US embassy cable - 04MAPUTO1000

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MAPUTO 001000 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
STATE FOR AF/S 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM, PGOV, PINR, MZ, Elections 04, Small Political Parties 
SUBJECT: THE WEAK STATE OF SMALL PARTIES IN MOZAMBIQUE 
 
REF: 03 MAPUTO 01664 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY. Facing presidential and legislative elections 
in December of 2004, Mozambique will likely showcase 
impressive two-party competition between the major political 
competitors, FRELIMO and RENAMO-UE. Small third party forces 
are in a weak stage of development and require 
capacity-building so that they may attract a legitimate base 
of support and draw up and articulate sound party principles. 
The only potential bright spot for small independent parties 
may be with the Party for Peace, Democracy, and Development 
(PPD), led by ex-RENAMO member, Raul Domingos. The newly 
passed general elections law will likely create greater 
transparency in the upcoming elections, however opposition 
parties already complain of fraud in the electoral process. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------------- 
A LACKING THIRD PARTY FORCE 
----------------------------- 
2. (U) In advance of the 2004 general elections, econ/poloff 
and political specialist held a series of meetings with 
leaders of small political parties to gauge political 
outlook, assess small party preparation, and seek feedback on 
the recently approved general elections law. FRELIMO, the 
current ruling party, has enjoyed power since Mozambican 
independence in 1975. RENAMO-UE, the major opposition force, 
comprised of RENAMO and ten small parties that together form 
a coalition, is just beginning to get a taste of power, 
showcasing an extremely close presidential race in the 1999 
general elections, and winning mayorship of four of 
thirty-three municipalities in the 2003 municipal elections 
(REFTEL). In 2004, current FRELIMO President Joaquim Chissano 
will step down and a new FRELIMO contender, Armando Guebuza, 
has already taken the campaign block. RENAMO-UE will continue 
to support its perennial presidential contender and party 
leader, Afonso Dhlakama. Although Mozambique has achieved 
generally healthy two-party competition, what it fiercely 
lacks is a legitimate third party force. 
 
----------------------------- 
THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS 
----------------------------- 
3. (SBU) Sadly, many small parties are not able to articulate 
a party platform or speak articulately about party 
priorities. The four parties represented in our discussions, 
PAMOMO - Democratic Party for the Reconciliation of 
Mozambique (independent), PIMO - Independent Party of 
Mozambique (independent), PT - Worker's Party (independent), 
and PCN - National Convention Party (part of RENAMO-UE), 
spent significant time complaining about the state of 
democracy in Mozambique and the unfairness of elections, 
without offering any true solutions to improve the situation. 
Starting out our mission by speaking to PAMOMO leader, Albano 
Maiopue, an attorney and former advisor to Dhlakama, he was 
scathingly critical of the Mozambican democratic system and 
the current state of political affairs. He described the 2003 
municipal elections as a "huge electoral injustice", claiming 
abuses of fraud on the part of FRELIMO and forecasting the 
upcoming election to be even worse. Disappointed by the 
current system, Miopue had no suggestions for improving it, 
only encouraging a greater observation force and greater 
party equality. He repeatedly complained about the lack of 
funds small parties have to work with and how this translates 
into a vacuum for true multiparty competition. With around 
25,000 supporters, PAMOMO holds no seats in the Parliament 
and its strongest support is found in the North (Zambezia, 
Cabo Delgado, and Nampula). Running independently in the 2004 
legislative elections, PAMOMO is not expected to achieve the 
5% vote threshold necessary to put a representative in the 
Parliament. 
 
