US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2563

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002563 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, VE, OAS 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 10 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reason 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) National Electoral Council (CNE) President Francisco 
Carrasquero August 9 warned the opposition and the media not 
to violate rules prohibiting the announcement of referendum 
results before the votes are officially counted August 15. 
Chavez supporters attacked opposition campaign workers in 
downtown Caracas on August 9, tearing down the opposition 
awning and burning campaign material.  The CNE moved up its 
test of the fingerprint machines to August 10 and 11 to test 
the efficiency of changes made to the network system.  OAS 
chief observer Ries and told Poloff August 10 the observer 
mission is proceeding normally.  Primero Justicia Secretary 
General Jose Luis Mejias expressed cautious optimism while 
Movimiento Quinta Republica (MVR) Deputy Calixto Ortega is 
"100% certain" that Chavez will win the referendum.  CANTV 
President Gustavo Roosen testified before a special 
commission of the National Assembly August 9 for six hours. 
End Summary. 
 
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Warning from the CNE 
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2. (U) Reacting to Governor Enrique Mendoza's announcement 
that the Coordinadora Democratica would give out results the 
afternoon of August 15, National Electoral Council (CNE) 
President Francisco Carrasquero warned the opposition and the 
media not to violate rules that prohibit the announcement of 
referendum results before the votes are officially counted. 
Carrasquero told reporters August 9 that the CNE, "will not 
hesitate to activate the legal mechanisms and punish those 
responsible."  According to the CNE regulations any 
television or radio channel transmitting referendum results 
in violation of the law is subject to having its signal cut 
or closed.  Carrasquero reminded reporters that the CNE is 
the institution responsible for counting the votes and 
announcing the results of the referendum.   Carrasquero 
asserted that the Coordinadora "announcement was made to 
create unease and restlessness so that next Sunday there will 
be disorder and the authority of the CNE will be in 
question." 
 
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Violence in Caracas Repeated 
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3. (U) Supporters of President Hugo Chavez attacked 
opposition campaign workers when they set up information 
booths at a public square in downtown Caracas August 9.  The 
National Guard and Military Police intervened, but the Chavez 
supporters nonetheless succeeded in destroying the opposition 
awning and burned opposition campaign materials.  The Chavez 
supporters also later attacked an adjacent municipal 
government building, seizing the flag and throwing objects at 
the building.  Opposition deputy Julio Borges (Primero 
Justicia) said the violence was an isolate incident, and that 
the referendum campaign was proceeding in large part 
peacefully. 
 
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Fingerprint Machines Being Tested 
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4. (U) The CNE moved up its test of the fingerprint machines 
to August 10 and 11 to test the efficiency of changes made to 
the network system.  Carlos Silva, a CNE technician, told 
reporters the fingerprint machines exceeded expectations and 
proved much faster and easier to used than predicted during 
the August 10 simulation.  Organization of American States 
(OAS) chief observer Edgardo Ries told Poloff August 10 the 
OAS computer specialist Celio Santos was satisfied with the 
capacity of the fingerprint system.  While Santos said the 
 
system was technically capable of carrying out the task, he 
admitted it could be used to slow down the process depending 
on how it is used. 
 
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OAS Keeping Low Profile 
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5. (C) OAS chief observer Ries and told Poloff August 10 the 
observer mission is proceeding normally.  Ries said the OAS 
had avoided most of the CNE's strict rules for international 
observers through quiet negotiation and accommodation of the 
CNE's bureaucratic requirements.  Ries said the OAS would 
have 57 observers in the field on referendum day, including 
five observers sent separately by the Government of Spain. 
He said the OAS observers will have freedom of movement 
during the referendum and will not participate in the CNE's 
official observer program.  Ries said the rules prohibit 
observers from performing a quick count, but the OAS would 
perform an informal check of results for internal use. 
Gustavo Nogueira, a Brazilian diplomat working for OAS 
mission chief Ambassador Valter Pecly, said the mission 
expected to have access to the totalization process at the 
CNE after polls close.  Nogueira said Pecly's comments to the 
press, prohibited by the rules, thus far had not been 
challenged by the CNE because Pecly's comments were positive. 
 
