US embassy cable - 01HARARE2554

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002554 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S, AF/EPS 
TREASURY FOR ED BARBER, C WILKINSON 
USDOC FOR 4510 ERIC HENDERSON 
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/06 
TAGS: EAGR, ECON, ETRD, PHUM, PGOV 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS BEING BACKED TO THE 
WALL 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY ECON/COMM OFFICER MARK PROKOP, REASON 1.5 (B), 
(D) 
 
1.  (C) ON AUGUST 28 THREE COMMERCIAL FARMERS REPRESENTING 
THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) PAID A CALL ON THE DCM AND 
ECONOFF TO DESCRIBE THE SERIOUSNESS OF THEIR COLLECTIVE 
PLIGHT AND TO ADVISE US THAT IN THEIR VIEW TIME WAS RUNNING 
OUT TO HALT MUGABE'S ACTIONS THAT ARE DESTROYING ZIMBABWE'S 
ECONOMIC FOUNDATION.  THEY ALSO REQUESTED THE USG VIEW OF THE 
SITUATION, AND ADVISED US THAT THEY WERE MAKING SIMILAR CALLS 
AT OTHER PRINCIPAL MISSIONS INCLUDING THE UK, GERMANY, THE 
EU, THE BELGIANS AND SOME OF THE NORDIC COUNTRIES.  THE 
VISITORS WERE WILLIAM HUGHES, CFU VICE PRESIDENT FOR REGIONS; 
MACK CRAWFORD, CFU REPRESENTATIVE FOR MATABELELAND; AND DAVE 
DUBARE, A MATABELELAND FARMER AND CFU MEMBER.  THEY BELIEVE 
FIRMLY THAT PRESIDENTS MBEKI, MOGAE AND CHISSANO HOLD THE KEY 
TO CHANGING MUGABE'S PATH, AS THEIR COUNTERPARTS DID YEARS 
AGO WHEN THEIR CONCERTED ACTION FORCED IAN SMITH FROM POWER. 
 
2.  (C) THE CORE MESSAGE THEY DELIVERED WAS A SIMPLE ONE: 
AFTER 18 MONTHS OF HARASSMENT AND EXTREME FINANCIAL AND 
PSYCHOLOGICAL PRESSURE, THE COUNTRY'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE 
CLOSE TO THE POINT OF THROWING IN THE TOWEL, EITHER 
COLLECTIVELY OR INDIVIDUALLY.  THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN 
CONSIDERABLY IN RECENT WEEKS, AS EVENTS IN CHINHOYI, HWEDZA, 
DHOMA AND MATABELELAND INDICATE.  THE FARMERS DESCRIBED A 
NUMBER OF DIFFERENT TACTICS BEING USED IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS 
BY THE GOZ TO DRIVE THEM OUT OF BUSINESS OR OFF THEIR FARMS. 
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FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND IN THE AREA BETWEEN 
HARARE AND MUTARE, WIDESPREAD BURNING OF WINTER CATTLE 
GRAZING PASTURES HAS BEEN CARRIED OUT TO DESTROY THE 
VIABILITY OF BEEF OPERATIONS (THE FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE 
OUTBREAK HAS SHUT DOWN ALL CATTLE TRANSPORT - SO RELIEF BY 
HERD RELOCATION IS RULED OUT).  AT THE SAME TIME FIRES HAVE 
BEEN SET IN ADJOINING COMMUNAL AREAS TO DRIVE PEASANTS ONTO 
THE RANCHERS' PROPERTIES, WHERE THEY CONSIDER THE STOCK TO BE 
THERE FOR THE TAKING.  ANOTHER TACTIC WAS MAKING SURE THAT AN 
INVADER'S SETTLEMENT IS ON EACH AND EVERY COMMERCIAL FARM, 
AND THAT AT LEAST ONE AUTOMATIC WEAPON IS AT EACH SETTLEMENT 
TO BE SHOWN TO FARM WORKERS TO REMIND THEM OF THEIR FATE 
SHOULD THEY INTERFERE WITH THE INVADERS OR VOTE WRONGLY IN 
ANY UPCOMING ELECTIONS.  THE FARMERS POINTED OUT THAT THE 
GOVERNMENT'S ARRAY OF EVOLVING TACTICS WAS CLEARLY DESIGNED 
AND EXECUTED TO SKATE BELOW THE RADAR SCREEN OF INTERNATIONAL 
ATTENTION BROUGHT ON BY VIOLENCE, AND ALL AGREED THAT THE GOZ 
HAD BEEN FAIRLY SUCCESSFUL OF LATE IN THIS REGARD. 
 