 
4. (SBU) Similar discussions took place with Malgalhaes 
Ibramugy, Secretary General of PIMO, a second independent 
party. Although PIMO stands for the Independent Party of 
Mozambique, it is also known as the Islamic Party of 
Mozambique, as a vast majority of its members are party to 
the tenants of Islam. The president of the party, Yacub 
Sibindy, who is also the nephew of RENAMO leader Afonso 
Dhlakama, is an outspoken and well-recognized political 
figure throughout the country, who wins significant media 
attention. The party was founded in 1993 when a Muslim group 
of deputies in Parliament established like-minded policies 
and created PIMO. The Constitution forbids parties to be 
established based along religious or tribal lines, however 
PIMO dismisses that it is a religiously-affiliated party. 
Although it runs independently, PIMO won three seats in the 
municipal assemblies during the 2003 elections and runs a 
heavy campaign in the North, where most of its support, 
particularly Muslim support, is found. Describing the current 
registration period as a "fiasco", Ibramugy took stabs at 
FRELIMO governance and explained the "widespread 
intimidation" that occurs throughout the country, stating 
that non-FRELIMO supporters are prevented from registering. 
Calling Mozambican politics a "dirty game", he criticized the 
work of observers and donors as half-hearted, saying the 
international community must "open its eyes" and pay greater 
attention to the entire political process, from the opening 
day of registration to the final announcement of results at a 
national level. Although PIMO unfairly describes the current 
political situation in Mozambique as "unhealthy", it enlists 
broader support than other small parties by putting itself in 
the spotlight. PIMO also has access to greater funding than 
other small parties (source unknown), which may account for 
its limited success. 
 
5. (SBU) The Worker's Party, PT, has not established a broad 
media presence, but gains some strength by representing the 
working masses. PT, a leftist party founded in 1993, is 
independent of RENAMO-UE. Its founder, Miguel Mabote, 
campaigns wearing a helmet, bringing to life the spirit of 
the party. PT, gaining most of its support from the southern 
provinces of Gaza and Inhambane, won seats in the 1998 
municipal elections most likely attributed to RENAMO-UE's 
decision to boycott the elections. In 2003, PT did not win 
any seats in the municipal assemblies. PT described reducing 
unemployment, providing education to the masses, and 
improving health conditions and combating HIV/AIDS as top 
party priorities. Demonstrating a refreshing and optimistic 
view of Mozambique and its political process, Mabote said 
that Mozambique has an important political and economic role 
to play in the region. Although PT exhibited a more promising 
and less accusatory political stance, it still complained of 
a lack of funds to function as an effective third party 
force. PT is not expected to make an impact on the current 
year presidential or legislative electoral outcomes. 
 
6. (SBU) Undeniably the most impressive of the four small 
party leaders, Lutero Simango, President of the National 
Convention Party, is currently a deputy in the National 
Assembly. PCN, a party of intellectuals and academics, joined 
the RENAMO-UE coalition in 2003. Simango's father was a 
senior leader in FRELIMO during the days of Mozambique's 
transition to independence and was murdered by the party for 
allegedly maintaining overly close ties with the Portuguese. 
Simango's brother, Deviz Simango, a member of RENAMO, 
recently won the most contentious mayoral race in the 2003 
municipal elections in Mozambique's second largest city of 
Beira. Simango was complimentary of the new electoral law, 
stating that it will create positive change in the upcoming 
elections. PCN has developed a campaign slogan, "Five 
objectives for Five Years (of governance)". The five 
objectives are: justice, inclusivity, economic participation, 
employment of youth and women, and a united nation. Simango 
stressed that PCN has great internal capacity as a party of 
intellectuals and businessmen. When asked why PCN joined 
RENAMO-UE, Simango stated the party needed a "strong machine" 
that could lend financial support and an image to their small 
group of supporters. With a strong social base, RENAMO-UE was 
the way for PCN to win parliamentary representation. Simango 
believes that with the upcoming changes in government there 
should be a reformed government philosophy that focuses on 
developing the countryside, jump-starting the paralyzed 
economy, and reforming "professional beggars" into 
businessmen. Appearing as the only organized small party with 
a leader competent to present realistic and coherent party 
views, PCN will likely be successful in the 2004 legislative 
elections if it remains part of the RENAMO-UE coalition. 
 