 
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Canadian Ambassador Comments on Observation Missions 
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6. (C) At the Ambassador's residence on August 9, Canadian 
Ambassador Allan Culham described the current international 
observers' participation in the referendum as an "act of 
faith."  He said they could help ensure a fair process even 
though they are under restrictions that fall below the norm 
of what observers are permitted to do.  Culham said he 
understands why the EU decided not to observe, but he 
believes the decision by the OAS to participate is the right 
one.  He also expressed regret that the international 
community never dealt with OAS mission coordinator Fernando 
Jaramillo's report regarding the fraud/irregularities in the 
administration of the signature collection and repair 
processes.  Culham was the only ambassador resident in 
Caracas to participate as an international observer of the 
signature collection and repair processes with the OAS 
mission. 
 
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Cautious Optimism from the Opposition 
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7. (U) Primero Justicia Secretary General Jose Luis Mejias 
told Poloff August 9 the opposition would win the referendum, 
but by a small enough margin that the GOV might employ fraud 
to steal the election.  Mejias said Chavez's rise in the 
polls had peaked, according to the Coordinadora's daily 
tracking poll.  The poll has shown the winner flip-flopping 
in a 46-44 race among registered voters, with 10 percent 
still undecided.  Mejias said there are four evenly split 
categories represented in the undecided:  1) those who refuse 
to answer, probably due to fear (Mejias said these are 
probably "Yes" votes); 2) those who really do not intend to 
vote; 3) those who will vote with the perceived winner; and 
4) those who really are undecided and looking at the 
positions of both sides.  Mejias said the Coordinadora had 
failed with this last group of voters, making the race very 
tight.  He estimated that the race would be decided by 
300,000 - 400,000 votes, which makes the undecided voters 
critical.  Of course, he admitted, the GOV could still use 
fraud to close the margin.  He said mobilization will be the 
key to winning, and if at least eight million voters turn 
out, he predicted the opposition would win. 
 
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MVR Deputy Certain of a Chavez Win 
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8. (C) Movimiento Quinta Republica (MVR) Deputy Calixto 
Ortega is "100% certain" that Chavez will win the referendum 
due to the recent polling data, the success of their events, 
the desperation of the opposition, and current economic 
growth in Venezuela.  Ortega told Poloffs August 9 that 
winning the street is very important in Venezuelan politics, 
and the massive pro-government march August 8 proved that the 
"NO" campaign has won on that score.  Of the 14 million 
registered voters, Ortega believes 20-30% will abstain, 
leaving approximately 10 million voters in the referendum. 
He believes 3.7 million will vote "Si" to recall Chavez and 
between 5-6 million will vote "No" to maintain Chavez in 
office.  Although most opposition supporters think they will 
win, Ortega said, there are some opposition politicians who 
know Chavez will win but can't admit it for political 
reasons. 
 
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National Assembly Grills CANTV President 
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9. (C) CANTV President Gustavo Roosen went before a special 
commission of the National Assembly August 9 to discuss his 
company's handling of the automated voting for the 
referendum.  At a dinner at the Ambassador's residence later 
that night, Roosen said he testified for six hours on trumped 
up accusations of the bias of CANTV in favor of the "Si" 
campaign.  According to Roosen, the Chavistas assert a USG - 
CIA link to the company by virtue of Verizon's 28% share in 
the company.  Chavez supporters believe that because so many 
CANTV employees signed to petition for the recall referendum, 
CANTV will attempt to manipulate the vote.  Other Chavistas, 
he said, believe the results could be manipulated by remote 
control satellite messages "as was done by INTESA in its 
strike sabotage of PDVSA."  Roosen said he was asked ignorant 
questions and overwhelmed the deputies with information. 
Planted questions by opposition legislators, however, were 
knowledgeable ones.  Roosen believed the point of the hearing 
was to create a "political floor" to allow Chavez to 
"intervene" in CANTV ahead of the vote, if he wanted to.  The 
congressional committee subsequently told Roosen that they 
had backed down from taking any kind of action, and the 
hearing closed without any specific finding. 
 
Shapiro 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02563 - CONFIDENTIAL