US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2432

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002432 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION UNITES BEHIND GOVERNANCE ACCORD 
 
REF: CARACAS 2248 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Abelardo A. Arias for Reason 1.5 (d). 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) The Coordinadora Democratica is calling on Venezuelans 
to sign its National Accord for Social Justice and Democratic 
Peace August 1.  Coordinadora leaders publicly signed the 
document, which establishes a broad framework for an 
opposition-led transition government, should President Chavez 
be recalled, on July 25.  The concise document outlines 
principles of unity, reconstruction, reconciliation, and 
peace and recommends broad political, economic, and social 
reforms.  The Accord formally recommends a primary election 
to determine the unified opposition candidate in a follow-on 
presidential election, who would promise not to seek 
immediate re-election in 2006.  End summary. 
 
--------------- 
A United Accord 
--------------- 
 
2. (U) Coordinadora Democratica leaders from 60 political 
parties and civil society organizations signed the National 
Accord for Social Justice and Democratic Peace, also called 
the Governance Accord or Pact, on July 25.  The opposition 
leaders sat on the stage as actress Eva Gutierrez read the 
four-page document, which outlines broad themes and goals for 
an opposition-led transition government.  Unity is the 
overall theme, while reconstruction, reconciliation, and 
peace are core principles of the Accord.  The Coordinadora 
leaders then called upon all supporters to sign the Accord on 
August 1 at any of the 8,330 voting centers around the 
country.  Beyond signing the Accord, this opposition event 
will allow people to verify where they are to vote August 15. 
 (Note: This verification is a major opposition concern since 
it was learned that the National Electoral Council (CNE) had 
changed the location where more than one million voters are 
to go.) 
 
3. (U) The Accord, designed to "establish the foundation to 
the solutions of the significant problems of Venezuela," 
outlines broad goals in five major areas: social issues, 
economic recovery, political and constitutional reforms, the 
judicial system, and international relations.  The Accord 
proposes immediate social programs to relieve hunger and 
unemployment, an improvement in health and education systems, 
and an emergency plan to protect citizens' security.  The 
economic goals focus on the recovery of the petroleum sector, 
but avoid direct mention of privatization or foreign 
investment. 
 
4. (U) The Accord's proposed political reforms focus on 
constitutional reform, such as the reduction in presidential 
power, the focus on decentralization, and the reform of the 
military.  In addition, the proposed political reforms call 
for the re-establishment of a bicameral legislature and the 
creation of a run-off presidential election.  The judicial 
goals include a declaration of emergency on the judicial 
system, a referendum on the Supreme Court law, and a 
reassessment of the appointment process for judges.  The 
Accord also recommends a foreign policy strategy that 
advances the strategic interests of the country and respects 
international conventions.  The Accord and Plan Consenso 
cover many common themes (reftel).  However, the Accord makes 
broad recommendations and sets out guiding principles for an 
opposition-led transition government compared to the more 
specific, action-oriented Plan Consenso Pais. 
 
------------------------------- 
Opposition Primary Implications 
------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) The Accord states that the opposition will hold a 
primary election to choose a unified, opposition candidate 
for a follow-on presidential election.  It requires that the 
 
chosen candidate commit to not seek immediate re-election in 
2006.  Alfredo Larrazabal, Sumate leader in charge of the 
primaries, told poloff on July 28 that this re-election 
commitment is a "moral obligation" and that it will have 
little effect on who is a candidate for the opposition 
primary.  The Accord, however, does not specify whether the 
primary will be open or closed, nor when it will take place. 
(Note: An open primary would permit all registered voters to 
participate while a closed primary would only allow persons 
who signed to recall the President to participate.) 
Larrazabal said the group organizing the primary has 
maintained their recommendation of August 29 as the date of 
the referendum. 
 
--------------------- 
The Opposition Unites 
--------------------- 
 
6. (U) At the Accord's unveiling, opposition leaders joined 
and raised hands in a symbolic show of unity after the 
official release of the Accord.  Media reports portray a 
unified opposition, determined to address the issues and 
present a viable alternative to the Chavez administration. 
Henrique Salas Roemer, Carabobo State governor and possible 
primary candidate, said that this Accord unites the country 
and creates a legitimate process to choose an opposition 
unified candidate.  Julio Borges, President of Primero 
Justicia, said the Accord focuses the referendum campaign on 
the problems of Venezuela and provides solutions. 
 
7. (C) Aurelio Concheso, President of the libertarian think 
tank Center for the Dissemination of Economic Information 
(CEDICE), told poloff on June 29 that the Governance Accord 
is a tangible sign of the opposition's unity.  He asserted 
that the Accord is a political strategy that unites the 
opposition.  More important than the Mendoza-Borges-Salas 
embrace, Concheso believes that the unity demonstrated by 
leaders from Bandera Roja (a left-wing, former guerrilla 
party), Fedecamaras (Venezuela's umbrella business 
organization), and the CTV (the Venezuelan Workers' 
Confederation) is essential to opposition success.  Concheso 
prognosticated that the left-leaning parties would be given 
socially-sensitive ministries (i.e. health and education), 
the center-based parties would control national security and 
international relations ministries (i.e. Defense, Foreign 
Relations), and the right-aligned parties would lead fiscal 
and monetary institutions (i.e. Finance Ministry). 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
8. (C) The Governance Accord is a tangible demonstration of 
unity by a politically diverse opposition.  The broad scope 
of the Accord provides a framework and a set of principles to 
guide an opposition-led transition government.  The most 
controversial point in the Accord will be the statement that 
an opposition transition president must commit to not run for 
re-election in 2006.  This small clause, if honored, would 
influence the electoral primary landscape, most likely 
eliminating Henrique Salas Roemer (who wants to run also in 
2006) and further elevating Enrique Mendoza's candidacy. 
McFarland 
 
 
NNNN 
      2004CARACA02432 - CONFIDENTIAL