US embassy cable - 04PRETORIA3539

UNCLAS PRETORIA 003539 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR OFFICE OF GLOBAL AIDS COORDINATOR, JO'NEIL 
STATE ALSO FOR G/PDOBRIANSKY, AF/S, AF/EPS/SDRIANO 
AID FOR GLOBAL BUREAU APETERSON 
AID ALSO FOR GH/OHA/CCARINO, RROGERS 
HHS FOR THE OFFICE OF GLOBAL HEALTH AFFAIRS, WSTEIGER 
CDC FOR EMCCRAY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KHIV, SOCI, KSCA, SF 
SUBJECT:  NEW SOUTH AFRICAN AIDS STATISTICS 
 
1)On 27 July, 2004, Statistics South Africa, a government 
statistics agency, issued a report estimating HIV prevalence in 
South Africa to be 15.2% in 2004 compared with 14.79% in 2003, 
13.05% in 2000 and only 3.82% in 1994. According to the report, 
AIDS has claimed the lives of an estimated 1.7 million South Africans 
 
2)The same report estimates the population of South Africa 
to be 46 586 607 in the middle of 2004.  Without the AIDS epidemic 
c 
South Africa's population would have been 48.3 million. 
 
3)The percentage of AIDS deaths increased from 6.8% in 1995 
to 34.4% in 2000 and is projected to be 50.8% in 2005. HIV prevalence 
among antenatal clinic attendees has risen from only 0.7% 
in 1990 to 4.0% in 1993, 17.0% in 1997 and 26.5% in 2002. 
 
4)The 2002 provincial prevalence varied from a low of 12.4% in 
the Western Cape to a high of 36.5% in KwaZulu-Natal. The 
prevalence rates for the other provinces were 15.1% for Northern 
Cape, 15.16% for Limpopo, 23.6% in the Eastern Cape, 26.2% 
for North West, 28.6% in Mpumalanga, 28.8% in the Free State 
and 31.6% in Gauteng. 
 
5)The statistics SA report estimates that 3.83 million South 
Africans are HIV positive, compared with 5.3 million estimated by 
UNAIDS.  The Estimated death toll of 1.7 million is 
considerably less then the 3 million estimated by the U.S. Census 
Bureau. 
 
6)Comment:  Differences in assumptions and methodology underlie 
lie 
the variance in HIV/AIDS statistics.  We expect the Statistics South 
Africa report to be used as evidence by those who claim that the 
epidemic in South Africa has been exaggerated.  Post tends to favor 
the methedology used by UNAIDS and the U.S. Census Bureau because 
these organisations use various basic data sources.  By any measure, 
the HIV prevalence in South Africa is staggering and continues to 
grow at an alarming rate.  End Comment. 
 
MILOVANOVIC