US embassy cable - 01HARARE2678

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002678 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 09/12/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: MDC WINS BULAWAYO IN LANDSLIDE BUT LOSES MAKONI WEST 
PARLIAMENTARY SEAT 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.  REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
REF: A) HARARE 2666  B) HARARE 2642 
 
BULAWAYO 
-------- 
 
1.  (U) AS EXPECTED, THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE 
(MDC) SWEPT THE SEPTEMBER 8-9 ELECTIONS IN BULAWAYO, WINNING THE 
MAYORAL RACE AND ALL SEVEN CITY COUNCIL SEATS UNDER CONTENTION BY 
A LANDSLIDE.  THE MDC'S MAYORAL CANDIDATE, JAPHET NDABENI-NCUBE, 
WON 83 PERCENT OF THE VOTES CAST (REPRESENTING 60,988 VOTES), 
WHILE ZANU-PF'S GEORGE MLILO GARNERED ONLY 17 PERCENT (12,783 
VOTES).   THIS WAS THE FIRST DIRECT POPULAR ELECTION FOR THE 
MAYORSHIP OF BULAWAYO; PREVIOUS MAYORS WERE APPOINTED OR SELECTED 
BY THE CITY COUNCIL.   AN ECSTATIC NDABENI-NCUBE TOLD JOURNALISTS 
AFTER HIS VICTORY WAS ANNOUNCED, "WE ARE REALLY ON THE ROAD TO 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE.  THIS IS A VICTORY FOR THE PEOPLE OF BULAWAYO." 
THE OPPOSITION PARTY WON ALL SEVEN COUNCIL SEATS BY HUGE MARGINS, 
GARNERING 72 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN THE CLOSEST WARD AND 85 
PERCENT IN THE MDC'S MOST CONVINCING WIN.  THE MDC NOW HOLDS NINE 
OF THE 29 SEATS ON BULAWAYO'S CITY COUNCIL (ZANU-PF CONTROLS 17 
AND THE REMAINING 3 SEATS ARE HELD BY INDEPENDENTS). 
 
2.  (C) THE RESULTS WERE MARRED BY SOME VIOLENCE AND THE REPORTED 
HARASSMENT OF MDC OFFICIALS, INCLUDING NDABENI-NCUBE HIMSELF.  AS 
NEWS SPREAD THAT THE MDC HAD WON ALL SEVEN CITY COUNCIL SEATS, 
GROUPS OF WAR VETERANS AND ZANU-PF YOUTHS RAMPAGED THROUGH SEVERAL 
STREETS IN BULAWAYO.  ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, THE GROUPS BEAT 
AND STONED THOSE SUSPECTED OF BEING AN OPPOSITION SUPPORTER; 
DOZENS OF CARS WERE REPORTEDLY STONED AND SOME PROPERTY WAS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02678  01 OF 02  120925Z 
DAMAGED.  ARMED RIOT POLICE WERE DEPLOYED TO DISPERSE THE GROUPS. 
SHARI EPPEL, DIRECTOR OF THE BULAWAYO BRANCH OF THE RESPECTED 
HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION AMANI TRUST, TOLD POLITICAL SECTION 
CHIEF THAT TEN PEOPLE WERE INJURED IN THE MELEE, ONE OF WHOM WAS 
HOSPITALIZED WITH A SERIOUS STAB WOUND.  ASKED WHETHER THE VICTIMS 
WERE PREDOMINANTLY SUPPORTERS OF ONE POLITICAL PARTY, EPPEL SAID 
THEY ALL APPEARED TO BE INNOCENT PASSERS-BY. 
 
