US embassy cable - 01HARARE2567

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002567 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF, AF/S, AND EPS; ALSO FOR EB 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/06 
TAGS: PREL, ECON, CG, ZI 
SUBJECT: PROPOSAL FOR LIMITED, SPECIFIED TECHNOLOGY 
SANCTIONS FOR ZIMBABWE 
 
REF: (A) LUSAKA 2532, (B)IIR 6926 005701 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  IN ADDITION TO ASSET SEIZURE AND 
TRAVEL SANCTIONS FOCUSED ON A SMALL NUMBER OF TOP GOZ 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02567  01 OF 03  301518Z 
OFFICIALS IMPLICATED IN POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND THE 
BREAKDOWN OF THE RULE OF LAW (REF A), THE HARARE COUNTRY 
TEAM HAS ALSO EXPLORED WHAT VIABLE TECHNOLOGY/DUAL USE 
SANCTIONS MIGHT BE CONSIDERED.  IDENTIFICATION OF ANY 
MEANINGFUL SANCTIONS THAT WOULD NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT 
CRITICAL POPULATION GROUPS HAS BEEN DIFFICULT.  THE LOW- 
TECH NATURE OF ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMY, THE ZIMBABWE DEFENSE 
FORCE'S (ZDF) DEPENDENCE ON (FORMER) EAST-BLOC HARDWARE, 
AND THE LACK OF INFORMATION ON COMMERCIAL LINKS BETWEEN 
PARASTATAL/ZANU-PF COMPANIES AND U.S. SUPPLIERS ARE 
IMPEDIMENTS TO TIGHTLY FOCUSED SANCTIONS THAT COULD 
PINCH THE ZANU-PF RINGLEADERS WITHOUT INFLICTING SERIOUS 
COLLATERAL DAMAGE ON THE ECONOMY. 
 
2. (C) SUMMARY CONTINUED.  WE HAVE IDENTIFIED A SHORT 
LIST OF OUTMODED U.S. EQUIPMENT WITHIN THE ZDF INVENTORY 
THAT COULD BE TARGETED, BUT TO MINIMAL EFFECT.  WE WILL 
FORWARD A LIST OF ZANU-PF-OWNED COMPANIES TO THE 
DEPARTMENT TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS INFORMATION IN 
WASHINGTON OR ELSEWHERE ON LINKS TO U.S. SUPPLIERS.  UN 
STUDIES ON EXPLOITATION OF THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF 
CONGO'S (DRC) RESOURCES MAY OFFER ANOTHER, MORE 
INTERNATIONAL APPROACH.  EVEN HERE WE WILL NEED TO TREAD 
CAREFULLY, SINCE MANY PARASTATAL/ZANU-PF FIRMS DEAL IN 
CONSUMER OR SERVICE PRODUCTS.  SANCTIONS ON THESE WOULD 
RISK GENERATING UNEMPLOYMENT AND FURTHER SLOWDOWN OF THE 
ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY, CREATING THE IMPRESSION AMONG 
ZIMBABWEANS THAT THE U.S. DOES NOT DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN 
BABY AND BATH.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02567  01 OF 03  301518Z 
BACKGROUND 
---------- 
 
3.  (C) THE EMBASSY'S CAREFUL PREPARATIONS FOR Y2K 
REVEALED INTERESTING INSIGHTS INTO ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMY. 
BECAUSE OF INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS IMPOSED DURING THE 
UDI PERIOD, ZIMBABWE WAS FORCED TO BECOME AS SELF- 
RELIANT AS POSSIBLE.  ONE RESULT WAS A RELATIVELY LOW- 
TECH APPROACH TO BOTH THE MANUFACTURING AND SERVICE 
SECTORS.  GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY MARCHED FORWARD BUT ZIMBABWE 
DID NOT.  MUCH OF ITS TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING 
REMAINS TECHNOLOGICALLY STUCK IN THE 1960'S, 1970'S OR 
1980'S, DEPENDING UPON THE SECTOR IN QUESTION.  THIS 
REMAINS TRUE OF THE MILITARY ESTABLISHMENT AS WELL -- 
OUR Y2K SURVEY INDICATED THAT THERE WERE LESS THAN 100 
COMPUTERS IN THE MOD, ALMOST ALL OF THESE STAND-ALONES 
AND MANY NOT COMPATIBLE. 
 
