US embassy cable - 01HARARE2642

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002642 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 09/06/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR BULAWAYO MAYORAL VOTE AND TWO BY- 
ELECTIONS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.  REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) THE VOTERS OF BULAWAYO WILL CHOOSE A NEW MAYOR AND THE 
VOTERS OF MAKONI WEST A NEW MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT SEPTEMBER 8-9, 
WHILE CHIKOMBA WILL CHOOSE A SUCCESSOR TO THE LATE WAR VETERAN 
LEADER CHENJERAI "HITLER" HUNZVI IN A BY-ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR 
SEPTEMBER 22-23.  THE PRE-ELECTION PERIOD HAS BEEN MOSTLY PEACEFUL 
IN BULAWAYO, ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN ACCUSATIONS OF VOTE-BUYING 
AND OF PADDING OF THE VOTERS ROLL.  THE MDC IS EXPECTED TO WIN, 
BUT THE KEY ISSUE IS WHETHER THE OPPOSITION PARTY CAN MAINTAIN ITS 
HUGE MARGIN OF VICTORY FROM THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION 
-- IN WHICH IT WON 160,000 VOTES TO ZANU-PF'S 20,000 -- AND THUS 
PROJECT A SENSE OF POLITICAL MOMENTUM.  IN MAKONI WEST, LOCATED ON 
THE BORDER BETWEEN THE MDC STRONGHOLD OF MANICALAND PROVINCE AND 
ZANU-PF'S HEARTLAND OF MASHONALAND EAST, THE RULING PARTY HAS 
EMPLOYED TACTICS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, ALTHOUGH APPARENTLY 
ON A MORE LIMITED SCALE THAN IN PREVIOUS BY-ELECTIONS IN BINDURA, 
BIKITA WEST, AND MARONDERA.  THE MDC HAS BEEN FORCED TO CONDUCT A 
LOW-KEY DOOR-TO-DOOR CAMPAIGN, AND HAD CONSIDERED SEEKING A COURT- 
ORDERED DELAY UNTIL RESTORATION OF THE RULE OF LAW.  UNTIL THE 
LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE CAMPAIGN IN CHIKOMBA HAS BEEN MOSTLY FREE 
OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, LIKELY BECAUSE HUNZVI WON BY ALMOST 
9,000 VOTES AND ZANU-PF DOES NOT FEEL PARTICULARLY THREATENED 
THERE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
BULAWAYO 
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                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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2.  (C) THE RUN-UP TO THE SEPTEMBER 8-9 BULAWAYO MAYORAL ELECTION 
HAS BEEN MOSTLY PEACEFUL AND THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) HAS BEEN ABLE TO CAMPAIGN FREELY.  ZANU-PF 
POLITICAL COMMISSAR -- AND POLITBURO MEMBER -- SIKHANYISO NDLOVU 
TOLD POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF THAT HE AND FORMER ARMY COMMANDER 
SOLOMON MUJURU HAD ORDERED JOSEPH CHINOTIMBA AND HIS MILITIA TO 
STAY AWAY FROM THE BULAWAYO CAMPAIGN, PRESUMABLY BECAUSE THE 
PARTY'S USUAL TACTICS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION WOULD ONLY 
BACKFIRE IN MATABELELAND.  THAT SAID, HOWEVER, SENIOR MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) OFFICIALS EXPRESSED CONCERN TO US ABOUT 
TWO TACTICS BEING EMPLOYED BY ZANU-PF IN THE BULAWAYO CAMPAIGN. 
ACCORDING TO MDC VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA AND ELECTIONS 
DIRECTOR PAUL THEMBA NYATHI, THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE 
VOTERS ROLL IS BEING PADDED WITH ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, ALTHOUGH THEY 
DID NOT YET HAVE A SENSE OF THE SCOPE OF THAT EFFORT.   THAT 
CONCERN HAS BEEN EXACERBATED BY THE FACT THAT THE VOTERS ROLL HAD 
NOT YET BEEN MADE AVAILABLE FOR THE REQUISITE PUBLIC INSPECTION, 
NINE DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION.  IN ADDITION, RULING PARTY 
HEAVYWEIGHTS SUCH AS INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, LOCAL 
GOVERNMENT MINISTER IGNATIUS CHOMBO, AND YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, 
GENDER, AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION DEPUTY MINISTER SHUVAI MAHOFA ARE 
HANDING OUT LARGE AMOUNTS OF CASH AT POLITICAL RALLIES.  ALTHOUGH 
SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF WOMEN HAVE BEEN ATTENDING THESE RALLIES AND 
ACCEPTING THE HANDOUTS, IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT IT WILL AFFECT THE 
WAY THEY VOTE. 
 
