US embassy cable - 04MADRID3022

UNCLAS MADRID 003022 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CVIS, KFRD, CMGT, CU, SP 
SUBJECT: CUBAN VALIDATION STUDY RESULTS FROM MADRID 
 
1.  (U)  SUMMARY.  Embassy Madrid wanted to examine overstay 
rates of applicants issued visas for tourist travel to the 
United States.  Because of the wealth of information 
available on Cuban applicants, the Cuban community's travel 
patterns were studied.  Post initiated a validation study to 
determine the reliability of adjudication decisions for Cuban 
tourist visas.  Eighty-seven Cubans who were interviewed 
between December 2002 and May 2003 were contacted to see if 
they had returned from their trip or if they had overstayed 
in the United States.  Fifty-eight of the Cubans contacted 
returned from their trips without incident.  When confirmed 
overstayers are added to likely overstayers, there was an 
overstay rate of 26.4 percent of all applicants in the study. 
 There is no exact profile of a typical overstayer, as ages 
ranged from 6 to 86, and came from all regions in Spain. 
Results were both surprising and discouraging.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U)  Embassy Madrid was interested in finding out 
overstay rates of different nationalities that were granted 
tourist visas.  Because of the wealth of information 
available on Cuban applicants due to increased security 
procedures, the Cuban community in Spain was selected for 
study.  All Cuban visa applicants interviewed between 
December 1, 2002, and May 31, 2003, were included in the 
study.  Phone interviews with the applicants were conducted 
in February 2004, giving all visa recipients sufficient time 
to visit the United States and return to Spain.  (Cuban 
tourist visas are generally one-entry visas over a six-month 
period.) 
 
3.  (U)  Embassy Madrid's study was a validation study of 
visa issuances, but it was not set-up in the traditional 
sense of a non-immigrant visa (NIV) validation study.  For 
this study, Embassy Madrid validated only Cuban visa 
applicants that had received tourist visas.  Applicants that 
were refused tourist visas in the initial interviews were not 
considered in the study.  For this period post adjudicated 
215 Cuban visa cases and had a forty-seven percent refusal 
rate for Cubans. 
 
4.  (U)  All eighty-seven Cubans who interviewed for tourist 
visas between December 2002 and May 2003 were included in the 
study.  Study interviewers used telephone numbers supplied by 
the applicants.  Spanish home numbers were phoned first.  If 
a Spanish home number was unreachable, the interviewer then 
dialed mobile telephone numbers, work telephone numbers, and 
directory assistance.  If an applicant was unreachable after 
several attempts, U.S. information provided on application 
forms was used to contact friends and relatives of the 
applicant who live in the U.S.  Sixty-nine of the Cuban 
applicants were reached.  Eleven of the sixty-nine Cubans 
reached had confirmed overstays.  Fifty-eight of the Cubans 
completed their travel without incident.  Eighteen of the 
applicants were unreachable.  Many of the unreachable 
applicants provided work phone numbers that were either 
non-existent, or numbers where current employers and workers 
had never heard of the applicant.  Others provided 
point-of-contact information in the U.S. or phone numbers 
that did not exist.  Phone numbers can change over time, and 
phones frequently get disconnected, but post believes that at 
a minimum, twelve of these eighteen applicants provided 
inaccurate information and are probable overstays.  When 
these twelve cases are added to the eleven confirmed 
overstays, this makes an estimated overstay rate of 26.4 
percent.  This estimated overstay rate is only for people 
granted tourist visas. 
 
5.  (U)  It is difficult to determine an exact profile of the 
typical Cuban applicant who overstays their visa.  Fifty-five 
percent of overstay applicants were married, while forty-five 
percent were single.  Ages varied from 6 to 86.  Some of the 
applicants who overstayed neglected to mention detailed 
travel plans, but others included very detailed plans. 
Overstayers and likely overstayers came from all regions of 
Spain with slightly more representation in Madrid, Barcelona, 
and the Canary Islands, areas of large Cuban populations. 
 
6.  (U)  Results were both surprising and discouraging, 
considering Embassy Madrid already refused a high number of 
Cubans during the time period used in this study. 
Adjudicating officers have found the study useful, and post 
has already incorporated the study's findings into the 
interviewing of Cuban nationals. 
MANZANARES