4.  (C) SINCE INDEPENDENCE, SOME SECTORS HAVE MODERNIZED 
DUE TO FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND THE AVAILABILITY OF UP-TO- 
DATE TECHNOLOGY.  FOREIGN INVESTORS LAUNCHED SEVERAL 
WORLD CLASS MINING OPERATIONS (SOME NOW CLOSED).  THE 
COMMERCIAL FARMING SECTOR, WHICH IMPORTS MANY OF ITS 
CHEMICAL AND MECHANICAL INPUTS, ALSO TAKES A BACK SEAT 
TO NO ONE.  HOWEVER, BOTH OF THESE SECTORS HAVE SUFFERED 
SHARP DOWNTURNS DUE TO UNREALISTIC EXCHANGE RATES, THE 
CONCOMITANT UNAVAILABILITY OF FOREX, AND UNENLIGHTENED 
GOZ POLICIES ACROSS THE BOARD.  ALREADY ON THE ROPES, 
THESE SECTORS WILL BE FURTHER WEAKENED BY EXTERNAL 
SANCTIONS.  THE MEDICAL SECTOR ALSO ENJOYED SIGNIFICANT 
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES, ALTHOUGH MANY OF THESE ARE IN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02567  01 OF 03  301518Z 
THE PROCESS OF BEING ROLLED BACK BY A DEARTH OF FUNDING 
AND A LACK OF SPARE PARTS.  (A RECENT NEWS ACCOUNT 
INDICATED THAT 100 PATIENTS IN BULAWAYO ARE AT RISK 
BECAUSE THE DIALYSIS MACHINERY THEY NEED HAS BROKEN 
DOWN.)  IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THIS IS OFF LIMITS. 
 
------------------ 
MILITARY SANCTIONS 
------------------ 
 
5.  (C) IN RECENT YEARS THE ZDF HAS SHOPPED FOR MOST OF 
ITS MILITARY HARDWARE IN EITHER CHINA OR THE FORMER EAST 
BLOC.  ACQUISITIONS FROM THE WEST HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY 
RARE.  THE ZDF MAINTAINS IN ITS INVENTORY A FEW 
VENERABLE AIRCRAFT OF U.S. MANUFACTURE, INCLUDING TWELVE 
BELL 412 JET RANGERS, EIGHT DAKOTA FIXED-WING 
TRANSPORTS, AND TWO CESSNA 235'S.  VERY FEW OF THESE ARE 
CURRENTLY AIRWORTHY DUE TO A LACK OF SPARE PARTS. 
SENIOR ZDF OFFICERS HAVE RECENTLY TOLD US THAT THEY 
WOULD LIKE TO GET THIS EQUIPMENT ALOFT, PREFERABLY WITH 
U.S. ASSISTANCE.  HOWEVER, THE ROOT OF THE PROBLEM IS 
MONEY RATHER THAN TECHNOLOGY, SINCE SPARES FOR ALL OF 
THESE AIRCRAFT ARE READILY AVAILABLE ON THE OPEN MARKET 
WITHOUT END USER CERTIFICATION, ON A CASH BASIS.  THE 
ZDF'S BUDGET CRUNCH, AND THE DECISION BORN OF NECESSITY 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6738 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02567  02 OF 03  301519Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  INL-00   USNW-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00 
      EB-00    EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   ITC-01   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   MED-07 
      AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00 
      STR-00   TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  R-00     EPAE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /018W 
                  ------------------18EAE1  301519Z /38 
O 301508Z AUG 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9602 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 002567 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF, AF/S, AND EPS; ALSO FOR EB 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/06 
TAGS: PREL, ECON, CG, ZI 
SUBJECT: PROPOSAL FOR LIMITED, SPECIFIED TECHNOLOGY 
SANCTIONS FOR ZIMBABWE 
 
TO PUT MONEY INTO SALARIES AND BENEFITS RATHER THAN 
UPGRADING OR MAINTAINING HARDWARE, IS THE ROOT ISSUE 
(REF B), NOT THE AVAILABILITY OF PARTS. 
 
