US embassy cable - 04RANGOON1035

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001035 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BM, ASSK, NLD 
SUBJECT: THE NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY: MONSOON SEASON 
BLUES 
 
REF: RANGOON 924 
 
Classified By: CDA a.i. Ron McMullen for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The NLD CEC has established regular 
communications with ASSK and U Tin Oo.  An ongoing NLD 
petition drive to free the two leaders has proven minimally 
appealing to party members and supporters, and has also 
encountered some regime resistance in Mandalay and Sagaing 
divisions.  With the regime apparently ignoring the NLD and 
the party itself lacking plans for imminent action, NLD 
leaders assess accurately that the political environment is 
"rather quiet these days."  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) Charge d'Affaires, a.i. and A/DCM met on August 10 
with NLD CEC members U Lwin and U Nyunt Wei.  U Lwin, 
describing the overall political environment as "rather quiet 
these days," observed that the SPDC had made no overtures to 
the NLD since the party's decision in mid-May to boycott the 
National Convention (currently in recess).  He noted that the 
regime seemed more concerned with foreign affairs than with 
the domestic political opposition, citing Prime Minister Khin 
Nyunt's recent travels to China, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, and 
Cambodia. 
 
3. (C) The NLD is busy with an ongoing petition drive which, 
the CEC members said, "was causing the authorities some 
concern" (reftel).  According to U Lwin, the party has 
received about 1,000 signatures at headquarters, but 
considerably more upcountry (e.g. Magway Division, with over 
5,000 signatures).  U Lwin said that the petition drive was 
an optional undertaking for regional party leaders and was 
"not popular everywhere," including Rangoon where many 
residents are "more interested in playing the lottery." 
However, U Lwin added, most members of the Veteran 
Politicians group (pro-democracy, retired government 
officials) had signed the petition. 
 
4. (C) U Nyunt Wei said that the petition effort had 
encountered resistance in Mandalay and Sagaing Divisions. 
Local authorities had not physically impeded party members 
from signing the petition, but had put into place 
intimidating surveillance at signing locations.  And, 
according to U Lwin, USDA officials (the regime's mass-member 
organization which carried out the 2003 attack in Sagaing on 
ASSK and her NLD convoy) had warned local NLD leaders that 
the petition campaign could provoke anti-NLD elements and 
"lead to clashes." 
 
5. (C) U Lwin said that the NLD CEC now maintains quiet, but 
regular, communications with ASSK.  "We hear from her on a 
daily basis," said U Lwin, observing with surprise that he 
and his colleagues were able to send in parcels and letters 
to ASSK "with no interference from the authorities."  (Note: 
We have used other channels in recent months to send in 
briefing papers and other messages, but have received no 
substantive responses.  End note.)  U Lwin also said that the 
CEC has regular contact with NLD Vice Chairman U Tin Oo, who 
is in "good health and good spirits," via his wife who visits 
NLD headquarters daily.  U Lwin said, however, that neither 
ASSK nor U Tin Oo have been allowed to visit other CEC 
members since negotiations with the SPDC broke down in May. 
 
6. (C) Comment:  The CDA, a.i. used this opportunity to 
re-extend the Embassy's offer to assist the party in any way 
possible, including capacity building efforts through public 
diplomacy programs.  U Lwin and U Nyunt Wei did not cite any 
specific immediate needs, but intimated they would 
communicate the offer to ASSK.  While the two elderly leaders 
appeared to be in good spirits, they revealed no plans for 
imminent party action and said that had no timetable or 
specific objective for the petition campaign.  The NLD CEC 
plans to convoke the Committee to Represent the People's 
Parliament (CRPP) for that group's sixth anniversary in 
September, but has not yet developed an agenda.  End Comment. 
 
 
McMullen