3.  (C) BOTH ZANU-PF AND THE MDC HAVE CHOSEN AS THEIR CANDIDATES 
TECHNOCRATS WITH LONG RECORDS OF SERVICE TO THE CITY.  THE MDC'S 
JAPHET NDABENI NCUBE HAS SERVED AS BULAWAYO'S DIRECTOR OF HOUSING 
FOR 15 YEARS, WHILE GEORGE MLILO FROM ZANU-PF HAS BEEN THE CITY'S 
WATER ENGINEER OF LONGSTANDING.  ACCORDING TO THEMBA NYATHI, MLILO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02642  01 OF 02  071102Z 
HAS BEEN TRYING TO DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM ZANU-PF, REGULARLY URGING 
VOTERS AT PUBLIC RALLIES TO CAST THEIR BALLOTS FOR THE CANDIDATE 
OF THEIR CHOOSING, REGARDLESS OF THE PARTY THEY REPRESENT.  MOST 
OBSERVERS AGREE, HOWEVER, THAT THE PARTY LABEL WILL CARRY MUCH 
MORE WEIGHT WITH VOTERS THAN THE CREDENTIALS OF THE INDIVIDUAL 
CANDIDATES. 
 
4.  (C) BULAWAYO, WHERE RESIDENTS HAVE LONG BEEN BRUTALIZED AND 
MARGINALIZED BY THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT, IS THE HEART OF MDC 
TERRITORY.  IN THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, THE 
OPPOSITION PARTY WON 160,000 VOTES IN BULAWAYO TO ZANU-PF'S 
20,000.  FEW OBSERVERS DOUBT THAT THE MDC WILL WIN THE MAYORAL 
RACE, BUT THEY POINT OUT THAT THE KEY ISSUE IS THE MARGIN OF 
VICTORY.  A LARGE MARGIN FOR THE MDC WOULD CREATE A SENSE OF 
MOMENTUM FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2002 AND LIKELY WILL 
EMBOLDEN NERVOUS MDC SUPPORTERS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY TO 
COME OUT ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DAY.  A MARGIN SMALLER THAN THAT 
WHICH OBTAINED IN JUNE 2000 WOULD PROVIDE AMMUNITION FOR ZANU-PF'S 
CONTENTION THAT IT HAS MADE INROADS IN URBAN AREAS SINCE THE 
PARLIAMENTARY VOTE.  THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BULAWAYO IS AN 
EXPECTATIONS GAME, AND A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED VICTORY FOR THE MDC 
WILL BE SPUN BY THE RULING PARTY AS A SIGN OF ITS IMPROVED 
POLITICAL FORTUNES.  THEMBA NYATHI ADMITTED AS MUCH WHEN HE TOLD 
US THAT THE MDC'S BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN BULAWAYO IS OVERCOMING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6014 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02642  02 OF 02  071102Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-00    L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /009W 
                  ------------------1BFD07  071103Z /38 
P 071048Z SEP 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9666 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002642 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 09/06/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ZI 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR BULAWAYO MAYORAL VOTE AND TWO BY- 
ELECTIONS 
 
VOTER COMPLACENCY AND GETTING ITS SUPPORTERS TO THE POLLS. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02642  02 OF 02  071102Z 
 
MAKONI WEST 
----------- 
 
5.  (C) THE BY-ELECTION IN MAKONI WEST, ALSO SCHEDULED FOR 
SEPTEMBER 8-9, WILL FILL THE SEAT LEFT VACANT BY THE DEATH OF THE 
LATE MINISTER OF DEFENSE MOVEN MAHACHI.  MAHACHI WON 55% OF THE 
VOTE IN JUNE 2000, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH WAY THE 
ELECTION WILL GO THIS TIME.  MAKONI WEST IS LOCATED IN THE 
STRONGLY PRO-MDC MANICALAND PROVINCE, BUT IT IS ON THE BORDER WITH 
MASHONALAND EAST, A ZANU-PF STRONGHOLD. 
 