------------------- 
DUAL USE TECHNOLOGY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02567  02 OF 03  301519Z 
------------------- 
 
6.  (C) ZIMBABWE MILITARY INDUSTRIES (ZMI), ANOTHER 
VESTIGE OF THE UDI POLICY OF SELF-RELIANCE, MANUFACTURE 
A RANGE OF MILITARY EQUIPMENT.  OUTPUT IS TAILORED FOR 
THE ZDF AND OTHER SECURITY SERVICES.  UNIFORMS AND KIT 
ARE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ITEMS.  LIGHT WEAPONRY 
PRODUCTION INCLUDES HAND GRENADES, SMALL ARMS MUNITIONS, 
40 MM ROCKET LAUNCHERS AND ROCKETS, 60 MM MORTAR TUBES 
AND SHELLS, 81 MM AND 120 MM MORTAR SHELLS.  OTHER 
WEAPONS SYSTEMS AND HEAVY MUNITIONS ARE ALL IMPORTED. 
WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO IDENTIFY ONLY ONE U.S. LINK TO THE 
ZMI IMPORT/EXPORT CYCLE, THE EXPORT OF APPROXIMATELY 
20,000 ROUNDS OF SMALL CALIBER HUNTING AMMUNITION TO A 
CALIFORNIA BUYER. 
 
------------- 
OTHER OPTIONS 
------------- 
 
7.  (C) BOTH SENIOR MILITARY AND ZANU-PF OFFICIALS, IN 
ADDITION TO THE RULING PARTY ITSELF, SHARE OWNERSHIP IN 
A DIVERSE BUSINESS EMPIRE THAT RANGES FROM 
TRANSPORTATION TO TOURISM TO FINANCE TO MINING AND 
MANUFACTURE TO TELECOMMUNICATIONS.  WE HAVE ACQUIRED A 
USEFUL STUDY DONE IN 2000 THAT LISTS THESE HOLDINGS AND 
THAT REVEALS SOME OF THE ZANU-PF OFFICIALS INVOLVED 
BEHIND THE SCENES, INCLUDING IN VENTURES IN THE DRC. 
 
8.  (C) FOCUSING ON THE DRC ECONOMIC CONNECTIONS 
(TECHNOLOGICALLY OR OTHERWISE) SHOULD BE CONSIDERED, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  02567  02 OF 03  301519Z 
SINCE THE REVENUES FROM ZIMBABWEAN VENTURES THERE FLOW 
INTO THE PRIVATE ACCOUNTS OF ZANU-PF INSIDERS AND NOT 
THE ZIMBABWEAN TREASURY.  THE LOSS OF THESE REVENUES 
WOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY BUT 
WOULD BE FELT DIRECTLY BY MUGABE CRONIES.  OSLEG LTD., A 
HOLDING COMPANY, BOASTS ZDF FORCE COMMANDER ZVINAVASHE, 
MOD PERMANENT SECRETARY TRUST MAPOSA, AND SPEAKER OF THE 
PARLIAMENT MNANGAGWA ON ITS BOARD OF DIRECTORS.  OSLEG 
HAS INTERESTS IN A RANGE OF DRC MINING AND TIMBER 
VENTURES: COSLEG, ORYX ZIMCOM, PETRA DIAMONDS LTD., 
COMIEX CONGO SARL, SENGAMINES/MIBA, TSHIBUA KIMBERLITE 
DEPOSITS, AND SENGA-SENGA ALLUVIAL MINE. 
 
