the losers.  In this 
scenario, opposition supporters believe  the military and 
international community will intervene and ask Chavez to step 
down. 
 
-------- 
Comment 
-------- 
 
6.   (C) Both sides have had over a year to plead their case 
to the people and now is the hour of the Venezuelan people to 
decide who they want to govern them.  By now everyone has 
made up their minds if they will vote and for whom they will 
vote.  The belief that the vote is secret may be the ultimate 
swing factor.  Given the level of distrust the political 
parties have for each other and the CNE, international 
observation will be the key to keeping the process on track 
and improving the chances that the loser will accept the 
results. 
 
Shapiro 
 
 
NNNN 
      2004CARACA02598 - CONFIDENTIAL