US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2455

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002455 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
WHA/CCA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, CU, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT AND NGOS UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT 
CUBAN DEMOCRACY 
 
REF: SECSTATE 152813 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.5 
(d) 
 
1. (C) President Hugo Chavez's support for Fidel Castro and 
antagonism towards the United States is well documentd and 
makes GOV support for a democratic transition in Cuba 
unfeasible. The cooperation that exists between Castro and 
Chavez is extensive, as evidenced by the over 10,000 Cuban 
doctors and teachers working in Venezuela and the amount of 
subsidized oil flowing from Venezuela into Cuba. Chavez,s 
regard for Castro is deeply rooted and unlikely to change in 
the foreseeable future. 
 
2. (C) Chavez and his supporters, as well as those who oppose 
his presidency, are furiously campaigning for the August 15 
presidential referendum to determine if Chavez is to finish 
out the last 2 years of his presidency. Venezuelan civil 
society and NGOs, who might otherwise be supportive of 
efforts to hasten democracy in Cuba, are concentrating their 
efforts on a democratic resolution to the political tensions 
in Venezuela. While the political situation remains unstable 
in Venezuela, local NGOs are unlikely to divert resources to 
Cuba. 
 
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Comment 
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3. (C) Chavez,s relationship to Castro and political 
tensions in Venezuela rule out GOV and NGO participation to 
hasten democratic reform in Cuba. The August 15 referendum 
and possible presidential election a month afterwards are the 
focal point of Venezuela,s political energy. In the 
aftermath, Venezuela will likely face some degree of 
political uncertainty or instability. The GOV and local NGOs 
are unlikely to participate in any democratic efforts in Cuba 
through the end of 2004 regardless of the outcome of the 
referendum and possible elections. 
Shapiro 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02455 - CONFIDENTIAL