9.  (C) WE WILL PROVIDE AVAILABLE DOCUMENTATION TO AF/S 
TO DETERMINE IF IT IS POSSIBLE TO USE COMMERCE OR 
TREASURY DATABASES TO ESTABLISH U.S. LINKAGES WITH ZANU- 
PF BUSINESS INTERESTS LOCATED IN ZIMBABWE OR DRC.  THIS 
MAY BE THE BEST HOPE OF IDENTIFYING TECHNOLOGIES OR 
OTHER INSTRUMENTS THAT COULD GIVE TECHNOLOGY SANCTIONS 
TEETH.  CROSS-REFERENCING WITH UN STUDIES THAT TRACE THE 
OUTSIDE EXPLOITATION OF DRC NATURAL RESOURCES MAY ALSO 
REVEAL ADDITIONAL LINKAGES AND PROVIDE THE IMPETUS TO 
PUSH FOR INTERNATIONAL RATHER THAN BILATERAL MEASURES. 
 
---------------------------- 
LIKELY RESULTS ON GOZ POLICY 
---------------------------- 
 
10.  (C) UNLESS SIGNIFICANT LINKAGES BETWEEN ZANU-PF/ZDF 
COMPANIES CAN BE ESTABLISHED, COUNTRY TEAM DOES NOT 
BELIEVE THAT TECHNOLOGY/DUAL-USE SANCTIONS WOULD HAVE A 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  02567  02 OF 03  301519Z 
MEASURABLE IMPACT ON PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS INNER 
CIRCLE, OR RESULT IN A CHANGE IN GOZ POLICY.  MUGABE 
WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY REACT LOUDLY TO THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF 
SANCTIONS, HARMFUL OR NOT, AND ATTEMPT TO BEND THESE TO 
HIS OWN PROPAGANDA PURPOSES.  WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE 
MEANINGFUL RETALIATORY MEASURES, ALTHOUGH THE GOZ COULD 
THEORETICALLY TAKE ACTION AGAINST THE APPROXIMATELY 45 
AMERICAN COMPANIES OR THEIR REPRESENTATIVES OPERATING 
HERE. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
11.  (C) ECONOMIC/TECHNOLOGY SANCTIONS LEVIED ON 
ZIMBABWE MUST BE CAREFULLY FOCUSED TO AVOID COLLATERAL 
DAMAGE TO AN ALREADY IMPLODING ECONOMY.  IN RECENT 
REMARKS TO THE PRESS IN SOUTH AFRICA, MDC LEADER MORGAN 
TSVANGARAI REPEATED THAT AT THIS TIME HE OPPOSES 
 
SIPDIS 
INTERNATIONAL (ECONOMIC) SANCTIONS, SINCE THE ZIMBABWEAN 
ECONOMY CANNOT BEAR THE STRAIN.  IT IS OUR VIEW THAT 
TECHNOLOGY OR ECONOMIC SANCTIONS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL 
OR EFFECT OF CREATING ADDITIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT AND 
ERODING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY WOULD BE SEEN BY MOST 
ZIMBABWEANS AS SPITEFUL RATHER THAN CONSTRUCTIVE. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6739 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02567  03 OF 03  301519Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  INL-00   USNW-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00 
      EB-00    EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   ITC-01   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   MED-07 
      AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00 
      PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00 
      STR-00   TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  R-00     EPAE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /018W 
                  ------------------18EAE3  301519Z /38 
O 301508Z AUG 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9603 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 002567 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF, AF/S, AND EPS; ALSO FOR EB 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/06 
TAGS: PREL, ECON, CG, ZI 
SUBJECT: PROPOSAL FOR LIMITED, SPECIFIED TECHNOLOGY 
SANCTIONS FOR ZIMBABWE 
 
ROTH 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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