US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2540

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002540 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
LIMA ALSO FOR A/S NORIEGA 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 6 
 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor 
for Reason 1.4(d) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) unanimously 
agreed to go to a manual vote if the electronic voting 
machines fail August 15.  The CNE also finalized plans to 
audit the electronic voting machines on August 8. 
Unidentified persons attacked a pro-Chavez campaign office in 
Maracaibo August 5, and in Caracas Chavez supporters attacked 
government opponents as they attempted to set up a campaign 
point in a square in the capital.  Venezuelans who petitioned 
the CNE between July 24 and August 4 to correct the change of 
their voting location done without their consent by the 
electoral authorities will be allowed to vote manually August 
15, according to CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez.  The 
Coordinadora Democratica urged the CNE reconsider how to use 
fingerprint machines at voting centers because, among other 
things, the machines have an error rate of more than 2% and 
thus would disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of voters 
outright.  The ex-president of the Venezuelan Workers 
Confederation (CTV) Carlos Ortega said he returned from Costa 
Rica where he enjoyed political asylum to Venezuela because 
he is concerned about the August 15 referendum and wanted to 
join opposition efforts to oust President Hugo Chavez. 
Despite worries about Chavez performing small acts of fraud 
that are undetected, opposition leaders still feel confident 
that the "Si" will win on August 15.  End Summary. 
 
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Contingency Plan 
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2. (U) The National Electoral Council (CNE) unanimously 
agreed August 5 that if electronic voting machines failed 
August 15 and could not be repaired or substituted, the CNE 
would decide if voting center would go to a manual vote. 
Under the rules, the CNE technicians will have half an hour 
to fix failed machines.  If the machines cannot be fixed, the 
CNE has one hour to substitute the failed machine with one 
that works.  If after one hour and a half, the electronic 
voting machines are still not working, the CNE directors must 
decide if voting at the center will proceed manually.  CNE 
director Jorge Rodriguez reporters that on August 15, the CNE 
directorate will be in permanent session to attend to 
problems that arise immediately.  If any problems arise with 
the transmission of data or audit after the election, the 
removable memory drives of the machine will be transported to 
CNE headquarters with the escort of the armed force's Plan 
Republica. 
 
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Agreeing to the Audit 
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3. (U) Rodriguez also announced August 5 that the CNE will 
audit 200 electronic voting machines on August 8 to ensure 
there is nothing inside the program that could modify the 
results of the August 15 referendum.  Technical experts from 
the opposition's Coordinadora Democratica and President Hugo 
Chavez's Comando Maisanta will participate.  If the CNE 
discovers inconsistencies between the preset number of votes 
for each machine and the audit results, it will announce a 
manual vote for referendum. 
 
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Violence 
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4. (U) Violence broke out in Caracas and Maracaibo on August 
5, according to press reports.  In Caracas' Plaza Candelaria, 
opposition supporters who were putting up a "Si" campaign 
booth said they were attacked by Chavez supports who 
reportedly were not from their neighborhood.  Four people 
were injured, but no one was killed.  The opposition 
 
supporters accused the National Guard of siding with the 
attackers and launching tear gas at the opposition booth 
while allowing Chavez supporters to fire upon the booth with 
guns.  A National Guard tank was installed and the military 
took over control of the plaza. 
 
5. (U) In Maracaibo, unidentified persons attacked a 
pro-Chavez campaign office while Minister of Labor Maria 
Cristina Iglesias worked inside with other high-ranking 
Chavez supporters on the referendum campaign.  The government 
claims the attackers were opposition supporters, but local 
journalists report that the incident was a conflict between 
rival groups of Chavez supporters.  Iglesias dismissed the 
possibility that Chavez supporters were involved.  Four 
people where injured, one with a bullet wound in the chest, 
but no one was killed.  Amateur video footage broadcast on 
all-news channel Globovision showed a man coming out of the 
campaign offices armed with a sub-machine and minutes later 
another man interceding between two groups of people standing 
near the damaged cars parked outside the building.  The 
unknown attackers were heavily armed with machine guns. 
 
