US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2582

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002582 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: MAKING SENSE OF VENEZUELA'S POLLS 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Abelardo A. Arias for reason 1.5 (d) 
 
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 Summary 
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1. (C)  The August 4 release of a poll reportedly by the 
Venezuelan Institute of Data Analysis (IVAD in Spanish) 
showing a majority favoring the recall of President Hugo 
Chavez, prompted a fierce response from Minister of 
Communication and Information Jesse Chacon, who said he had 
seen other polls from IVAD giving Chavez the lead.  Felix 
Seijas, president of IVAD, denied the poll came from his 
company, sparking a wave of speculation about the veracity of 
the poll and which side, the opposition or the government had 
planted it.  On 5 august the former dean of the Central 
University of Venezuela (UCV) solved the mystery when he 
claimed authorship.  Meanwhile, a series of polls have come 
out giving each side an advantage over the other.  The only 
thing that is clear is that Venezuelan polls are no help in 
predicting the outcome of the 15 August vote and while 
neither side will be surprised if it wins, the loser will 
tend to question a loss that contradicts its polling. End 
summary. 
 
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Mystery Poll Causes Confusion 
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2. (C) A poll released 5 August, originally described as a 
poll conducted by the  Venezuelan Institute of Data Analysis 
(IVAD in Spanish), showed 50 percent were in favor of 
recalling President Hugo Chavez and only 44 percent in favor 
of retaining him, with 6 percent undecided.  The next day 
IVAD President Felix Seijas denied the poll came from his 
company and cited as proof the fact that his company, unlike 
the author of the poll, is on record as not believing in the 
so called ni-ni group (those that favor neither Chavez nor 
the opposition).  Communication and Information Minister 
Jesse Chacon immediately denounced the poll as the work of 
the opposition's laboratory and blasted the press for 
allowing itself to be used as an opposition propaganda tool. 
He said other polls in July, including previous IVAD polls, 
had Chavez ahead by 10 to 35 points.  Former dean of the 
Central University of Venezuela (UCV) Rafael Ramirez then 
claimed authorship of the poll on August 6.  Ramirez said the 
poll was an scientific study conducted by a team of highly 
respected professors who interviewed 1200 people in mid-June. 
 He said he did not know how the preliminary results from the 
poll were released. 
 
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Polling Predictions for 15 August 
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3.  (C) Since then a series of polls have been released 
putting President Hugo Chavez and the opposition within 6 to 
9 percent of each other.  A Cifras Encuestadores poll (CECA) 
taken 1 August found 55.7 percent would vote to recall Chavez 
while 35.5 percent would vote to retain him.  Hinterlaces 
polled 1500 registered voters in 10 cities and regions and 
conducted focus groups with the working class and poor in 
five cities from 3 to 18 July.  It found 40 percent would 
vote to revoke Chavez while 51 percent would vote to retain 
him.  A Consultores 21 (C21) poll of 1500 registered voters 
taken during the last two weeks of July showed 43.5 percent 
planned to vote against Chavez while 49 percent favored him. 
During conversations with poloff Datanalisis president Jose 
Antonio Gil Yepes and Datos president Edmund Saade said their 
latest polls were similar to Hinterlaces and C21's results. 
 
4. (C) According to Gil and Saade, the important trend to 
focus on is that Chavez has considerably narrowed the 39 
percent lead the opposition had in July 2003.  The pollsters 
noted that Chavez has even gained among the ni-ni, although 
they admitted that most still tend to favor the opposition. 
Those who are truly neutral comprise about 4-5 percent of 
likely voters.  The Hinterlaces poll, which indicates Chavez 
 
gained 11 percent of the ni-ni between April and July of this 
year, corroborates this trend as well.  Both pollsters say 
those who are truly neutral comprise about 4-5 percent of 
likely voters, while Hinterlaces puts the figure at 14 
percent. 
 
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Why Chavez Would Win 
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5. (C) According to the focus groups Hinterlaces conducted, 
Chavez,s steady rise in the polls can be attributed to 
rampant government social spending, the work Chavez is 
perceived to be doing for the poor, the economic recovery, 
and the image many have of the opposition as troublemakers. 
The C21 poll, which like Hinterlaces was conducted among 
registered voters, suggests Chavez is benefiting from 
perceptions rather than reality.  According to the C21 poll, 
the Mercal, Barrio Adentro, and Mision Identidad voter 
registration programs reached the most participants (42.2, 
26, and 25 percent respectively) while the other "missions" 
reached 10 percent or less.  Yet when participants were asked 
if enough Venezuelans benefited from the missions, more than 
half thought they did.  Saade said his company's polls showed 
a similar trend.  The apparent success of the economy also 
continues to be a significant factor as 48 percent of 
respondents to the C21 poll said their economic situation was 
good and 64.5 percent said it would likely improve a little 
or a lot. 
 
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Opposition Has Little Ability to Turn the Tide 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
6. (SBU) When asked what the opposition could do to improve 
its chances of winning, Saade and Gil said it was probably 
too late.  Both faulted the opposition for its lack of clear 
leadership, its inability to stay on message and its failure 
to choose a standard bearer.   Gil and Saade rejected the 
idea that the &fear factor8 will have a significant impact 
on the outcome of the referendum.  If anything, according to 
Gil, Chavez runs the risk of making a mistake with his 
accusations of fraud, but he too was down on the opposition's 
prospects for turning things around. 
 
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Comment 
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7. (C) The polls are confusing, but the message is clear: 
the outcome of the referendum will be determined on 15 August 
only and not by the polls.  The pollsters and politicians 
poloff has talked to say the close statistical race is one of 
the reasons political tension and pre-referendum violence has 
been low.  Nevertheless, each side's strong belief in the 
polls that predict their own victory will make it harder for 
the loser to accept defeat. 
Shapiro 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02582 - CONFIDENTIAL