US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2581

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002581 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2014 
TAGS: KDEM, PGOV, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: CARTER CENTER BRIEFS AMBASSADORS 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Abelardo A. Arias for reason 1.5 (d) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Carter Center delegation representatives, including 
former Argentine President Raul Alfonsin and former Costa 
Rican President Rodrigo Carazo, met with resident ambassadors 
August 10 to discuss the Carter Center's role as 
international observers of the referendum.  They outlined 
observation mechanics and discussed the political dimension 
of the mission.  The ambassadors voiced concern about the 
polarization and potential for violence as well as the 
politicization of the CNE.  Following the meeting, many of 
them also expressed concern that Alfonsin seemed willing to 
bless the vote, no matter the process.  Diez later stressed 
to poloff that former President Carter would not/not certify 
results unless he felt confident in the judgment. End Summary. 
 
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Carter Center Briefs on Observation Mechanics 
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2. (C) Acting as heads of The Carter Center (TCC) observation 
mission until former President Carter arrives in Caracas 
August 13, former Presidents Alfonsin and Carazo briefed 
resident ambassadors August 10 on the Carter Center's 
preparation for the referendum.  TCC representative in 
Caracas Francisco Diez and head of TCC's technical 
observation effort Edgardo Mimica also participated.  They 
explained they are operating under "minimum conditions" but 
that they expect to have the capacity to observe the 
installation of the voting machines, visit various voting 
centers throughout the day, observe the closing of the polls, 
and the counting and transmission of the results. 
 
3. (C) The Carter Center observer mission is comprised of 
observers from 14 different countries arriving August 11-13. 
Diez and Mimica told the ambassadors they were not used to 
restrictions on the number of observers in their missions and 
hoped to have at least enough TCC observers for teams of two 
to travel to each of the 24 states in Venezuela, plus an 
extra team for Caracas. They said they were working with the 
National Electoral Council (CNE) to expand the TCC mission to 
match the size of the Organization of American States (OAS) 
mission comprised of 68.  Diez later told the Ambassador the 
Carter Center received the number of observers they sought. 
 
4. (C) The mission includes technical observers who will work 
with OAS technicians as well as with SMARTMATIC and CANTV 
representatives operating the fingerprint and voting 
machines.  Mimica said the TCC had a "superficial review" of 
the machines and was impressed by the advanced technology. 
He warned, however, that the machines were not programmed 
with the latest voting registration.  Therefore, 
approximately two million new registered voters would have to 
vote by paper ballot.  Asked if they will be able to carry 
out a quick count, the TCC representatives said yes, but it 
would just be for the mission to verify the results tabulated 
by the CNE. 
 
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TCC Discusses Political Dimension of the Mission 
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5. (C) Many of the ambassadors expressed their concern about 
polarization and the fact that neither the opposition nor the 
government is prepared to lose the referendum.  Alfonsin said 
such polarization happens in every country in every election 
throughout Latin America. The Mexican and Chilean ambassador 
emphasized that there is a possibility of violence on the 
part of the state, referring to VP Jose Vincente Rangel's 
threat of violence if the opposition releases its preliminary 
numbers before the CNE.  Alfonsin responded that former 
Argentine President Eduardo Duhalde was here in Caracas and 
 
met with all the political parties to ensure a fair and 
peaceful process.  Diez acknowledged the possibility of 
violence but noted that the campaign period had not been 
nearly as volatile as expected. 
 
6. (C) The Chilean ambassador raised the issue of CNE 
politicization, noting that its bias toward the GOV would 
make the observation mission very difficult.  The Costa Rican 
ambassador added that there were some who thought the Carter 
Center would not be willing to confront the CNE if it had to. 
 Alfonsin and Carazo acknowledged the concern and said they 
are here to facilitate and give the Venezuelan people 
confidence in the process.  Mimica acknowledged the difficult 
job and expressed regret that the experienced hands from the 
European Union were not there with them. 
 
7. (C) Diez later told poloff that there would be pressure on 
the international observers to certify the results, whether 
or not they have had sufficient information, but that former 
President Carter would not/not certify results unless he felt 
confident in the judgment.  Diez also told poloff he did not 
think the GOV would attempt any "tricks" with so many 
international observers and journalists as well as the 
Venezuelan press and the recently CNE- accredited national 
observers from "Ojo Electoral" watching the process.  He said 
it would also be difficult for the GOV to play games with six 
former heads of state, including Presidents Carter, Alfonsin, 
Carazo, Duhalde, Cesar Gaviria, and Belisario Betancur, in 
Venezuela.  He said they would meet together with President 
Chavez August 14. 
 
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Ambassador Reiterates U.S. Policy 
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8. (C) Referring to the August 6 Financial Times article, 
Alfonsin asked the Ambassador if U.S. policy toward Venezuela 
or the referendum had changed.  The Ambassador responded that 
our policy has been consistent, supporting a fair and 
transparent referendum process.  He explained to Alfonsin and 
the ambassadors that the U.S. has emphasized the importance 
of international observation and supported the efforts of the 
Carter Center and the OAS for that reason. 
 
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Comment 
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9. (C) The Carter Center briefing left us and other 
ambassadors with the impression that Alfonsin and Carazo are 
willing to accept anything from the CNE and GOV.  Left unsaid 
but understood was also their presumption that Chavez would 
win the referendum.  With Alfonsin and Carazo seemingly 
unwilling to confront the CNE and outgoing OAS SYG Gaviria 
seemingly taking a back-seat to OAS mission head Pecly 
Moreira, it could be up to former President Carter - and 
Carter alone - to call the election. 
Shapiro 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02581 - CONFIDENTIAL