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Voters Go Manual 
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6. (U) Venezuelans who petitioned the CNE between July 24 and 
August 4 to correct the change of their voting location done 
without their consent by the electoral authorities will be 
allowed to vote manually August 15, according to Jorge 
Rodriguez of the CNE.  These voters will be allowed to vote 
at their original voting location, with their information 
will be included in supplementary notebooks provided to each 
voting centers on August 15.  Military personnel assigned to 
voting centers as part of Plan Republica will also vote by 
paper ballot, according to press reports.  The CNE estimates 
that about 30 people per voting table will vote manually 
because of the limits on the capacity of the voting machines. 
 To accommodate manual voting, the CNE ordered 30% of the 
electoral registry, approximately 4.5 million, paper ballots 
printed for August 15. 
 
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Fingerprint Machines 
--------------------- 
 
7. (U) The Coordinadora Democratica (CD) urged international 
observers to address with the CNE the issue of possible 
irregularities with the use of fingerprint machines.  CD 
representative Carlos Quiroz told reporters that taking at 
face value the statements by the purveyors of machines that 
they count a two percent error rate, using the machines would 
mean hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans would be 
disenfranchised randomly.  The CD used a legal study prepared 
by university rectors to back its position. 
 
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Union Leader Returns 
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8. (C) Venezuelan Workers Confederation (CTV) President 
Carlos Ortega told reporters via telephone that he returned 
to Venezuela because he is concerned about the August 15 
referendum and wanted to join opposition efforts to oust 
President Hugo Chavez.  Ortega, who did not disclose his 
location, faces charges of treason for his role in the 
two-month national strike from December 2002 to January 2003. 
 He was given political asylum in Costa Rica in 2003, but 
Costa Rican officials asked him to leave in March 2004 after 
he reportedly said he would return to Venezuela to work 
clandestinely to oust Chavez.  Costa Rican officials, 
according to press reports, confirmed Ortega departed the 
country July 30 but could not confirm his destination. 
Manuel Cova, the current Secretary General of CTV, told 
reporters that he had spoken with Ortega and could confirm 
that he was in Venezuela.  (Comment: We are convinced the 
Coordinadora Democratica did not approve of Ortega's move; 
 
his return only serves to remind voters of the failed 
2002-2003 strike. End Comment.) 
 
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It's the Little Things 
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9. (C) Fernando Martinez Mottola, member of Coordinadora 
Democratica, told Poloffs August 2 he is concerned that 
Chavez is committing small acts of fraud that are hard to 
criticize, but when aggregated amount to major 
irregularities.  His examples included the continuing 
incidents of threats against government employees, last 
minute changes in voting stations, the rumor that the 
fingerprint machines will allow the government to track 
votes, efforts to stymie international observer missions and 
the CNE's refusal to conduct an immediate audit.  Mottola 
said he is not very worried bout the voting machines 
themselves because he felt it would be hard to interfere with 
the data trnsmission, a sentiment Juan Fernandez of the 
oppsitions Petroleum People echoed in a conversation ith 
PolOff August 4. 
 
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Opposition Leaders Confident 
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10. (C) In meetings with the Ambassador August 4, former 
Carabobo State Governor Henrique Salas Roemer and Juan 
Fernandez were optimistic about the referendum.  Salas and 
Fernandez said Chavez's support peaked with the barrage of 
propaganda and will fall off some before the recall vote. 
Meanwhile, because of limited funds, the "Si" campaign has 
held back and has just begun to ramp up their efforts, which 
will result in a noticeable push as August 15 approaches. 
Second, the two opposition leaders questioned the validity of 
Venezuelan polls, asserting that some people are afraid to 
speak honestly for fear that the government or their 
neighbors might find out.  They feel that there are people on 
both sides who fall into this category, but that the majority 
are those who tell pollsters "No" but plan to vote "Yes." 
Shapiro 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02540 - CONFIDENTIAL