US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2547

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002547 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 9 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reason 1.5(d) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) director Jorge 
Rodriguez and Valter Pecly Moreira, head of the Organization 
of American States (OAS) observation mission in Venezuela, 
told reporters the audit of 150 electronic voting machines on 
August 8 was a success.  Also on August 8, Chavez supporters 
and opponents held large and peaceful campaign rallies in 
Caracas.  Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza said the 
opposition Coordinadora Democratica would begin publicizing 
referendum result trends at 3 pm on August 15 and would 
continue with hourly updates.  CNE director Rodriguez filed a 
criminal complaint charging that the opposition committed 
fraud in the November signature drive.  The opposition 
primary to select an opposition presidential candidate now 
appears to be slated for September 5, according to Sumate. 
End Summary. 
 
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Audit Declared Successful 
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2. (U) Jorge Rodriguez of the National Electoral Council 
(CNE) announced that the technical audit performed August 8 
on 150 electronic voting machines was a success and had a 
zero percent error rate.  Rodriguez declared the data 
transmission through the phone lines was also successful and 
had no inconsistencies.  Valter Pecly Moreira, head of the 
Organization of American States (OAS) observation mission in 
Venezuela, told reporters that he was satisfied with the 
results of the audit.  The technical teams from the 
opposition's Coordinadora Democratica and President Hugo 
Chavez's Comando Maisanta both withheld judgment, saying only 
that the process was not yet complete. 
 
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Rally Sunday 
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3. (U) Chavez supporters and opponents held large and 
peaceful campaign rallies on August 8 in Caracas.  Speaking 
at the "No" rally, President Chavez urged everyone to vote, 
and vote early, on August 15 regardless inconveniences like 
bad weather and lack of public transportation.  Chavez denied 
there was any fear factor leading up to the referendum vote, 
saying that for the first time no one was afraid to say what 
he thought.  Chavez said that the opposition had created the 
appearance of fear with the help of the media. 
Vice-president Jose Vincente Rangel declared the pro-GOV 
event a success, challenging the opposition to produce even 
one third as many supporters for a public gathering.  The 
opposition held a concert/rally also attended by thousands at 
three points in the eastern part of Caracas.  Speaking at the 
opposition's event, governor of Miranda state Enrique 
Mendoza, assured voters that a "Si" win was inevitable and 
urged voters to vote early to avoid any sabotage attempts by 
Chavistas. The Chavista University student federation sent 
100 people to demonstrate peacefully outside the US. Embassy 
August 8.  The leader accused the US of sending troops to 
Venezuela.  The DCM rejected this claim and stressed the US 
supported the referendum process. 
 
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Announcing Results 
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4. (U) During the opposition rally on August 8, Miranda State 
Governor Enrique Mendoza announced the Coordinadora 
Democratica would begin publicizing referendum result trends 
at 3 pm on August 15 and would continue with hourly updates. 
He assured those at the event the decision did not violate 
the CNE agreement that only prohibits announcing numbers to 
the media.  Mendoza said that the opposition would find a way 
 
of legally informing the people early so Chavez and his 
supporters could not steal the vote.  Rodriguez leveled 
personal attacks against Coordinadora Democratica leader 
Enrique Mendoza and Accion Democratica (AD) leader Henry 
Ramos for comments the two made questioning the objectivity 
of Rodriguez and the CNE. Vice-president Rangel told the 
assembled diplomatic corps on August 9 that the GOV would 
disrupt any television channel that would broadcast Mendoza's 
3 pm update. The law, Rangel said, is clear. The election 
results may not be commented upon before the polls close. 
 
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Accusations 
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5. (U) CNE Director Rodriguez presented a criminal complaint 
to the Attorney General's office alleging the opposition 
perpetrated fraud during the November 2003 signature drives 
to petition for the recall of President Chavez.  Rodriguez 
claimed that the fingerprints of more than 10,000 people 
appear multiple times in the petition forms.  Rodriguez 
claimed that the immigration office (ONIDEX) had matched some 
of the fingerprints with their records.  A Chavez supporter 
appearing with Rodriguez at the Attorney General's office 
claimed the alleged fraud amounted to 250,000 - 300,000 bogus 
signatures. 
 
6. (U) Rodriguez further suggested that a car fire in his 
sister's parking garage August 6 was purposefully set to 
intimidate him and his family.  Coincidentally, authorities 
discovered a Smartmatic voting machine in the vehicle next to 
the one that burned.  Smartmatic officials told the press the 
machine was in the rightful possession of Smartmatic's 
training coordinator for Caracas and that the machine carried 
only test software. 
 
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Missed Opportunities 
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7. (C) A political consultant advising the Coordinadora 
Democratica told the Ambassador the opposition missed several 
opportunities in its campaign.  The consultant said the 
Coordinadora convinced itself that is was sufficient to have 
Chavez run against Chavez despite the polling data to the 
contrary.   The opposition never campaigned to the undecided 
voters, for example, only to those already committed. 
Meanwhile, the economy is improving, Chavez's "missions" are 
very popular, and Chavez is running a good campaign.  The 
opposition, according to the consultant, could win, but the 
vote would be close.  So close, in fact, that it is within 
the margin that Chavez and the CNE could steal. 
 
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Sumate Moderately Optimistic 
---------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Sumate representative Maria Corina Machado told 
PolCouns August 8 she is moderately optimistic that the 
opposition will succeed in recalling President Chavez August 
15, but is concerned that opposition political leaders may 
bungle the victory a la the Carmona debacle.  Machado said 
the problems with persons being relocated from one voting 
center to another without their knowledge was of minor 
proportions.  Of greater concern, she said, was the 
intimidation factor, especially related to the unresolved 
issue of the use of fingerprinting machines.  Sumate found 
that among voters in the lower economic strata there is fear 
"based on the myth of the machines' capabilities" that the 
government will indeed learn how people voted, according to 
Machado. 
 
9.  (C) Machado said the opposition may have the rules for a 
primary to choose its presidential candidate before August 
15.  She said four former electoral council presidents had 
agreed to form a pseudo electoral council that would oversee 
the process.  The opposition is now looking at September 5 as 
the date for the primary.  Machado recognized that the date 
 
 
would theoretically leave a candidate almost no time to 
campaign if the CNE stuck to the 30-day post referendum vote 
timeframe. 
-------------------------------------------- 
Possible Outcome Has Violence Under Control 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) Movimiento Quinto Republica (MVR) Deputy Roberto 
Quintero from Zulia state told PolOff on August 9 that 
President Chavez would accept the results of the Presidential 
recall referendum.  He said many people had advised Chavez to 
claim fraud and reject the referendum after the signature 
affirmation process, but that Chavez had rejected this 
advice.  Quintero said that there were elements in the MVR 
that were not democratic, ranging from communist to fascist 
in his view, but that Chavez himself was committed to a 
democratic project. 
 
11. (C) Quintero said the organizational weakness of the MVR 
in Zulia had allowed radical elements to take a leading role. 
 The violence in Maracaibo on August 5, he said, was an 
attack by Chavista radicals against the local Maisanta 
offices.  Quintero insisted that violent groups were a small 
minority in Chavismo, and that they would not be able to act 
during the referendum, due to the presence of the army in the 
streets. 
Shapiro 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02547 - CONFIDENTIAL