6.  (C) WE UNDERSTAND FROM SEVERAL SOURCES THAT ZANU-PF'S WAR 
VETERANS AND PARTY THUGS HAVE ESTABLISHED AT LEAST FIVE BASE CAMPS 
IN THE CONSTITUENCY TO COORDINATE A CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE AND 
INTIMIDATION AGAINST SUSPECTED OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS. TIM SHEEHY, 
WHO WILL HEAD THE EUROPEAN UNION'S NEW ELECTION SUPPORT UNIT IN 
HARARE, MET WITH A NUMBER OF LOCAL RESIDENTS IN MAKONI WEST ON 
SEPTEMBER 5.  DURING HIS VISIT, SHEEHY WAS TOLD BY A PROMINENT 
CLERGYMAN THAT THE CAMPAIGN HAS BECOME MORE VIOLENT IN RECENT 
WEEKS, AND THAT MDC SUPPORTERS HAVE BEEN THE VICTIMS IN THE 
OVERWHELMING NUMBER OF INCIDENTS.  THE HOUSE OF THE CONSTITUENCY'S 
MDC CHAIRMAN WAS BURNED DOWN, MANY RESIDENTS HAVE BEEN FORCED BY 
WAR VETERANS TO ATTEND ALL-NIGHT POLITICAL RALLIES, AND TEACHERS 
AT SOME SCHOOLS HAVE BEEN THREATENED WITH PHYSICAL HARM FOR 
ALLEGEDLY SUPPORTING THE OPPOSITION.  THE CLERGYMAN ALSO EXPRESSED 
CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE PADDING OF THE VOTERS ROLL, NOTING REPORTS 
THAT VOTERS CONTINUE TO BE REGISTERED, LONG AFTER THE LEGAL PERIOD 
FOR DOING SO ENDED.  IN ITS WRITTEN PRE-ELECTION REPORT, THE 
ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK -- WHICH PROVIDES DOMESTIC 
MONITORS AT ALL POLLING STATIONS -- DESCRIBED THE CONSTITUENCY AS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02642  02 OF 02  071102Z 
"TENSE, WITH REPORTS THAT INTIMIDATION AND VOTE-BUYING ARE RIFE." 
 
7.  (C) MDC ELECTIONS DIRECTOR THEMBA-NYATHI TOLD US THAT, AS A 
RESULT OF THE CLIMATE OF INTIMIDATION, HIS PARTY HAS HAD TO 
CONDUCT A LOW-KEY DOOR-TO-DOOR CAMPAIGN.  THE MDC LEADERSHIP HAD 
CONSIDERED ASKING THE COURT TO DELAY THE ELECTION INDEFINITELY, 
UNTIL SUCH TIME AS THE RULE OF LAW WAS RESTORED, BUT ULTIMATELY 
DECIDED AGAINST THAT COURSE OF ACTION. 
 
CHIKOMBA 
-------- 
 
8.  (C) A SECOND BY-ELECTION IS SCHEDULED IN THE MASHONALAND EAST 
CONSTITUENCY OF CHIKOMBA SEPTEMBER 22-33 TO FILL THE SEAT LEFT 
VACANT BY LATE WAR VETERAN LEADER CHENJERAI "HITLER" HUNZVI. 
SINCE HUNZVI WON 65 PERCENT OF THE BALLOTS CAST -- BY 7,000 VOTES 
-- IN JUNE 2000.  GIVEN THAT MARGIN OF VICTORY AND CHIKOMBA'S 
LOCATION IN THE ZANU-PF HEARTLAND OF MASHONALAND EAST, THE RULING 
PARTY LIKELY WILL RETAIN THIS SEAT.  THE CAMPAIGN HAS, 
SURPRISINGLY, BEEN MOSTLY PEACEFUL, THANKS TO THE INSISTENCE BY 
ZANU-PF'S PROVINCIAL CHAIRMAN THAT HE WOULD NOT TOLERATE THE 
TACTICS USED BY THE PARTY IN OTHER BY-ELECTIONS.  IN ADDITION, WE 
UNDERSTAND THAT HUNZVI'S PREDECESSOR IN CHIKOMBA, SOLOMON MUJURU 
-- WHO IS A MEMBER OF THE RULING PARTY POLITBURO AND A RETIRED ARMY 
COMMANDER WHO RETAINS THE LOYALTIES OF MANY ACTIVE DUTY OFFICERS 
-- HAS BEEN WORKING BEHIND THE SCENES TO ENSURE THAT THE PRE- 
ELECTION PERIOD IS PEACEFUL.  ZANU-PF COULD HAVE COME TO THE 
CONCLUSION THAT IT HAD CHIKOMBA IN THE BAG SO IT COULD AFFORD TO RUN A 
PEACEFUL CAMPAIGN.  DURING THE PAST WEEK, HOWEVER, WE HAVE HEARD 
REPORTS OF SOME VIOLENT CLASHES BETWEEN MDC AND ZANU-PF 
SUPPORTERS. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02642  02 OF 02  071102Z 
 
ELECTION OBSERVATION 
-------------------- 
 
9.  (C) EMBASSY OFFICERS PLAN TO OBSERVE ALL THREE ELECTIONS AND 
ARE COORDINATING OUR EFFORTS WITH OTHER DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS. 
 
ROTH 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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