US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2541

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002541 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: LEGISLATORS REHASH RECALL AT BOSTON GROUP MEETING 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for reasons 1.4 
(B) and (D) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Both pro-GOV and pro-opposition National Assembly 
Deputies meeting with Codel Ballenger August 3 predicted 
victory in the August 15 referendum to unseat President Hugo 
Chavez.  According to various deputies, participation of 
uncommitted voters, particularly in poor and rural areas, 
will make or break the recall.  Legislators from both camps 
expressed concern about violence following the referendum, 
but many discounted widespread, systematic violence.  Pro-GOV 
Deputy Hector Vargas told Emboff the GOV had a renewed 
interest in the Boston Group based on hopes for improved 
US-Venezuelan relations following the recall and US 
presidential elections.  Vargas claimed a group of 
legislators complained about the incarceration of opposition 
Baruta Mayor Henrique Capriles Radonsky, but were rebuffed by 
GOV leaders.  End Summary. 
 
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Ballenger Honored for Boston Group Efforts 
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2. (C) Members of the Boston Group and the Ambassador honored 
Rep. Cass Ballenger for his work creating and sustaining the 
group of US and Venezuelan legislators the Residence August 
3.  The Ambassador gave Rep. Ballenger the flag that flew at 
the Embassy that day and praised his efforts to build bridges 
between the US and Venezuelan and between the political 
parties of both countries.  Representatives Bill Delahunt and 
Gregory Meeks, and National Assembly Deputy Calixto Ortega 
also spoke. 
 
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Recall Speculation Runs Rampant 
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3. (C) Speaking with Emboff, Pro-GOV Deputy Hector Vargas 
predicted a relatively easy win for President Hugo Chavez 
against the August 15 recall referendum.  He acknowledged, 
however, Chavez supporters "could" lose his home state of 
Zulia.  He told Emboff that even with an "unprecedented" low 
25 percent abstention rate, the opposition would not be able 
to mobilize enough voters to remove Chavez.  Although he 
conceded the opposition has the numbers "on paper" to defeat 
Chavez, he predicted they would fail to motivate them due to 
lack of a clear, symbolic leader and the indecisiveness 
inherent in an organization that relies on consensus.  He 
claimed this contrasted favorably for the GOV with Chavez's 
strong, single-minded leadership in the minds of uncommitted 
Venezuelans. 
 
4. (C) Opposition Deputy Leopoldo Martinez told Emboff he was 
concerned voters in poor neighborhoods might sit the recall 
out because the opposition has not done enough to offer them 
a clear alternative to Chavez.  He said the GOV's well-funded 
campaign blitzkrieg is engulfing voters in poor areas with 
pro-GOV banners, songs, and events, making a pro-Chavez 
outcome seem inevitable and the risks of voting against the 
GOV appear pointless.  He added that a less visible GOV 
campaign is underway using neighbors to intimidate voters, 
insinuating that they should vote to keep Chavez "if they 
know what's good for them."  He complained that the 
opposition was "not doing enough to reassure these people" 
that they will be protected or that they have a reason to 
participate. 
 
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Wide-Spread Violence Unlikely, Says Opposition Deputy 
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5. (C) Opposition Deputy Angel Vera agreed with GOV-allied 
Saul Ortega and several other deputies who expressed concern 
about, but ultimately discounted, the possibility of 
wide-spread violence following the recall.  Vera said 
whatever the outcome of the recall, the military could be 
trusted to keep the peace.  Although top leadership was 
firmly pro-Chavez, he asserted the rank and file represented 
a broad cross-section of Venezuelan society.  Because 
Chavista elements are present, there will likely be isolated 
 
examples of military heavy-handedness, but these will not be 
representative of the larger situation, which will be 
peaceful.  He claimed the opposition largely underestimates 
the military's sense of professionalism and its underlying 
disposition to stay out of politics. 
 
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How Venezuela-Cuba Relationship Is "Good" for US 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
6. (C) Deputy Vargas later criticized the US "fascination" 
with the GOV's relationship with Cuba, claiming it was no 
more important to the GOV than its relationship with Colombia 
or any of its neighbors.  He also proposed that the US should 
encourage the Venezuela-Cuba relationship, as Venezuelan is 
"having more of an influence on Cuba" than Cuba is having on 
Venezuela.  He said the thousands of Cuban professionals sent 
to Venezuela to participate in GOV social programs (largely 
Cuban doctors participating the "Barrio Adentro" medical 
program) are exposed to US values and viewpoints through 
contact with Venezuelans, and that the expatriates acted as a 
sort of Trojan Horse for US interests upon returning to the 
island. 
 
7. (C) Pro-GOV Deputy Luis Acuna blasted the Venezuelan 
medical establishment for  complaining that the GOV was 
supporting the "Barrio Adentro" program at the expense of 
medical clinics.  Acuna asserted medicine shortages and 
under-funding of clinics was a chronic problem that predates 
the Chavez administration and complained that only 29 of 
13,000 doctors participating the "Barrio Adentro" program 
were Venezuelan.  "Venezuelan doctors do not want to work if 
they cannot have air conditioning and cable TV," Acuna said. 
 
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GOV Can't Back Away From Capriles Case 
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8. (C) Vargas also expressed dismay at the imprisonment of 
Baruta Mayor Henrique Capriles Radonsky, a "friend" and 
colleague when both men were deputies in the 90s.  According 
to Vargas, a handful of GOV legislators complained to the 
prosecution about the incarceration, but were slapped down by 
GOV leadership.  He lamented that the case was out of control 
and that it would be difficult for the GOV to back away from 
it without losing face.  Although he admitted the 
incarceration may have made a martyr out Capriles and boosted 
his support, he predicted that would not matter "when he is 
convicted," since convicts cannot run for office. 
 
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Renewed Interest in the Boston Group 
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9. (C) Saul Ortega told Emboff that GOV-allied legislators 
were taking a renewed interest in the Boston Group because of 
potential new directions in political leadership in both 
countries following the recall referendum in Venezuela and 
the presidential elections in the US.  He emphasized the deep 
Venezuelan social and economic ties with the US that will 
endure "regardless of who the (Venezuelan) president is." 
Ortega claimed the GOV was hoping a new "respectful" and 
"less interventionist" US foreign policy would emerge toward 
Latin America, even if the current administration stayed on. 
 
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Comment 
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10. (C) This event was symbolic of the importance of the 
Boston Group and vindication of the efforts of Boston Group 
architect Cass Ballenger.  Getting pro-GOV and opposition 
legislators together in a social setting is always desirable, 
especially less than two weeks before the polarizing recall 
vote.  Although legislators from both sides confidently 
predicted an outcome in their favor, they also seemed to be 
thinking beyond August 15 to efforts to constrain violence. 
The underlying message: the aftermath of the recall may be 
more divisive and potentially violent than the recall itself. 
Shapiro 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02541 - CONFIDENTIAL