3.  (C) THE FARMERS TOLD US THAT OUT OF FEAR, EXASPERATION 
AND SIMPLE FATIGUE, A COMMUNITY OF FARMERS IN THE VIRGINIA 
AREA (ABOUT 100 K EAST OF HARARE AND AN AREA THAT SAW MUCH 
VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION AND A NUMBER OF MURDERS IN THE RUNUP 
TO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS LAST YEAR) HAD CUT AN INDEPENDENT 
DEAL WITH THE INVADERS, GIVING UP 30 TO 40 PERCENT OF THEIR 
LAND JUST TO BE LEFT ALONE AND IN PEACE.  THIS WAS THE FIRST 
WE HAD HEARD OF SUCH A DEVELOPMENT, AND THE FARMERS 
REPRESENTING THE UNION CLEARLY UNDERSTOOD THAT SUCH ACTIONS 
UNDERMINED NATIONAL COLLECTIVE EFFORTS AND PLAYED INTO THE 
WISHES OF THE RULING PARTY.  AS ONE OF THEM QUIPPED ON THEIR 
WAY OUT, "UNITED WE NEGOTIATE, DIVIDED WE BEG." 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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4.  (C) THE FARMERS ALSO POINTED OUT THAT THE RAPIDLY 
DETERIORATING AND HYPERINFLATIONARY ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, 
SPURRED BY THE RAPIDLY DECLINING ZIMDOLLAR, MAY ALSO PUT ANY 
OF THOSE FARMERS WHO REMAIN OUT OF BUSINESS.  "WELL OVER HALF 
OF OUR INPUTS ARE IMPORTED, AND WE JUST CANNOT PAY 700, 1000 
OR 1500 ZIMDOLLARS (THE LATTER A YEAR END RATE PREDICTION) TO 
THE U.S. DOLLAR AND STAY IN BUSINESS."  THEY CLOSED WITH THE 
POINT THAT THEY AND THEIR COLLEAGUES ARE BEING PUSHED TO THE 
BRINK, AND WITH A PLEA THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, WHEN 
THE POLITICAL ISSUES ARE FINALLY DECIDED, BE PREPARED TO AID 
AGRICULTURE'S RESUSCITATION VIA A SIZABLE HARD CURRENCY 
FACILITY PRICED AT REASONABLE RATES TO GET THE INDUSTRY BACK 
ON ITS FEET. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT: WE DIFFER WITH NONE OF THE ANALYSIS OR 
CONCLUSIONS REACHED BY THE FARMERS.  THEIR RECOGNITION OF THE 
GUILE AND TACTICS ARRAYED AGAINST THEM IS NOT FLAWED, AND 
THEIR COMMERCIALLY-BASED ECONOMIC SUGGESTIONS ARE REASONABLE 
ONES.  WE SKETCHED OUT USG CONCERNS AND INTERESTS, AND SOME 
OF THE POSSIBLE PATHS FORWARD.  OUR CONTACTS WITH THIS GROUP 
WILL CONTINUE, AS BOTH SIDES FOUND IT WORTHWHILE, EVEN IN THE 
CONTEXT OF A VERY BLEAK OUTLOOK. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3805 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02554  02 OF 02  291834Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AGRE-00  AID-00   CIAE-00  CTME-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      EB-00    EUR-00   EXIM-01  E-00     VC-00    FRB-00   H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   ITC-01   L-00     AC-01    NSAE-00  OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      SSO-00   SS-00    STR-00   T-00     USIE-00  PMB-00   DRL-02 
      G-00     SAS-00     /008W 
                  ------------------187056  291834Z /45 
P 291436Z AUG 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9587 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
USDOC WASHDC 
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002554 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S, AF/EPS 
TREASURY FOR ED BARBER, C WILKINSON 
USDOC FOR 4510 ERIC HENDERSON 
STATE PASS USTR/RWHITTAKER 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/06 
TAGS: EAGR, ECON, ETRD, PHUM, PGOV, ZI 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02554  02 OF 02  291834Z 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS BEING BACKED TO THE 
WALL 
 
ROTH 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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