---------------------- 
THE NEW ELECTORAL LAW 
---------------------- 
7. (U) On May 12, 2004, the Parliament approved the new 
general elections law, and soon after, the President of the 
Republic, Joaquim Chissano, signed it into force. With the 
exception of a few articles, most of the innovations in the 
new electoral law were already part of the local elections 
law, however, lessons learned from the 2003 municipal 
elections made way for several important new additions. Those 
articles most likely to affect change are Articles 53, 95, 
and 98. Article 53 allows political party agents monitoring 
the voting operations at polling stations to receive original 
copies of the minutes and result tally sheets, signed and 
stamped. Articles 95 and 98 authorize intermediary counting 
to take place at the provincial level (as per the norm), yet, 
votes must be counted district by district and results must 
be summarized and presented in a chart, district by district, 
and subsequently distributed and posted at all polling 
stations. In theory, these changes will allow greater 
transparency in the process by providing selected party 
representatives with official results at the most basic level 
and validating provincial electoral results by a 
district-level breakdown. These additions came as a 
compromise between FRELIMO and RENAMO-UE directly following 
the 2003 municipal elections. 
 
8. (U) In response to the new law, small parties tend to be 
supportive of Article 53 and denounce Articles 95 and 98 as 
"no new change". The four parties represented in our 
discussions uniformly agree that greater access to official 
results at each polling station is an improvement to 
electoral transparency. On the other hand, small party forces 
believe that district-level breakdown of votes at the 
provincial level will still allow for fraud. How? Parties 
allied with RENAMO, as part of the UE, complain that the 
transportation of ballots from polling stations to provincial 
electoral commission headquarters allows for tampering of the 
process (i.e., the stealing and/or fabrication of votes). 
Additionally, the parties complained that representatives of 
the National Electoral Commission (CNE) and the Technical 
Secretariat for Electoral Administration (STAE), that 
 
SIPDIS 
administer the electoral process, are FRELIMO agents that 
introduce fraud into the process. Finally, parties believe 
that the most significant amount of fraud occurs during the 
country's registration process. As Mozambique just finished 
registration for the 2004 elections, there have been several 
allegations by RENAMO-UE and small parties that RENAMO 
supporters were refused registration. There is also fear 
among the opposition that the 18-day period set aside for 
registration is not enough time to adequately register all 
voters. The opposition has requested a registration 
extension, but the CNE has rejected this proposal. 
 
------------------------- 
ON THE POLITICAL HORIZON 
------------------------- 
9. (SBU) COMMENT: On the heels of the national elections, it 
is clear that FRELIMO and RENAMO-UE will be the only true 
competitors. Although competition between the two major 
parties is likely to be hot, an honorable showing by small, 
independent parties is not expected. The ten small parties 
which form the RENAMO-UE coalition will benefit from the 
support RENAMO-UE wins, and will likely win some legislative 
representation in the Parliament. Independents like PIMO, PT, 
and PAMOMO are unlikely to reach the 5% voter support 
threshold necessary to put a candidate in Parliament. 
10. (SBU) RENAMO-UE and small parties rightly complain and 
contest certain electoral issues that may be cause for fraud 
in the electoral process. However, these forces spend an 
overwhelming amount of their time complaining and pointing 
out "how bad" the situation is, that they generally discredit 
themselves and their parties. Changes in the electoral law 
should lead to a more transparent process in the 2004 
elections. The 2003 municipal elections were declared "free 
and fair" by the European Commission electoral expert group 
and it is expected that the 2004 presidential and legislative 
elections will run smoothly and on time (December 1-2). 
Although it is difficult to predict whether FRELIMO or 
RENAMO-UE will carry the most presidential or legislative 
votes in 2004, there is significant national interest in the 
outcome of the elections. On a small party front, the hope is 
that by the next municipal or presidential/legislative 
elections, more mature, developed, and capable third parties 
will compete and elicit a chance of having their voices heard 
at a national level. Through current USG programs, conducted 
by the International Republican Institute (IRI), this 
capacity-building is currently underway. END COMMENT. 
LA LIME