US embassy cable - 04MAPUTO1001

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MAPUTO 001001 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
AF FOR A/S CONSTANCE NEWMAN 
S/GAC FOR AMB TOBIAS 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO MCC FOR TBRIGGS 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO USTR FOR AMB SHINER 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM, PREL, PGOV, ETRD, MZ, RENAMO, Elections 04, FRELIMO 
SUBJECT: MOZAMBICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES TO VISIT UNITED 
STATES 
 
 
1. (SBU) The visits to the United States of ruling party 
FRELIMO presidential candidate Armando Guebuza and opposition 
party RENAMO Presidential candidate Afonso Dhlakama offer an 
opportunity to learn about the positions of the two main 
candidates in what should be tightly contested December 
elections in Mozambique. Likely third-party (PDD) 
presidential candidate, Raul Domingos, will attend the 
Democratic National Convention and also visit Washington. 
Post understands that meetings for Guebuza have been 
scheduled with USTR, MCC, S/GAC and CCA. Guebuza will be the 
first candidate to visit Washington. We expect him to be 
particularly interested in discussing Mozambique's 
participation in the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS 
Relief (PEPFAR), eligibility for the Millennium Challenge 
Account (MCA) and bilateral trade issues, such as prospects 
for a US-Mozambique FTA. 
 
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THE CONTEXT OF THE VISITS 
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2. (SBU) Mozambique is rightly considered a post-conflict 
success story. Since the signing of the 1992 Peace Accords 
that ended sixteen years of civil war, Mozambique has made 
significant progress in promoting economic reforms and 
consolidating democracy. In December, Mozambique will hold 
its third multi-party presidential elections since 
independence in 1975. The current constitutionally-elected 
president, Joaquim Chissano, will step down after having 
served two terms. Chissano and the leadership of FRELIMO 
dominate policy-making and implementation. During November 
2003 municipal elections, FRELIMO won all but 4 of the 
country's 33 mayorships US-Mozambican bilateral relations 
have been excellent under Chissano.Though the electoral 
campaign does not officially begin until October 17, both 
FRELIMO and RENAMO party officials have already hit the 
campaign trail. Guebuza and Chissano have been traveling 
extensively in the Northern and Central provinces of 
Mozambique, focusing on areas of traditional RENAMO support. 
Most recently, Guebuza visited the populous Northern province 
of Nampula, the site of RENAMO's best showing in the 
municipal elections. These visits are key to increasing 
Guebuza's name recognition, particularly in rural areas that 
have generally served as RENAMO's base. The actual elections 
will be held on December 1 and 2. The USG is supporting the 
electoral process through financial assistance to the Carter 
Center and domestic observer groups. As with the municipal 
elections, post will send observers to key municipalities 
throughout the country. 
 
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BIOGRAPHIC INFORMATION 
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3. (SBU) Though Guebuza was not Chissano's personal choice as 
candidate, he has indicated that he is likely to continue 
current government policies if elected. Post has also heard 
that a number of key ministers are likely to retain their 
positions in a Guebuza administration. Key themes in recent 
addresses have included combating corruption, reducing 
poverty, and creating a national entrepreneurial class as a 
way to make the country's climate attractive for foreign 
investment and economic growth. Touting the importance of 
human rights and freedom of expression, Guebuza has in the 
past praised the United States for its democratic values. 
However, Guebuza is also known as nationalist and has on 
occasion called for the "Mozambicanization" of businesses. A 
central theme for Guebuza has been that the GRM reach out to 
the rural areas where 80% of the Mozambican community 
resides. Guebuza has demonstrated a depth of understanding of 
business and economic concerns. Despite past government 
experience (including serving as Interior Minister under 
Samora Machel, where he was responsible for the 
implementation of the "24/20" program which gave Portuguese 
residents 24 hours to leave newly independent Mozambique with 
20 kilos of effects), he is also a businessman and one of the 
richest men in Mozambique. In a country where government 
connections and conflicts-of-interest are an integral part of 
doing business, a key test for Guebuza if FRELIMO wins in 
2004 will be the ability to separate personal business 
interests from the broader economic and commercial needs of 
the country. 
 
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KEY BILATERAL ISSUES - IN BRIEF 
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4. (SBU) A) Trade & Investment: Mozambique has yet to take 
full advantage of AGOA, and US trade and investment in 
Mozambique remains small. Currently, only one apparel company 
in Mozambique is exporting under AGOA, with a second company 
expected to begin operations shortly. The prospect of a 
US-Mozambique FTA offers a unique opportunity to deepen the 
trade relationship, but also raises concerns over the 
technical capacity of the Mozambican government to enter into 
negotiations. As an eligible MCC country, Mozambique has an 
opportunity to address a number of the constraints to 
increased trade and investment. It would be interesting to 
hear Guebuza's vision for linking these programs to increased 
trade and investment as a mechanism for reducing poverty. 
B) HIV/AIDS: Mozambique is at a critical stage in its efforts 
to stem the HIV/AIDS epidemic. In Southern Africa, Mozambique 
presents both the greatest challenges and possibly the 
greatest opportunity to become the next Uganda-like success 
in turning around the HIV/AIDS threat. Despite considerable 
efforts to ensure PEPFAR be seen as a collaborative approach 
to addressing the epidemic, our relationship with the 
Minister of Health has at times been tense. Recently articles 
in the local and international press have accused the USG of 
a "unilateralist" approach to combating HIV/AIDS. While 
current Minister of Health Songane is not expected to retain 
his post if Guebuza is elected, it should be stressed that 
the USG views the GRM as a full partner in PEPFAR and is 
making every effort to ensure that our programs compliment 
and support those of the government. 
C) Regional Issues: During his Presidency of the African 
Union (AU), President Chissano was actively engaged on 
broader African issues and sought to use his AU Presidency 
both to build stronger African institutions and to find 
African-led solutions to African problems. Mozambique's 
participation in the AU's peace-keeping operations in Burundi 
is one such example. ACOTA has visited Mozambique twice in 
the past few months. We look forwarding to supporting the GRM 
increase its capacity to contribute to peace-keeping 
operations. 
LA LIME