3.  (U) IN WHAT APPEARED TO BE PRIMARILY A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES, 
NDABENI-NCUBE WAS ACCUSED BY POLICE OF BRIBING A VOTER WHEN HE 
HANDED A Z$20 NOTE (EQUIVALENT TO SIX U.S. CENTS) TO HIS UNCLE TO 
BUY A DRINK, WHILE HIS UNCLE WAS WAITING TO CAST HIS BALLOT.  THE 
PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE DECLINED TO PROSECUTE.   MORE DISTURBING, 
DURING THE EVENING OF SEPTEMBER 9, THREE SHOTS WERE FIRED IN THE 
GENERAL DIRECTION OF A GROUP OF SENIOR MDC OFFICIALS WHICH 
INCLUDED VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN 
NCUBE, DIRECTOR FOR ELECTIONS PAUL THEMBA-NYATHI, AND NATIONAL 
TREASURER FLETCHER DULINI.  FORTUNATELY, NO ONE WAS INJURED.  MDC 
SPOKESMAN LEARNMORE JONGWE DESCRIBED THE INCIDENT AS A "NAKED 
ATTEMPT TO ASSASSINATE THE VICE-PRESIDENT."   WE ARE NOT 
COMFORTABLE WITH THIS CHARACTERIZATION ABSENT ANY INDEPENDENT 
CORROBORATION. 
 
MAKONI WEST 
----------- 
 
4.  (C) ZANU-PF'S GIBSON MUNYORO EASILY WON THE PARLIAMENTARY BY- 
ELECTION IN MAKONI WEST WITH 62 PERCENT OF THE VOTE (10,610 
VOTES), DEFEATING THE MDC'S REMUS MAKUWAZA, WHO GARNERED 34 
PERCENT (5841 VOTES).  THREE THOUSAND FEWER VOTERS CAST THEIR 
BALLOTS THAN IN THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION; THE MDC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02678  01 OF 02  120925Z 
SECURED 1515 FEWER VOTES THIS TIME WHILE ZANU-PF RECEIVED 528 
FEWER VOTES.  THE DECLINE IN VOTER TURNOUT MAY BE EXPLAINED BY THE 
FACT THAT THIS WAS A BY-ELECTION.  WE SUSPECT THAT MANY RESIDENTS 
DID NOT BELIEVE IT WAS WORTH MAKING THE SIGNIFICANT EFFORT TO GET 
TO THE NEAREST POLLING STATION WHEN THE STAKES DID NOT APPEAR 
PARTICULARLY HIGH.  PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE PROBABLY ALSO DETERRED 
SOME VOTERS.  THE ZANU-PF LEADERSHIP WAS ELATED BY THE OUTCOME, 
WHICH THE PROVINCIAL PARTY SPOKESMAN CHARLES PEMHENAYI HERALDED AS 
A SIGN THAT "IMPERIALISM IS ON THE WAY OUT.  THE ELECTION WAS AN 
INDICATION OF HOW THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL GO AFTER 
REALIZING THAT THE MDC WAS BEING SPONSORED BY IMPERIALISTS." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5.  (C) THE RESULTS IN BULAWAYO AND MAKONI WEST, WHICH SURPRISED 
FEW OBSERVERS, CONFIRMED THE MDC'S OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE IN 
URBANIZED AREAS AND THE RULING PARTY'S CONTINUING STRENGTH IN 
RURAL REGIONS.  THE BULAWAYO RESULT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT, AS 
IT GIVES THE MDC CONTROL OF THE MAYORAL SEATS IN TWO OF ZIMBABWE'S 
PRINCIPAL CITIES -- MASVINGO IS THE OTHER ONE -- AND POTENTIAL 
OPPORTUNITIES TO DEMONSTRATE EFFECTIVE EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP. 
SENIOR MDC OFFICIALS HAVE TOLD US REGULARLY THAT THEIR PARTY ONLY 
NEEDS TO GARNER 30-40 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN RURAL CONSTITUENCIES 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6397 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02678  02 OF 02  120925Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-00    L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /009W 
                  ------------------1DD8A3  120925Z /38 
P 120909Z SEP 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9688 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002678 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 09/12/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: MDC WINS BULAWAYO IN LANDSLIDE BUT LOSES MAKONI WEST 
PARLIAMENTARY SEAT 
 
IN ORDER TO WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION; BY THAT MEASURE, WE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02678  02 OF 02  120925Z 
EXPECT THE MDC WILL CONSIDER THE MAKONI RESULT SATISFACTORY. 
 
ROTH 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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