US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2577

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002577 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, ELAB, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 11 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for 
Reason 1.5(d) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) approved the 
Venezuelan NGO "Electoral Eye" as the only national 
observation group for the August 15 referendum.  Beginning 
from six different points throughout Caracas and culminating 
on the highway, opposition supporters will begin a march to 
conclude the "Si" campaign August 12 in the afternoon. 
Coordinadora Democratica technicians who participated in the 
audit of the electronic voting machines August 8 announced 
their satisfaction with the security of the voting machines 
and the data transmission lines provided by CANTV August 11. 
Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza complained that the 
CNE planned to use numbered manual voting ballots, and thus 
would violate secrecy, to Organization of American States 
(OAS) representative Valter Pecly Moreira.  Pablo Castro, 
Executive Secretary of the Confederation of Workers of 
Venezuela (CTV) and CTV representative in the Coordinadora 
Democratica, told Poloff August 10 that anti-Chavez unions 
plan to form "brigades" of workers nationwide to counter 
harassment of election centers by Chavez supporters on 
referendum day.  End Summary. 
 
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National Observers 
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2. (U) The National Electoral Council (CNE) approved the 
Venezuelan NGO Ojo Electoral (Electoral Eye) as the only 
national observation group for the August 15 referendum. 
According to Eleazar Diaz Range, one of the directors of the 
Electoral Eye and editor of the daily newspaper Ultimas 
Noticias, the organization was formed at the suggestion of 
the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and is considered to 
be an unbiased electoral organization.  The group has 
accepted technical assistance but not funding from NDI to 
maintain its credibility.  The Electoral Eye board is 
considered by both the GOV and opposition to be bipartisan 
because of its pro-Chavez and anti-Chavez membership. 
Collaborating with other NGO's like Faith and Joy, the 
Electoral Eye will deploy around 500 national observers 
throughout Venezuela. In addition to verifying the validity 
of the referendum process, the Electoral Eye is also the only 
organization sanctioned by the CNE to perform a quick count 
on August 15. 
 
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Opposition Campaign Finale 
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3. (U) Beginning from six different points throughout Caracas 
and culminating on the capital's central highway, opposition 
supporters will march to conclude the campaign to recall 
President Hugo Chavez August 12 in the afternoon.  The 
opposition organizers promised surprises, political speeches, 
concerts, and fireworks.  Carlos Valero of the Coordinadora 
said several municipal police forces would provide security 
for the marchers.  He claimed the opposition expects a 
peaceful march with around one million supporters attending. 
Valero said, "We will not march on Miraflores because we will 
be there on August 16." 
 
 
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Opposition Gives Voting Machines the "All Clear" 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
4. (U) Coordinadora Democratica technicians who participated 
in the audit of the electronic voting machines August 8 
announced their satisfaction with the security of the 
Smartmatic machines and the data transmission lines provided 
by CANTV August 11.  CNE representatives announced their 
satisfaction with the machines August 9. 
 
 
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Opposition Denunciations 
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5. (U) Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza complained that 
the CNE planned to use numbered manual voting ballots, and 
thus would violate secrecy, to Organization of American 
States (OAS) representative Valter Pecly Moreira.   Mendoza 
said the manual ballots violate the secrecy of the vote 
because there are numbers imprinted on the ballots that can 
be used to track a voter's choice.  Upon departing the 
meeting with Mendoza, Pecly said the OAS would communicate 
the opposition's concerns to the CNE.  CNE President 
Francisco Carrasquero denied there were any identifying marks 
on the manual ballots charging opposition members of becoming 
accustomed to making false statements. 
 
 
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Insiders' Views 
---------------- 
 
6. (C) At an August 11 breakfast, Carmelo Lauria, former 
chief of staff for Carlos Andres Perez, President of 
Congress, and banker, told Emboffs August 11 he was concerned 
about the possibility of the opposition being robbed of a 
referendum victory by fraud, and that together with SUMATE, 
he had been gaming out potential scenarios.  Lauria suggested 
that Chavez is convinced he has the majority on his side, and 
that his "manipulators" (notably Vice President Jose Vicente 
Rangel) have commissioned multiple polls distorted to show 
him to be ahead, and create the atmosphere for Chavez to 
consider an adverse result to be fraudulent.  Jesus Alberto 
Lauria, Carmelo's brother and President of one of Venezuela's 
largest insurance companies, was more upbeat, suggesting that 
the opposition's victory would be large enough that Chavez 
would not be able to challenge it without resorting to fraud 
on a scale too great to be convincing. 
 
7. (C) Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) President Felipe 
Mujica told Poloff August 11 he was confident of a 60-40 win 
for the opposition, dismissing polls to the contrary as 
efforts at campaign spin.  Mujica discounted the possibility 
of violence during the voting, saying that the massive 
numbers of people in line will dissuade partisans from 
harassing voters.  He suggested the Coordinadora Democratica 
(CD) would try to establish contact with the GOV to ensure a 
peaceful election day, and that that mechanism could be used 
to fix a date for the presidential elections if the 
opposition wins on August 15.  Assuming a decisive win for 
the opposition, Mujica doubted President Chavez would ignore 
the results and try to stay in office. 
 
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Union Strikes Back 
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8. (C) Pablo Castro, Executive Secretary of the Confederation 
of Workers of Venezuela (CTV) and CTV representative in the 
Coordinadora Democratica, told Poloff August 10 that 
anti-Chavez unions plan to form "brigades" of workers 
nationwide to counter harassment of election centers by 
Chavez supporters on referendum day.  Castro said the groups 
would be armed mostly with sticks and stones -- even frozen 
oranges.  The groups, he said, will respond to reports of 
harassment with a superior number of opposition brigades. 
Asked whether the opposition would be armed, Castro said they 
would not have "weapons of war." 
 
9. (C) Castro also confirmed that CTV President Carlos Ortega 
is in Venezuela as reported by the press.  Castro said 
Ortega's arrival was a surprise to CTV leadership, including 
to Secretary General Manuel Cova.  Castro said the CTV had 
agreed to support Ortega's return through a carefully managed 
media event in which Ortega would present himself to the 
Attorney General's office to face charges of conspiracy and 
treason related to the December 2002 national strike.  Castro 
 
said Ortega himself had backed away from the deal and since 
then talks between the CTV and Ortega have been minimal. 
(Comment: Coordinadora Democratica leaders and we agree that 
Ortega's return hurts the opposition. His presence in 
Venezuela is a gift to President Chavez). 
Shapiro 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02577 - CONFIDENTIAL